Gold maintains its record-setting advance early Thursday, after having settled Wednesday above the $4,200 threshold.

Gold could see some profit-taking ahead of Fedspeak

Amidst sustained US Dollar (USD) weakness and persistent demand for safe havens, Gold – a traditional store of value –  extends its record run into the fourth consecutive day on Thursday.

Gold buyers remain defiant as the ongoing trade spat between the United States (US) and China keeps investors on edge, while uncertainty over the US economic prospects in the face of the government shutdown also dent the sentiment around the Greenback.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Wednesday said that “China’s export restrictions were a “global supply-chain power grab” and the US and its allies would not accept the restrictions,” per Reuters.

Meanwhile, a US Treasury official noted that the government shutdown could cost the economy $15 billion per week.

Furthermore, markets’ affirmation of two Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year and concerns about the US labor market amongst the Fed officials bolster the non-yielding Gold at the expense of the buck.

Markets continue to price in roughly 95% probabilities of rate cuts at the Fed’s October and December monetary policy meetings, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.

Looking ahead, speeches from Fed policymakers remain of note in the absence of high-impact US economic releases.

Meanwhile, US-China trade developments and shutdown talks could be closely eyed for further trading incentives in Gold.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold remains more or less the same, with the ‘hot run’ triggering timely bouts of profit-taking, justified by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lurking within the extreme overbought zone, currently near 85.

Meanwhile, Gold settled on Wednesday above the upper boundary of the month-long rising channel, then at $4,184.

However, it remains to be seen if the uptrend sustains, as the natural tendency of the rising channel formation is a break to the downside.

As buyers seem unstoppable for now, the $4,250 psychological level will be next on tap, above which doors will open toward $4,300.

Conversely, rejection at higher levels could trigger a pullback toward the channel support at $4,062.

Ahead of that, the previous day’s low of $4,140 could lend temporary support to buyers.

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its record-breaking advance on Wednesday, trading near $52.60 and up over 2.50% on the day after erasing the previous day’s losses. On Tuesday, Silver posted a fresh all-time high near $53.77 before a sharp pullback triggered brief profit-taking, snapping a four-day winning streak.

The white metal continues to benefit from persistent physical tightness in the London market, where inventories have plunged to record lows, fueling an aggressive short squeeze. This means there’s simply not enough physical Silver to meet demand. Borrowing costs and lease rates have surged as refiners and ETF custodians rush to secure a limited supply, driving prices even higher.

The situation has created a rare gap between London spot and US Comex futures prices. Analysts warn that the London market is operating under severe stress, with some calling it “on the brink of seizure.”

In a recent forecast revision, Bank of America now expects Silver to reach $65 per ounce by 2026, citing deepening structural deficits and continued investor demand. HSBC, meanwhile, lifted its 2025 average price forecast to $38.56 from $31, pointing to tight supply and resilient industrial consumption in key sectors such as solar, electric vehicles, and semiconductors.

From a technical perspective, the broader uptrend remains firmly intact, supported by a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. On the 4-hour chart, prices remain comfortably above the short-term moving averages, keeping the bullish bias intact. Immediate support is seen around $51.50, which closely aligns with the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), followed by the $50.00 psychological level reinforced by the 50-SMA. Each minor pullback continues to attract fresh buying interest, suggesting strong dip-buying appetite as traders position for the next leg higher.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased from overbought territory to around 64, signaling a brief cooldown in momentum after the record run, with bulls likely taking a breather before attempting another push higher. On the upside, resistance is seen at the all-time high near $53.77, and a clear break above this zone could open the door toward the $55.00 handle, taking Silver deeper into uncharted territory.

XAU/USD Current price: $4,187.73

• United States political and trade turmoil fuels demand for the safe-haven metal.
• Federal Reserve officials delivered no new messages ahead of the October meeting.
• XAU/USD is showing signs of near-term upward exhaustion, buyers not done yet.

Spot Gold briefly surpassed the $4,200 mark on Wednesday, hitting yet another all-time high. The XAU/USD pair topped at $4,218.22 early in the European session, now changing hands at around $4,190.00. The demand for safety continues amid the United States (US) government shutdown, which is entering its third week. The US Senate was unable to pass a temporary funding bill on Tuesday, and despite ongoing talks, there are no signs of progress towards an agreement.

Other than that, concerns about escalating trade tensions between the US and China receded somewhat, putting modest pressure on the US Dollar (USD). In turn, Gold keeps piling gains.

Meanwhile, the absence of relevant US data leaves the focus on Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ words two weeks ahead of the October monetary policy meeting. So far, Fed Governor Stephen Miran noted that the economy is more vulnerable to shocks because policy is restrictive, and urged “to get to a more neutral policy.” Miran added that the only difference between his view and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members is on the speed of the trip to neutral.

Miran later added that the current Fed’s policy is more restrictive than what people think, because the neutral rate has fallen. Also, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that layoffs and lower hiring due to AI is expected to increase, foreseeing a weaker labor market ahead.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD is overbought, yet without signs of upward exhaustion. Technical indicators in the daily chart keep heading north despite being at extreme levels, in line with the dominant bullish trend. At the same time, the current price stands far above all bullish moving averages, which have lost their relevance as potential supports but still reflect buyers’ strength.

The near-term picture, however, is giving the first signs of upward exhaustion. On the 4-hour chart, the Momentum indicator shows some bearish divergences. In the 4-hour chart, the Momentum indicator posted a lower high despite higher highs in XAU/USD, and currently heads south within positive levels. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is marginally lower at around 67, still above the weekly bottom. Meanwhile, moving averages are still heading north below the current level, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently hovering around $4,120.

Support levels: 4,164.00 4,152.80 4,139.80

Resistance levels: 4,204.10 4,218.30 4,230.00