• EUR/USD trades below 1.1500 in the European session on Monday.
• Mixed PMI data releases make it difficult for the Euro to find demand.
• The US Dollar is likely to stay resilient against its rivals unless the risk mood improves.

EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and trades below 1.1500 to start the week. The near-term technical outlook highlights a buildup of bearish momentum. In the second half of the day, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the US and developments surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict could drive the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation and impact the pair’s action.

Markets remain risk-averse and help the USD hold its ground on Monday after the United States (US) got involved in the Israel-Iran conflict by bombing three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.

Meanwhile, mixed PMI data releases from the Euro area seems to be making it difficult for the Euro to stage a rebound. HCOB Composite PMI in Germany improved to 50.4 in June’s flash estimate from 48.5 in May. In the same period, HCOB Composite PMI in the Eurozone remained unchanged at 50.2, missing the market expectation of 50.5.

In the second half of the day, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data for June will be featured in the US economic calendar. The market reaction to these data releases is likely to be straightforward and remain short-lived. Stronger-than-forecast PMI reading are likely to support the USD.

In the European morning, US stock index futures trade marginally higher after opening deep in negative territory. A bullish opening in Wall Street could weigh on the USD and help EUR/USD edge higher. Unless there is a de-escalation of the tensions in the Middle East, however, investors could refrain from taking large positions in risk-sensitive assets.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declined below 40 and EUR/USD fell below the lower limit of the ascending regression channel, reflecting a buildup of bearish momentum.

EUR/USD faces a pivot level at 1.1460-1.1470, where the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the lower limit of the ascending channel align. In case this area is confirmed as resistance, technical sellers could remain interested. In this scenario, 1.1420 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the latest uptrend) could be seen as the next support before 1.1360 (200-period SMA).

Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1500 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement), 1.1530 (50-period SMA) and 1.1570 (mid-point of the ascending channel).

Platinum price activated the attempts of gathering the previously achieved gain, by forming a clear correctional decline in Friday, to settle below the extra support at $1275.00 level targeting $1244.00 as appears in the above image.

Reminding you that the stability above $1225.00 level until now might assist renewing the bullish attempts, to target $1300.00 and $1335.00 level, while its decline below this support and providing a negative close will confirm its readiness to resume the correctional decline, to wait for targeting $1210.00 and $1187.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1225.00 and $1300.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated 

Platinum price activated the attempts of gathering the previously achieved gain, by forming a clear correctional decline in Friday, to settle below the extra support at $1275.00 level targeting $1244.00 as appears in the above image.

Reminding you that the stability above $1225.00 level until now might assist renewing the bullish attempts, to target $1300.00 and $1335.00 level, while its decline below this support and providing a negative close will confirm its readiness to resume the correctional decline, to wait for targeting $1210.00 and $1187.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1225.00 and $1300.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated 

June 22, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Volatility Expected as Iran to Shut Strait of Hormuz

LIVE UPDATE: The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) found support close to 1.1450 on Thursday and rallied to 1.1530 on Friday amid a fresh glimmer of hope that further escalation in the Israel/Iran war could be avoided with the dollar losing defensive support.

However, Iran’s Parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities. The move does still require approval from the country’s National Security Council before it can take effect.

This development, if confirmed, would have immediate global repercussions. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through it daily. A closure would likely send crude oil prices soaring and trigger safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen.

Commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone could also rally on higher energy prices, while emerging market currencies and oil-importing nations (like India or Turkey) would come under pressure due to rising energy costs and geopolitical risk aversion.

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According to UoB; “The mild downward pressure has faded, and the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.1470 and 1.1540.”

On a medium-term view, ING commented; “The current USD risk premium already embeds plenty of negatives, and 1.15 can prove the anchor, rather than the starting point for another major rally, at least this year.”

There had been a tentative net improvement in risk appetite as President Trump appeared to signal that there would not be an immediate US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

He indicated that there would be a delay of up to two weeks in order for last-ditched diplomatic efforts to take place.

MUFG commented; “President Trump’s decision to publicly state that he will make his mind up on involving the US in the conflict within the next two weeks has raised optimism that a deal can be done to avoid an escalation. Senior officials from the UK, Germany and France will meet Iranian officials in Geneva today and we are likely to go into the weekend with hope of diplomatic progress.”

There is, however, still a high degree of uncertainty, especially with Trump emphasising the benefit of unpredictability.

Rabobank notes the difficult policy choices; “If he declines to initiate strikes Iran could plausibly sprint for a nuclear weapon that would pose an existential threat to Israel and perhaps encourage Saudi Arabia to pursue nuclear arms of its own.”

It added; “If he conducts limited strikes on Fordo and elsewhere they may not succeed in destroying Iran’s nuclear program and the Hydra’s heads will undoubtedly grow back, leaving America to face the same conundrum again in the future.”

Extensive US action against Iran could have major geo-political and economic ramifications.

There will, therefore, be reservations over aggressive dollar selling, especially ahead of the weekend.

ING is less positive on the dollar; “The FX market has taken the somewhat lower probability of the US intervening in Iran already this weekend as an opportunity to re-enter USD short positions, especially against European currencies.”

It added; “This confirms that a constant flow of oil-positive, risk-negative geopolitical news is needed to keep the dollar supported in an environment where markets retain a strong bias towards strategic USD shorts.”

MUFG noted that the Chinese central bank fixed the yuan stronger than expected.

According to the bank; “The fixings are a strong message that the Chinese authorities will not seek CNY depreciation as an offset to the ongoing trade uncertainties as we approach the key period when reciprocal tariffs are set to be reactivated.”

Chinese resistance to yuan losses would tend to support the Euro in global markets and underpin EUR/USD.

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June 22, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Forecast: GBP Trapped near 1.17 vs EUR

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) consolidated around 1.17 with improved risk conditions offset by evidence of a fragile economy and fears over further medium-term tax increases.

There will be ongoing reservations surrounding fiscal policy and the possibility of faster Bank of England interest rates, which will tend to hurt the Pound.

ING still sees scope for GBP/EUR losses to 1.1630.

UK equites posted gains after the US Administration suggested that any military strike on Iran could be delayed for up to 2 weeks to allow a last-minute diplomatic effort.

Economic data, however, offered no Pound support.

Retail sales volumes slumped 2.7% for May compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.5% decline. This was the sharpest fall since December 2023 and followed an upwardly-revised 1.3% gain for April.

Sales still increased 0.8% in the three months to May compared with the previous 3-month period.

Food stores sales volumes fell by 5.0% in May 2025 following growth of 4.7% in April while non-food sales declined 1.4%.

ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach commented; “Retail sales fell sharply in May with their largest monthly fall since the end of 2023. This was mainly due to a dismal month for food retailers, especially supermarkets, following strong sales in April.”

The latest data recorded a UK government borrowing requirement of £17.7bn for May compared with £17.0bn the previous year. Although close to consensus forecasts, this was the second-highest May deficit on record.

For the first 2 months of the fiscal year, the deficit increased to £37.7bn from £36.1bn the previous year.

According to Capital Economics; “We doubt it will get much better for the Chancellor anytime soon, as her £9.9bn buffer against her fiscal mandate may be wiped out at the Autumn Budget.”

It added; “The u-turns on benefit and welfare spending, downward revisions to the OBR’s productivity forecasts and higher borrowing costs may mean to maintain her current £9.9bn buffer, Reeves has to raise £13-23bn later this year. All this means tax rises are looking increasingly likely.”

The UK GfK consumer confidence index improved to -18 for June from -20 previously and compared with market expectations of no change. Consumers were more confident surrounding the overall economic outlook.

Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director at GfK, commented; “Yet confidence is still fragile because the dark shadow of inflation is a day-to-day challenge for so many of us. With petrol prices set to rise in the coming weeks and with ongoing uncertainty as to the full impact of tariffs, there is still much that could negatively impact consumers. With so much volatility, now is certainly not the time to hope for the proverbial ‘light at the end of the tunnel’.”

Markets continue to debate the Bank of England outlook following Thursday decision to hold rates at 4.25%.

ING commented; “We only expect two cuts this year two cuts this year, but markets may be tempted on the dovish side by soft UK data, and we remain generally bullish in EUR/GBP in our multi-month view.

Danske Bank added; “We expect the BoE to stick to quarterly cuts, leaving the Bank Rate at 3.75% by YE 2025, which is aligned with market pricing.

It added; “Markets are pricing 50bp for the remainder of the year. However, we highlight that the risk is skewed towards a swifter cutting cycle in 2025 and 2026 given the downside risks to growth and the labour market.”

It expects gradual GBP/EUR losses with a 12-month forecast of 1.15.

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