The (ETHUSD) price settled with gains in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive trend line for this track, with the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, representing dynamic support that helps the price rise, with the positive divergence on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, with the emergence of the positive signals from them.
VIP Trading Signals Performance by BestTradingSignal.com (September 22–26, 2025)
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There is the potential for choppy range trading on the last day of the month. The latest US job openings data will also be important while markets will be monitoring US political developments closely with the threat of a government shutdown on Wednesday.
UoB commented; “Based on the current momentum, any further advance is unlikely to threaten the major resistance at 1.3525. On the downside, support levels are at 1.3415 and 1.3395.”
According to Scotiabank; “we remain neutral in the absence of a break back above 1.35.”
As far as US politics is concerned, the immediate focus will be on the risk of a government shutdown with the current funding due to expire today.
A meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders failed to make headway amid deep divisions.
The implications of any shutdown could be more serious than usual given the labour-market impact.
Government workers are usually furloughed during a shutdown, but this time the Administration has pledged to fire workers and not re-hire those that are not considered essential.
There are also a huge number of Federal workers who will officially leave their jobs at the end of September after receiving a six-month redundancy package earlier in the year.
With jobs data watched very closely, any shutdown could also lead to Friday’s scheduled employment report being postponed.
MUFG commented; “As result, market participants are wary that a government shutdown could prove more disruptive this time around depending as well on how long it remains in place.”
According to Brown Brothers Harriman senior markets strategist Elias Haddad; “A prolonged shutdown (more than two weeks), increases the downside risk to growth and raises the likelihood of a more accommodative Fed.”
The latest UK data did not have a major impact with annual GDP growth revised to 1.4% from 1.2% due to historic revisions. There are, however, still expectations of tax increases in November.
Standard Chartered commented on the outlook; “The BOE is likely to enter a protracted pause and the focus will shift to the UK’s Autumn Budget (26 November). The UK’s deficit remains sizable but is likely to improve, easing fears of a fiscal crisis. However, a reliance on tax hikes could weigh on growth and cap GBP gains.”
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The (ETHUSD) price settled with gains in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive trend line for this track, with the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, representing dynamic support that helps the price rise, with the positive divergence on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, with the emergence of the positive signals from them.
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Read the full USD/JPY forecast, including chart setups and trade ideas.
As traders consider the BoJ’s views on the Tankan survey, attention is also turning to the AUD/USD as Aussie inflation and labor market data cloud the RBA’s policy outlook.
Ai Group Industry Index Dips, Spotlighting the Aussie Dollar
Turning focus to the AUD/USD pair, the Ai Group Industry Index fell from -13.9 in August to -16.0 in September, weighing on the Aussie dollar.
The Index provides insights into the economic outlook as survey respondents across the private sector answer questions about employment, new orders, and production.
A softer number could signal weaker demand and a cooling labor market. Rising unemployment may soften wage growth, curbing consumer spending. A pullback in spending may dampen inflation, supporting the case for an RBA rate cut in November.
The AUD/USD pair briefly climbed to $0.66183 before falling to $0.66042 after the softer data.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Dovish RBA chatter and rising trade friction may push AUD/USD toward $0.655.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Hawkish RBA comments and easing trade tensions could send AUD/USD toward $0.665.
See our full AUD/USD analysis for detailed trends and trade setups.
US Labor Market Data and the Interest Rate Differential
Amid rising uncertainty about a November RBA rate cut, US labor market data could provide greater clarity on Fed policy this week.
A marked increase in nonfarm payrolls may temper bets on an October Fed rate cut. A more hawkish Fed rate path could widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential, favoring the US dollar and pushing AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA ($0.65556).
On the other hand, a lower print may fuel speculation about multiple Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter, narrowing the rate differential. A more dovish Fed policy stance could send AUD/USD toward $0.665.
Gold hangs close to fresh record highs above $3,870 early Wednesday.
US Dollar consolidates the downside on US government shutdown concerns.
Technically, Gold eyes more gains with the four-hourly RSI still within the bullish zone.
Gold keeps its record-setting rally intact early Wednesday, consolidating near lifetime highs above $3,870 as the United States (US) heads for an imminent government shutdown.
Gold capitalizes on US shutdown, delay in payrolls report
Kicking off the final quarter of 2025 on a bullish note, Gold buyers refuse to give up and flex their muscles as the US government funding expires at 04:00 GMT on Wednesday, with the Republicans and Democrats unlikely to strike a last-minute interim deal.
The last government shutdown stretched from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, lasting 35 days – during US President Donald Trump’s first term.
The immediate effect of a government shutdown will likely be the delay in the monthly labor market report, scheduled for this Friday, which is critical for the markets to gauge whether the US Federal Reserve will remain on track for two additional interest rate cuts this year.
Markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut later this month, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.
A likelihood of prolonged uncertainty on the US fiscal and monetary policy front is expected to rattle investors’ confidence in the US assets, including the US Dollar (USD), fuelling an increased rush to safety in the traditional safe haven Gold.
Meanwhile, the Greenback is also reeling from the pain of a mixed reading for the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The report showed US openings increased marginally by 19,000 in August, while hiring declined, consistent with a softening labor market.
All eyes now remain on the US government shutdown scenario and its likely impact on the broader market sentiment. If a shutdown happens, the US private sector payrolls by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will hog the limelight on Wednesday, in the absence of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release this Friday.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI and speeches from Fed policymakers could also drive the sentiment around Gold price.
Gold price technical analysis: Four-hourly chart
As observed on the four-hour chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains within the bullish territory, currently near 68.
Therefore, the leading indicator suggests that Gold still has more room to the upside, and that any dip could be quickly bought in.
However, if buyers refuse to give up, buyers yearn for acceptance above the $3,870 level on a daily closing basis to resume the bullish momentum.
The next topside hurdle is located at the $3,900 barrier as the hunt for the $4,000 mark remains on the radar.
Conversely, any retracement pullback could test the initial support at $3,806, the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA), below which the 50-SMA at $3,763 would be tested.
Deeper correction could target the September 24 low at $3,718, followed by the 100-SMA at $3,708.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The US dollar has fallen after initially trying to recover against the Japanese yen. It is sitting on top of the 200-day EMA, so we’ll see if that holds. It could end up being a buying opportunity. A move above the 149 yen level would be confirmation that there are plenty of buyers here, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out.
A breakdown below the 50-day EMA opens up a move back down to the 146-yen level. I do think choppiness is the order of the day, but really at this point in time, the Japanese yen, despite the fact that it has recovered the last couple of days, is not a currency I want to own.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar has broken higher again and now finds itself above the 0.66 level, perhaps making its way towards the 0.67 level over time. This is an interesting market because it has underperformed most of its colleagues against the US dollar. But at this point, maybe it’s finally starting to get a little bit more sustainable in its move higher. It is worth noting that the Australians kept their interest rate at the same level in the early hours of the day. So maybe that’s part of what it is. They just aren’t cutting as they stay at 3.6%.
All things being equal though, I am a little bit leery of getting aggressive until we can clear the top of the candlestick from last Wednesday, which isn’t too far away. It’s somewhere right around 0.6630. I think above there, then you have a little bit more confirmation. Otherwise, we may spend some time consolidating in this general vicinity.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was muted on Tuesday as the US released its latest JOLTs job openings and the UK published its latest GDP reading.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3444, virtually unchanged from the start of Tuesday’s session.
The US Dollar (USD) came under pressure on Tuesday, slipping against several major peers despite the release of stronger-than-expected labour market data.
August’s JOLTs job openings surprised to the upside, rising from a upwardly revised 7.208 million to 7.227 million, slightly above the 7.2 million forecast.
However, the upbeat figures failed to translate into meaningful support for the ‘Greenback’.
Investor caution surrounding the risk of a potential US government shutdown kept USD exchange rates on the back foot throughout Tuesday’s European session.
The Pound (GBP) traded in a subdued manner on Tuesday, showing little clear direction against its major peers.
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Sterling received only limited support from the release of the UK’s latest GDP data, which indicated a slower-than-expected pace of economic contraction.
The year-on-year growth figure for Q2 2025 fell from 1.7% to 1.4%, slightly outperforming forecasts that had predicted a drop to 1.2%.
Although the reading suggested some resilience in the UK economy, it was insufficient to spark a meaningful rally in the Pound.
As such, GBP exchange rates remained largely contained, weighed down by ongoing concerns over the broader economic outlook.
GBP/USD Forecasts: PMIs in Focus
Looking ahead to Wednesday’s European session, the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to be influenced by the latest manufacturing PMI releases from both the US and the UK.
In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to show a modest uptick, though it is still forecast to remain in contraction territory (a figure below 50).
If the data meets expectations, it could weigh on the US Dollar and limit its mid-week gains.
For the Pound, the UK will release its S&P Global manufacturing PMI.
While this report typically carries less influence than the UK’s services index, the sector is also forecast to remain firmly in contraction.
A weaker-than-expected reading could underscore ongoing challenges in UK manufacturing, potentially placing pressure on Sterling during the mid-week European session.
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While strength has been confirmed, natural gas now confronts a decision zone. The ABCD measured move symmetry between the rising AB and CD legs aligns with the 100% projected target at $3.34. This creates the possibility of a pivot and pullback, especially since a lower gap remains unfilled and the market has yet to revisit the 20-Day and 50-Day moving averages for support. These moving averages, converging near $3.00, represent important levels to watch if selling pressure emerges.
Path Toward 200-Day Average
A strong daily close above today’s high could open the door to higher levels. The next upside zone lies near the 200-Day moving average at $3.49, reinforced by the 127.2% ABCD projection at $3.50. The overlap of multiple indicators at this level strengthens its potential importance as resistance. Before that target is reached, however, natural gas must break decisively above a descending trendline, a move that would further confirm strengthening demand.
Outlook
The interaction with the long-term uptrend line has turned into a bullish signal. A sustained close above the 200-Day average would mark a significant shift in trend dynamics and encourage further bullish momentum. Until then, the $3.25 level serves as immediate support, while the $3.34–$3.35 area defines the near-term decision point for traders.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Support points for the EURUSD today: 1.1680 – 1.1600 – 1.1540.
Resistance points for the EURUSD today: 1.1760 – 1.1820 – 1.1900.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy the EURUSD from the support level of 1.1600, target 1.1760, and stop 1.1520.
Sell the EURUSD from the resistance level of 1.1820, target 1.1600, and stop 1.1900.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
Based on recent performance across reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD pair is undergoing a corrective decline towards a broken support area, following a sharp drop from its high of 1.1822. The Euro/Dollar pair appears to be testing key resistance levels that align with Fibonacci retracement levels, forming a potential clustering area where sellers may be waiting for an opportunity to reinforce the downtrend.
The Euro/Dollar price is currently hovering around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1755, which represents the first major resistance level in this correction. Any further drop may target the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.17545, while strong buying pressure could push the EUR/USD toward the 61.8% level at 1.17553. This last area also coincides with the former broken support zone, which may now act as a dynamic resistance area.
Therefore, if the Fibonacci resistance levels hold and the EUR/USD pair fails to consolidate at current levels, the pair may resume its decline towards the low of 1.1646 or target lower levels. Conversely, a break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level could signal a larger correction towards the psychological level of 1.1800. The moving average indicator shows that the 100-period simple moving average has fallen below the 200-period simple moving average, confirming the prevailing downtrend. This bearish crossover suggests that the decline may continue, and the two dynamic levels may act as additional resistance in the event of any attempt to rise.
However, price momentum indicators are showing some signs of recovery. The Stochastic indicator has risen from oversold territory and is currently indicating an uptrend, suggesting that buying pressure may emerge in the near term. The indicator still has room to rise before reaching overbought territory, suggesting that the correction may continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also reflects the current recovery attempt, having risen from severe oversold levels. The index remains below the central level, but it appears to be gaining momentum, which may indicate that buyers are beginning to intervene at these levels.
Trading Tips:
Keep in mind that the EUR/USD exchange rate may be influenced by the preliminary Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, in addition to key US labor market indicators ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) announcement on Friday.
EUR/USD in a volatile position
The Euro’s upward momentum appears to be increasingly fragile at this stage. The US Dollar started the new week on the back foot, allowing the British Pound and the Euro to stabilize and recover some of their previous losses. However, this weakness comes ahead of the release of important US economic data, including the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the private sector jobs report on Friday; any better-than-expected data will bolster the US Dollar’s rise.
The EUR/USD exchange rate saw a slight increase from Thursday’s low of 1.1650 to 1.1718 yesterday. The exchange rate has returned to its 9-day exponential moving average, but continued weakness is expected as long as it remains below it. In short, the euro’s strength is expected to be short-lived, as gains will attract sellers and lead to new declines.
The daily chart shows diminishing expectations for the Euro/Dollar: last week’s sell-off surpassed the ascending support line, signaling the end of the September rally.
Recently, US Treasury yields have risen in response to strong US economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve, fueling the dollar’s rise and the euro’s decline. According to forex trading experts, the September Federal Reserve meeting and positive US economic data have contributed to the euro against the dollar remaining within the 1.14-1.18 range since May.
According to the economic calendar, US GDP rose to 3.8% in the second quarter, the highest growth rate in two years. This level of economic growth does not indicate a need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, raising questions about previous market expectations of a rate cut at every meeting this year.
As rate-cut expectations diminish, the US Dollar’s price is rising against other major currencies.
