Created on October 14, 2025

• You can see that we have gapped higher to kick off the trading week on Monday as you would expect now that the bat between the Americans and the Chinese might be over. We just don’t know. We’ve actually seen a calming of tensions from both sides.
• So that’s a good sign. I think basically, what you have here is a continuation of what we’ve seen. And now we’re starting to focus on Japan again. That of course is because light monetary policy, loose monetary policy is probably coming. And that means yen printing in colloquial terms, we had broken above the 151 yen level an area that I had talked about for a while, and we’ve turned around to show signs of life, all things being equal.

I am Still Very Bullish Long-Term

This is a market that I think continues to go much higher. But what I’m worried about is the massive stop loss you may have to take into account in order to protect against this gap getting filled because gaps typically get filled eventually. That being said, we have gapped basically 130. Well, we gapped to open up right around 70 pips and then we’re up about 130 at this point.

So, all things being equal, this is a market that I think remains by on the dips, but I was hoping to get a little bit more of a dip than we got on Friday, to be honest with you. Longer term, we go higher. I just don’t see how that changes. I’ve been saying that for a while from somewhere around here in July, I think, and I’ve been buying dips and collecting swap. The gap, of course, is a completely different animal that you have to deal with, but it’s still the same strategy. You just look for cheaper dollars if you get that opportunity.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on October 14, 2025

Tuesday, October 14, 2025: Analysis of euro price against the dollar EUR/USD

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• General Trend: Bearish.
• Today’s Support Points for EUR/USD: 1.1540 – 1.1460 – 1.1380.
• Today’s Resistance Points for EUR/USD: 1.1620 – 1.1700 – 1.1820.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EURUSD from the support level of 1.1490, target 1.1730, and stop loss 1.1400.
• Sell EURUSD from the resistance level of 1.1670, target 1.1500, and stop loss 1.1730.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Amid heightened interest from forex traders in the future of US Federal Reserve policies and the ongoing dispute between Trump and bank officials over pressure to continue cutting interest rates, the main focus during today’s trading session will be on the reaction to remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 19:30 Egypt time. Prior to that, during the European session, the Euro’s price will be influenced by the release of the German ZEW Indicator, which measures confidence in the Eurozone’s largest economy, at 12:00 Egypt time.

Previously, according to reliable trading platforms, the euro-dollar price is stabilizing around the 1.1555 support level, the lowest level for the currency pair in more than two months.

EUR/USD Forecast Amid Renewed US/China Trade Conflict

According to the insights of forex trading experts, the Euro is not benefiting from the renewed trade tensions between China and the United States. At the end of last week, the EUR/USD exchange rate rose on news that US President Donald Trump would respond to new Chinese export controls by imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, set to take effect in November.

Consequently, the market responded by reviewing the 2025 trade rules and adhering to instructions to buy the euro as concerns about the US economy increased. Furthemore, the euro-dollar rose to resistance at 1.1630 following Trump’s unexpected move. Also, bulls hoped for continued price action at the start of the new week until the exchange rate’s technical outlook reversed from negative to positive in the near term.

Unfortunately for these bulls, the Euro was unable to capitalize on its sudden rise on Friday, putting it in a position that warns of further weakness in the coming days and weeks.

Over the weekend, both the United States and China indicated a willingness for dialogue, suggesting some back-channel communications are underway. We see these recent developments as strengthening both sides’ positions ahead of the expected meeting between Trump and Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in South Korea, held from October 27 to November 1. If the market agrees, stocks and the US dollar could recover from Friday’s weakness, which would keep the Euro under pressure in the near term.

Technically, the daily chart of the EUR/USD pair shows that the current level in the spot market is below the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is consistent with a near-term downtrend. Our base case is that the EUR/USD pair may see some stability in the coming days, benefiting from Friday’s decline and increased attention on trade-related headlines. However, when the pair returns to its current trajectory, we will look for further declines, as this is consistent with its pre-stabilization trajectory. Therefore, a return to 1.1550, and then lower, is likely over the next two weeks. Technically, the single currency is at risk of a further decline to the 1.14 support level.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp trader, the EUR/USD price will remain in its bearish range until technical indicators reach strong oversold levels or a sudden technical correction occurs amid a change in the current factors affecting the EUR/USD decline.

Away from trade headlines, we finally have an opportunity to look at some real US economic data, something that has been absent from the forex market since the partial US government shutdown began earlier this month. The US Department of Labor has reportedly recalled some of its staff to prepare for the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for October 15. In this context, US inflation is expected to rise by 0.4% month-on-month, with the annual rate increasing to 3.1% from 1.9%. Any reading below this rate will lead to a weaker US dollar, as it would push markets to increase their expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Ultimitaly, the market expects more US interest rate cuts in the coming months, but its conviction is wavering as the economy continues to perform with strong confidence, reducing the demand for rate cuts.

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