Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:

• The overall Gold Trend: Bullish.
• Today’s Gold Support Levels: $3350 – $3300 – $3240 per ounce.
• Today’s Gold Resistance Levels: $3385 – $3420 – $3500 per ounce.

Today’s gold trading signals update:

• Sell Gold from the resistance level of $3510 with a target of $3390 and a stop-loss at $3550.
• Buy Gold from the support level of $3330 with a target of $3500 and a stop-loss at $3280.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:

The selling pressure that gold prices experienced last week, which pushed them down to the $3340 per ounce support level before closing the week stable around the $3367 per ounce resistance, has not derailed gold’s upward trajectory. As mentioned before, the $3300 per ounce resistance will remain a strong catalyst for bulls to advance technically.

Will gold prices rise soon?

According to gold analysts’ forecasts, spot gold prices are expected to see a sharp increase due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, ignited by news of a US airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities. This development is driving strong demand for safe-haven gold bullion. Consequently, analysts now expect gold prices to range between $3500 and $3700 per ounce, as investors hedge against geopolitical instability and inflation risks.

On the other hand, there is a catalyst for the gold market. Global central bank reserves continue to accumulate. According to the World Gold Council, central banks added a total of 290 metric tons in the first quarter of 2025, the strongest first quarter on record. This follows record annual purchases in 2022, 2023, and 2024, driven by purchases from China, India, and other emerging economies seeking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.

Trading Tips:

We still advise following the strategy of buying gold on every dip, but without taking risks and distributing entry percentages across multiple trades from different areas.

According to performance across gold trading platforms, gold prices have gained over 25% so far in 2025, underscoring growing investor demand for precious metals amidst increasing uncertainty. Overall, gold remains the world’s second-largest reserve asset, serving as a safe haven for over $21 trillion. Under current conditions, gold is expected to see a sharp rise. While gold benefits from its safe-haven appeal, silver – 60% of whose demand is linked to the industrial and renewable sectors – may lag. Analysts warn that a worsening conflict could raise recession fears, putting pressure on silver in the medium term.

Bullish Forecasts for Gold Prices in the Coming Months:

In this regard, Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its structurally optimistic forecasts for the future path of gold prices, citing strong demand from global central banks as a key factor in raising the gold-to-silver ratio. The bank does not expect silver to match gold’s pace and anticipates gold to outperform. Goldman Sachs’ base forecast predicts gold reaching $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and the $4000 per ounce resistance level by mid-2026.

In a recessionary scenario, accelerated ETF inflows could push gold to $3880 by the end of 2025. Under extreme risk conditions – such as concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence or shifts in US Federal Reserve policy – gold prices could surge to $4500.

Ready to trade our Gold daily analysis and predictions? We’ve made a list of the best Gold trading platforms worth trading with.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,378.94

• United States involvement in the Middle East crisis fuels demand for Gold.
• S&P Global released upbeat preliminary estimates of the US June PMIs.
• XAU/USD nears $3,400 but loses its near-term bullish momentum.

Spot Gold trades around $3,900, nearing its early peak at $3,397.33 in the mid-American session. The bright metal gapped north at the weekly opening amid the escalation of the Iran-Israel crisis after the involvement of the United States (US). President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that his country successfully destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities in three locations, Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, pushing investors into safety.

The US Dollar (USD) found some near-term demand during European trading hours, resulting in XAU/USD pulling back sharply towards the $3340 region. Still, the American opening brought another round of risk aversion, amid market talks indicating Iran launched a missile attack on US military bases in Doha, Qatar.

Meanwhile, speculative interest read beyond encouraging US data. S&P Global reported higher-than-anticipated preliminary June Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). The manufacturing index posted 52, matching the May reading but above the expected 51. The Services PMI eased from the previous 53.7 to 53.1, which is above the anticipated 52.9. As a result, the Composite PMI printed at 52, slightly above the 51 expected.

Middle East headlines will likely overshadow everything else in the upcoming days, although it is worth mentioning that US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell is due to testify about the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before Congress on Tuesday. Given the recent developments, there are rising odds that Powell will be asked to explain what the Fed plans to do if tariffs come into effect and the Middle East conflict escalates.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows it bounced sharply from a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which, anyway, develops far above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. The shorter moving average currently provides dynamic support at around $3,352.70. Other than that, technical indicators bounced from around their midlines, but lack enough strength to support another leg north.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is losing its bullish impetus. The pair is developing above all its moving averages, which lack clear directional strength. Technical indicators in the meantime, turned flat after crossing their midlines into positive territory.

Support levels: 3,366.10 3,352.70 3,340.20

Resistance levels: 3,406.90 3,414.60 3,431.10

Natural gas price activated the bearish correctional track after recording $4.160 level, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought level, activating the attempts of gathering gains by reaching $3.900.

Depending on forming extra support at $3.830 level, to reduce the risk of suffering extra losses, to keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum, which allows it to renew the bullish attempts and reaching $4.050 and $4.220.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.850 and $4.050

Trend forecast: Bullish

Less than two weeks ago, the U.S. was discussing a new nuclear deal with Iran, the International Energy Agency was forecasting an oil market oversupply, and commodity analysts were reiterating their expectations of an average Brent price around $60. Now, Brent is heading towards $80.

And it may be just the beginning.

Oil prices rose after Israel started bombing Iran, which was little surprise, and then they stopped rising as traders saw there was no direct threat of supply disruption. The wild card this time turned out to be President Trump. In a matter of days, Trump first imposed new sanctions on Iran, which made most market players think he’d stick with non-violent methods of dealmaking. Then, on Saturday, the United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities—and Iran said it’s shutting the Strait of Hormuz.

Interestingly, the early reactions from Middle Eastern stock markets were rather optimistic, at least according to a Reuters report that came out Sunday. The report said trader behavior suggested most expected a “benign outcome” of the bombing campaign. The report also quoted traders as saying they expected a selloff today and a run on safe haven assets such as the U.S. dollar. 

Also on Sunday, Iran’s Press TV reported that the country’s parliament had approved the move to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the U.S. attack on the nuclear sites—for which the Interntional Atomic Energy Agency had said did not feature weapons-grade uranium but U.S. intelligence has disputed this.

The threat of Iran closing off the chokepoint that handles a third of global maritime oil trade, amounting to over 20 million barrels daily, has been there forever. Until now, however, Iran had never moved to actually close it, which highlights the special nature of this latest Middle Eastern war. The final decision is not hard to predict. And this means that Brent at $80 is only the beginning.

Goldman Sachs already threw its latest oil price forecast out the window, now expecting Brent at $110 per barrel in case of a Hormuz shutdown, noting this scenario could materialize if oil flows via the strait were halved for a month. ING, for its part, wrote that “an effective blocking of the Hormuz would lead to a dramatic shift in the outlook for oil, pushing the market into deep deficit”—again, days after all forecasts appeared in agreement that the market for crude oil is oversupplied, including ING’s own outlook.

It appears, then, that the oil market’s balance is a fragile thing. It can so easily be tipped into a deficit—even with the U.S. Fifth Fleet stationed in Bahrain, and ready to respond to any move by Iran to close off the Strait of Hormuz, as already pointed out by commentators such as Reuters’ Ron Bousso. There have been disruptions to the flow of oil via the Strait of Hormuz before, but they have never lasted long, Bousso pointed out, adding that war-driven oil price rallies never last long.

Of course, this would depend on one’s interpretation of “long”. In 2022, oil soared for months, which, at least in Europe, did not really feel like a very short time. And this time, there is also LNG to consider. Most of Qatar’s LNG flows pass via the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran mines the chokepoint, LNG prices will surge as well—whether for weeks or months, but they will surge. This is very bad news for countries that need to refill their wintertime reserve—which is most of them.

Some point out OPEC’s spare capacity as a guarantee for market stability. The problem with that spare capacity is that, as ING pointed out in its Sunday note, most of it is in the Persian Gulf, which makes it unusable in case of fighting in the area, which is what is going to happen if Iran shuts off the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. Fifth Fleet responds. This, in turn, means that prices may rise and stay high for a while yet. This is inconvenient for the U.S., as suggested by reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio had approached China to try and “dissuade” Iran from shutting off Hormuz, noting Iran itself was heavily dependent on oil exports via that chokepoint.

However, Iran has been loading tankers like there’s no tomorrow in the past week or so. Iran, in other words, has been preparing for a certain eventuality involving a disruption to oil exports. Granted, it won’t be able to keep going for very long without oil exports, but, as all those commentators say, a Hormuz blockade would not last very long—unless it somehow does, because right now, all bets seem to be off when it comes to the Middle East. There is only one thing that is certain: the oil market is not oversupplied, and Brent is not going to average $60 this year.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

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Natural gas price activated the bearish correctional track after recording $4.160 level, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought level, activating the attempts of gathering gains by reaching $3.900.

Depending on forming extra support at $3.830 level, to reduce the risk of suffering extra losses, to keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum, which allows it to renew the bullish attempts and reaching $4.050 and $4.220.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.850 and $4.050

Trend forecast: Bullish