• Silver price trades with mild gains around $35.95 in Wednesday’s Asian session. 
• The weaker US Dollar provides some support to the USD-denominated Silver. 
• The risk-on mood due to easing Middle East tension might cap the XAG/USD’s upside. 

The Silver price (XAG/USD) posts modest gains near $35.95 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) provides some support to the USD-denominated commodity price. Traders brace for Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell testifies later on Wednesday.

US consumer confidence fell again in June amid uncertainty about US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed that the US Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 93 in June, below the market consensus. The downbeat US economic data drag the US Dollar lower and benefit the Silver price. 

On the other hand, the truce between Iran and Israel appeared to hold, with both sides saying they would honor the ceasefire if the other side did the same. Investors expect a truce between both countries will reduce the fears of wider war, which dampens the alternative safe-haven assets like Silver. 

Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country would strike again if Iran rebuilds its nuclear project. Any signs of escalation could boost the white metal in the near term. 

• Gold price extends Tuesday’s late rebound into early Wednesday, looks to $3,350.
• US Dollar rebound loses steam despite shaky Middle East ceasefire, hawkish Fed’s Powell.  
• Gold price defends the critical 50-day SMA support while the daily RSI struggles near the middle.  

Gold price is building on its previous rebound early Wednesday, snapping a three-day bearish streak as the US Dollar (USD) rebound fizzles ahead of day 2 of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony and mid-tier US data.

Gold price bounces as USD suffers from Middle East ceasefire

Gold price is benefiting from a slight negative shift in risk sentiment in Asian trading on Wednesday as traders remain wary about the shaky Iran-Isreal ceasefire.

A renewed US Dollar selling, fuelled by a downtick in the USD/JPY pair following the hawkish commentary from Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura and hot Japanese Services Producer Price Index (PPI), also supports the Gold price upswing.

Meanwhile, markets digest the hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell delivered during his testimony on the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Committee on Tuesday.

Powell said he expects policymakers to stay on hold until they have a better handle on the impact tariffs will have on prices, per CNBC News.

“We’re just trying to be careful and cautious,” he added.

The Greenback briefly drew support from Powell’s comments but the Middle East ceasefire optimism boosted risk appetite and drove US stocks higher, diminishing the USD’s appeal as a safe-haven.

Amid hawkish Fed Chair Powell’s comments and the shaky Middle East truce, Gold price tumbled to two-week lows at $3,295 before reversing sharply to settle Tuesday well above the $3,300 level.

The focus now shifts toward the mid-tier US housing data release and Powell’s testimony before the Senate later in the day. Markets will continue to pay close attention to any fresh developments on the Iran-Israel geopolitical front.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold price has managed to defend the strong support of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $3,325.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to regain the midline so far, currently trading near 49.

Therefore, it remains to be seen if the bright metal can retain its hold above the 50-day SMA yet again.

A failure to resist above the 50-day SMA on a daily closing basis will retest the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,297.

A sustained break of the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $3,250 psychological barrier, below which the 50% Fibo level at $3,232 will come into play.

On the other hand, recapturing the 21-day SMA at $3,352 is critical for a sustained recovery from two-week troughs.

The next upside hurdle is aligned at the 23.6% Fibo level at $3,377.

Gold buyers will then target the $3,400 threshold once the 23.6% Fibo resistance is decisively taken out.

Key Support at 50-Day Moving Average

The decisive decline in the price of natural gas looks to be heading for a test of support around 50-Day MA, now at $3.48, and a recent higher swing low at $3.45. If support fails around the 50-Day line, then the 200-Day, currently at $3.36, will probably be on the agenda. Since the 50-Day MA was reclaimed on June 2, there has been one pullback to test the 50-Day MA as support. It was successful and followed by a rally to new trend highs for the short-term uptrend. Therefore, this second test of the line should provide clues about supply and demand. If it fails to lead to a bullish reversal, a deeper retracement or consolidation may follow.

Near-term Channel at Risk

Despite the trend lines and moving averages on the chart marking various dynamic price levels, the bigger picture is one of consolidation, with a low at $2.86 and a high at $4.90. Inside that larger consolidation pattern is a rising trend channel, begun from the April swing low. That channel pattern may continue to evolve or fail. A continuation of the pattern triggered last Tuesday. Nonetheless, a potential failure of the pattern would first be indicated by a drop below the interim swing low at $3.45. That would show a failure of both a lower trendline and 50-Day MA to show support.

Touch of Lower Channel Line Likely

Otherwise, the expectation is for support to be found near the lower support zone of the price channel and then turn back up. That would lead to the possible continuation of the rising trend channel. As the past couple of days have shown, an advance that rises into a consolidation zone may find resistance before going to too far.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,312.61

• Easing concerns about the Middle East crisis undermined demand for Gold.
• A hawkish US Federal Reserve Chairman adds to the risk-on mood.
• XAU/USD bounced from sub-$3,300, a near-term bottom not yet confirmed.

Spot Gold is depressed, barely holding above the $3,300 threshold. The XAU/USD pair is sharply down for a second consecutive day amid optimistic headlines flooding the news feeds.

On the one hand, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel late on Monday, with the fragile truce still spurring risk appetite. Recent headlines indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire because his country had achieved all of its war goals. Also, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran would not violate the ceasefire deal unless Israel does.

Other than that, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell testified on monetary policy before Congress. In his prepared remarks, Powell reiterated that Fed officials are concerned about the impact of tariffs on the economy and, hence, expect inflation to tick north. He also repeated that uncertainty is high, while adding that the US is not in recession. His message was tilted to hawkish, helping the market’s mood to remain upbeat and safe-haven assets under selling pressure.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the XAU/USD pair’s daily chart hints at additional slides, particularly if the pair breaks below the intraday low set at $3,295.46. The mentioned chart shows the pair develops below a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing resistance at around $3,352. At the same time, technical indicators crossed their midlines into negative territory, maintaining their downward slopes and hinting at lower lows ahead. It is worth noting that the long-term moving averages maintain their sharp bullish slopes below the current level, limiting the case for a steeper slide below the $3,000 mark.

The 4-hour chart for XAU/USD suggests sellers have temporarily paused. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator lost its bearish strength after reaching oversold readings, while the Momentum indicator turned flat below its 100 line. Still, the pair develops below all its moving averages, with a bearish 20 SMA extending its slide below a flat 100 SMA, usually indicating solid selling interest.

Support levels: 3,295.45 3,279.20 3,26490

Resistance levels: 3,328.80 3,352.00 3,374.45

Weekly Support at $3,293

The interim higher swing low at $3,293 is also a weekly low and close to the previous week’s low at $3,296. Together, they identify a potential significant weekly support level. Therefore, a sustained drop below $3,293 could see a burst in momentum as the possibility of a failure of support at the 50-Day MA would increase. If a weekly breakdown occurs then there is potential support at the crossover of two trendlines, at $3,271, and an earlier higher swing low at $3,245. Alternatively, if a breakdown is followed by a quick recovery above prior lows, then that could also be a sign of an end to the pullback.

Above $3,370 Needed for Bulls

Given the current trend pattern, a decisive advance above today’s high of $3,370 would be needed for signs of strength that might be sustainable. That would also put the price of gold back above the 20-Day MA, which is now at $3,352. As noted above, the behavior of gold around the 50-Day MA, may provide clues as to what could be next. Each of the recent two tests of support at the 50-Day ended by daily closing prices above the line. There was only one day that the line was breached earlier in the trading session, and it was recovered before the close.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver is hesitating below $36.40 with risk appetite undermining demand for safe havens.
• US Dollar’s weakness is keeping Silver prices from depreciating further.
• XAG/USD: A breach of $35.50 would confirm a bearish H&S formation.

Silver (XAG/USD) is bouncing up from a key support area at $35.50 on Tuesday, following a three-day reversal from multi-year highs at $37.35. The pair is drawing support from US Dollar weakness amid the risk-on mood, but the weak demand for safe havens is also keeping Silver upside attempts limited.

Investors are celebrating what the US President, Donald Trump, announced as a “complete and total ceasefire”, which only hours later is under threat amid accusations of violation from Iran. Israel has vowed a strong response in case of attack, but so far, risk appetite prevails.

On the macroeconomic domain, further calls for Fed easing, this time from the Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, have underscored the divergence within the Federal Reserve’s committee and increased bearish pressure on the US Dollar ahead of Powell’s testimony to Congress, due later today.

XAG/USD: The $35.50 is the neckline of a bearish H&S formation

A look at the 4-hour charts, and we see the pair moving without a clear bias, with upside attempts limited at below Monday’s high, at $36.40. The Doji candles on the daily chart indicate a hesitant market following a three-day reversal from long-term highs.

The broader trend remains positive, but the lower highs this week anticipate a potential Head & Shoulders pattern, which is often a signal of a trend shift. A break of the neckline, at $35.50, suggests that there is room for a deeper correction, aiming at $34.10 (June 4 low) and the $32.70 area, which held prices on May 22, 27, 28 and 30.

XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart

Hedera Hashgraph’s currency price settled higher in latest intraday trading, boosted by trading above the 50-day SMA, but still dominated by the main downward trend, with negative signals from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels compared to the price’s movements.

Therefore we expect the price to decline and target the support of $0.1385, provided the resistance of $0.1616 holds on.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish