Bullish Above $3,388

A one-day bullish breakout above today’s high of $3,388 will indicate that support was retained at the 20-Day line. The short-term uptrend of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, beginning from the May swing low, would be expected to continue at that point. Key resistance would then be at the recent high of $3,451, with a decisive breakout above that level signaling a continuation of the short-term uptrend and a bullish reversal, above $3,449, of the recent bearish correction.

Weak Momentum is a Concern

There is a concern that bullish momentum following a recent trendline breakout has been weak. This is evidenced by the failure to hold above the $3,439 lower swing high. Today’s low of $3,347 is near-term support and if it is broken a break of the 20-Day line will have also occurred. Lower price levels for possible support are the 50-Day MA, now at $3,314, and prior support at the prior interim swing low of $3,293. The 50-Day line is a key dynamic trend indicator.

50-Day Moving Average is Key

Gold bounced off support around the 50-Day line on each of the two previous bearish retracements. It should do so again if the intermediate bull trend, starting from the November swing lows, is to be retained. Nonetheless, if drop below the line occurs, support might be seen around the intersection of several trendlines at $3,271, or an interim swing low at $3,2,45.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

ABCD Target Reached

Despite bullish indications, an initial target and therefore potential resistance, marked by a rising ABCD pattern (purple), was hit at $4.08. Just something to be aware of, as a potential resistance zone begins from there and up to $4.17. The higher price point is the completion of a smaller ascending ABCD pattern (orange). In between the two price levels there is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4.12. Once there is symmetry in gains between two consecutive upswings, there is the possibility of resistance.

Strong Bullish Momentum

Of course, a rally above today’s high will provide a bullish continuation signal, with the two initial targets being $4.12 and $4.17. A decisive continuation signal above $4.17, however, would show very strong bullish momentum and therefore increase the possibility of reaching an initial higher target zone relatively rapidly.

Measured Moves Show Higher Prices

It is interesting to note that the first measured move from the April swing low (AB, purple) was $0.98 (blue vertical). Given signs of aggressive buying seen this week, the current advance has the potential to match the first rally in the current short-term uptrend. Symmetry in price would be established at that point, and that makes it as a potential target. However, the similarity in the initial speed of this upswing relative to AB, is the clue that the market is providing.

Time Symmetry Potential

There is also the potential for symmetry in time to occur between the two swings. The initial AB advance completed in 12 days with only two instances of a one-day pullback. Notice that the current advance reaches 12 days on June 30. Whether the upside target is reached or not, a continuation of an aggressive rally is indicated and the results following the first one-day lower daily low will provide the next clue. An immediate recovery would validate the potential for a matching measured move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver falls for the second day as the US Dollar climbs to 99.15 on geopolitical fears.
• RSI shows weakening momentum; the path of least resistance may shift lower.
• Key support at $36.00, while resistance looms at $36.50 and $37.32 YTD high.

Silver price retreats on Thursday after back-to-back bearish days, as investors seeking safety buy the US Dollar (USD), pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a six-day high of 99.15. Rising tensions in the Middle East grow as the US could be dragged into the conflict. Currently, XAG/USD is trading at $36.37, down nearly 1%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver prices remain upward biased, despite retreating to current levels after reaching a multi-year high of $37.32 on Wednesday. The gray metal hit a low around $36.21; since then, it has recovered, but traders are facing strong resistance at $36.50.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyer momentum is fading, suggesting that the path of least resistance is downward in the near term.

With that said, the first support level for XAG/USD would be the $36.00 figure. On further strength, sellers could challenge Silver’s bullishness if they drag prices below the June 12 swing low of $35.46, which clears the path to test the October 30, 2024, high turned support at $34.86.

On the other hand, if XAG/USD prints a daily close above $36.50, the following key resistance levels would be $37.00 and the year-to-date high of $37.32.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

(This story was corrected on June 19 at 21:02 GMT to say in the first bullet point that Silver falls for the second day, not the third)

Micron Technology’s stock price (MU) kept rising in latest intraday trading, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, with ongoing positive pressure due to trading above the 50-day SMA, but countered with the Stochastic reaching overbought levels compared to the stock’s movement.

Therefore we expect more gains for the price, targeting the resistance of $137.00, provided the support of $111.00 holds on.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

A peak in global oil demand is still on the horizon, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, doubling down on its forecast that demand will plateau by the end of the decade. 

China’s oil demand, which increased by a cumulative 6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the decade to 2024, is set to peak earlier than previously expected, the agency said in its annual Oil 2025 report for the medium term. 

While China – the world’s top crude oil importer – accounted for 60% of the global increase in oil consumption in 2015-2024, “the picture to 2030 looks very different,” the IEA said.   

China’s demand is on track to peak in 2027 – two years earlier than previously thought – amid “an extraordinary surge in EV sales, the continued deployment of trucks running on liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as strong growth in the country’s high-speed rail network, along with structural shifts in its economy.” 

Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.5 million bpd from 2024 to 2030, reaching a plateau around 105.5 million bpd by the end of the decade, per the agency’s latest estimates.   

Annual global growth will slow from about 700,000 bpd in 2025 and 2026 “to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today’s policy settings and market trends,” the IEA said. 

The agency expects below-trend economic growth, weighed down by global trade tensions and fiscal imbalances, and accelerating substitution away from oil in the transport and power generation sectors.  

At the same time, the increase in global oil supply is “set to far outpace demand growth in coming years,” according to the agency. 

“Based on the fundamentals, oil markets look set to be well-supplied in the years ahead – but recent events sharply highlight the significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.  

If no major supply disruptions occur, the oil market will be comfortably supplied through 2030, the agency reckons, but warned that “significant uncertainties remain, especially given rising geopolitical risks and heightened trade tensions.” 

The IEA’s “peak demand on the horizon” narrative once again clashes with OPEC’s view of growing oil demand at least into the 2040s. 

Just last week, OPEC Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, said that oil demand would continue growing over the coming decades as the world’s population increases. 

“Simply put, there is no ‘peak in oil demand’ on the horizon,” Al Ghais said at The Global Energy Show Canada in Calgary, Canada.  

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

XAU/USD Current price: $3,369.70

• The Bank of England kept the benchmark rate at 4.25% as widely anticipated.
• The Middle East crisis keeps escalating and undermining the market’s mood.
• XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish in the near term, steeper decline out of the table.

Spot Gold is depressed, trading in the $3,370 region after posting a fresh weekly low of $3,347.64 during European trading hours. The US Dollar gained ground after the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold after its June meeting. The Fed statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, however, had a hawkish tilt that surprised investors.

Mainly, market players welcome Powell’s confidence on the economy resilience, and the fact that policymakers seemed less concerns about the potential impact of US President Donald Trump tariffs.

However, Middle East tensions retook centre stage as missile exchanges between Iran and Israel intensified. Additionally, President Trump is said to have approved attack plans on Iran on Tuesday, but held back in the hopes that Tehran agrees to abandon its nuclear program.

Other than that, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep interest rates on hold at 4.25% early on Thursday as expected. The announcement failed to trigger relevant market moves, but put mild pressure on the Sterling Pound (GBP).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it stands at around its opening, having met buyers around a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at around $3,347. The same chart shows the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their strong upward momentum far below the shorter one, in line with the long-term bullish trend. Finally, technical indicators stand directionless within positive levels, reflecting the lack of interest.

The near-term picture is neutral-to-bearish. The pair holds above mildly bullish 100 and 200 SMAs, while the 20 SMA gains downward momentum above the current level. At the same time, technical indicators see-saw right below their midlines, favoring another leg lower without confirming it yet.

Support levels: 3,366.10 3,347.45 3,332.10

Resistance levels: 3,385.20 3,406.90 3,414.60

The EURJPY pair continued forming bearish correctional trading, to keep gathering the gains of the last bullish attack, hitting the 166.00 level, which represents the extra support level for the current trading.

Stochastic exit from the overbought level might force the price to renew the pressure on the current support, where breaking it will confirm its readiness to resume the attempts of gathering the gains by reaching 165.45 and 165.00, while activating the bullish track requires forming a strong bullish rally to settle above 167.35 level, then targeting new positive stations that begin at 168.00 and 168.90.

The expected trading range for today is between 165.45 and 166.85

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

$3,310.48 Support and 50-Day SMA Now Key Battleground

Price action is pressing against $3,310.48, a key horizontal support that aligns closely with the 50-day simple moving average at $3,314.40. This zone is a confluence of trend and structure—break it, and gold could fall toward $3,280.00 or even $3,228.38. But if bulls hold the line, it would mark a successful higher low and could reset the push toward $3,435.06 and $3,451.53.

This technical tension mirrors the market’s uncertainty about the Fed’s next move. Traders are waiting for confirmation—either a breakdown confirming near-term weakness or a bounce that keeps the broader uptrend intact.

Fed’s “Prepared to Adjust” Line Adds Fuel to Medium-Term Bull Case

While short-term upside is capped by high real interest rates, the Fed’s increasingly data-dependent tone has opened the door to a more accommodative stance if needed. The line that the Committee is “prepared to adjust” policy if risks emerge is a subtle pivot—particularly if upcoming inflation or employment data weakens.

The Fed is also continuing quantitative tightening at a cautious pace, reducing Treasuries and MBS holdings without disrupting liquidity. This careful approach helps sustain financial conditions favorable to gold and other alternative assets.

Long-Term Outlook: Asymmetric Risk Profile Supports Gold Accumulation

Looking 6–18 months out, the case for gold remains strong. The Fed’s balancing act between inflation control and growth support creates a scenario where any economic weakening—whether from labor market stress, softer consumer demand, or credit risks—could fast-track rate cuts. In that case, gold could break back above $3,500.00 and enter a new leg higher.

Persistent geopolitical tensions, fiscal risks, and steady central bank demand for gold further reinforce the metal’s long-term appeal.