Iran-Israel Ceasefire and U.S.-China Rare Earth Deal Ease Geopolitical Risk

The Iran-Israel ceasefire brokered by President Trump earlier this week remains intact, reducing a significant geopolitical premium that previously supported gold.

Meanwhile, a White House official confirmed an agreement with China to expedite rare earth shipments, reducing concerns over supply disruptions ahead of the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline. The dollar’s recent weakness has provided no support, underscoring gold’s current vulnerability as safe-haven demand continues to fade.

PCE Data in Focus: Will Inflation Force the Fed’s Hand?

Today’s release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will be critical for traders assessing the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted tariffs are likely to push inflation higher over the coming months, but recent reports indicate muted inflation pressures so far.

April’s headline PCE rose 2.1% year over year, while core PCE increased 2.5%. For May, Wells Fargo expects headline PCE to print at 2.3% YoY and core PCE at 2.6%, signaling a modest uptick.

A hotter-than-expected PCE print could reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, potentially driving Treasury yields higher and adding downside pressure to gold, which remains unattractive in a high-rate environment due to its zero-yield nature. A softer print, however, may trigger dollar weakness and a relief bid in gold, but the loss of safe-haven flows will limit any sharp upside unless accompanied by new geopolitical tensions or a shift in Fed rhetoric.

Gold Loses Luster as Real Yields Remain Firm

Gold is down more than 2% this week, extending a decline of over $200 from its record highs in April. Analysts at City Index and FOREX.com note that while the current pullback helps unwind overbought technical conditions, the absence of strong catalysts and firm real yields continue to weigh on gold’s upside potential. Market participants are focusing on the interplay between inflation data and Fed commentary to gauge timing for potential rate adjustments.

Despite the neediness of the GBPJPY pair to the positive momentum, but the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels that pushed it to form a new positive move, to hit the target at 198.80, facing 66.8%Fibonacci correction level as appears in the above image.

The current trading scenario depends on the strength of 198.80 level, if it settles we expect forming bearish correctional trading that might push it to suffer some losses by reaching 197.40 and 169.85, while the price success in achieving the breach and providing a positive close above it, will reinforce the chances for recording extra gains by its rally to 199.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 197.40 and 198.80

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price took advantage of the positive factors by confirming the obstacle at $4.8900, to notice by the above image, forming a strong bullish rally achieving the main targets by reaching $5.0700 level and settles around it.

By the above image, we notice forming $5.1000 level to previous liquidity grab zones, to form an extra barrier against the bullish trading in the current period, to expect the price affection by the domination of the sideways bias domination temporarily, while the continuation of the fluctuation below this barrier might increase the chance for activating the bearish correctional track, which might target $4.9100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.9600 and $5.1000

Trend forecast: Fluctuated with the bullish track

• Gold price consolidates weekly losses below $3,330 early Friday, awaits US PCE inflation for fresh incentives.
• US Dollar holds rebound from multi-year lows amid US trade deals optimism and renewed hawkish Fed bets.
• Gold price battles 50-day SMA support, focus on the weekly closing amid bearish daily RSI.

Gold price is nursing weekly losses early Friday, with fresh downside risks emerging ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data release.  

Gold price eyes on US trade deal talks, PCE inflation

As the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its overnight rebound from over three-year highs, Gold price challenges a critical daily support line.

Traders refrain from placing any directional positions in the Greenback and Gold price before the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE Price Index, due later this Friday.

Markets are expecting the annual core PCE Price Index to advance by 2.3% in May, following a 2.1% growth in April, while on a monthly basis, the gauge is seen rising 0.1% in May, at the same pace as in April.

Hotter-than-expected core PCE readings could re-kindle expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering interest rates as early as July.

Markets are currently pricing in a 21% chance of a July Fed rate cut, while for a September reduction, the odds stand at 75%, the CME Group’s Fed WatchTool showed.

Therefore, the data will hold key to determining the timing of the next Fed rate cut, significantly impacting the USD-denominated and non-yielding Gold price.

The USD experienced good two-way businesses, falling to the lowest level since March 2022, following the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report that US President Trump is considering selecting and announcing a successor for Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier by September or October. 

Markets speculated that Trump’s attack threatening the Fed’s credibility could lead to the selection of a dovish successor, a so-called ‘lame duck’. This narrative weighed heavily on the buck.

However, the Greenback found its feet after a person familiar with the White House’s deliberations told Reuters on Thursday, “Trump has not decided on a replacement for Powell and a decision is not imminent.”

Further, hopes of US trade deals with the European Union (EU) and China before the July 9 deadline helped the US Dollar recover earlier losses.

A WSJ report cited late Thursday that EU officials are weighing lowering tariffs on US imports to woo Trump.

Meanwhile, a White House official said that the US has reached an understanding with China on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the US.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Having defended the strong support of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,325 so far this week, Gold price is yet again testing bids below that level at the press time.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing south below the midline, currently trading near 46, suggesting that downside potential remains in place.  

A weekly closing below the 50-day SMA support could validate a fresh downtrend, with the door opening for a test of the 50% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,232.

Ahead of that, the $3,295 demand area will be retested, which is the intersection of the weekly low and the 38.2% Fibo level of the same ascent.

On the flip side, the immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA, above which the 21-day SMA hurdle at $3,354 will be put to test.

Recapturing the 21-day SMA is critical for resuming the recovery from two-week troughs.

The next upside hurdle is aligned at the 23.6% Fibo level at $3,377.

Gold buyers will then target the $3,400 threshold once the 23.6% Fibo resistance is decisively taken out.

• Silver trades flat in early Asia after hitting $36.83 weekly high; poised for 1.80% weekly gain.
• Bullish trend intact with higher highs and lows; RSI shows buyers consolidating.
• Key resistance lies at $37.00 and $37.31 YTD high; support seen at $36.00 and $35.29.

Silver price turns flat as Friday’s Asian session begins, trades near $36.60, virtually unchanged, compared to Thursday’s June 26 daily close. The XAG/USD appears poised to close the week with gains of over 1.80%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver remains upward biased as Friday’s Asian session begins, posting back-to-back bullish days, which pushed the grey metal towards a weekly high of $36.83. XAG/USD has achieved a successive series of higher highs and higher lows, hinting that the grey metal is headed upwards.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned flatlines after edging higher for three consecutive days, in bullish territory. This indicates that buyers are taking a respite ahead of testing higher prices.

If XAG/USD climbs past $37.00, look for the next resistance at the yearly peak of $37.31. A breach of the latter will expose the $38.00 figure. Conversely, if Silver slides below $36.50, expect a test of $36.00. Further downside lies in the June 24 daily low of $35.68, followed by the latest cycle low of $35.29.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily