The British Pound initially rallied on Monday and has continued the recovery that started on Friday.
At this point, the market looks as if it is struggling to break above the top of the Thursday candlestick and that is something worth paying attention to.
After all, this is a market that sold off quite viciously on Wednesday and Thursday. And if we cannot break the Thursday candlestick, it shows that we just don’t have enough momentum to continue going higher.
If we can break above there, then we have the 50 day EMA to pay attention to. And again, the Wednesday candlestick is just above the 1.35 level. All things being equal, we are currently between the 50 day EMA, which is above and the 200 day EMA, which is below. And that typically will cause a bit of volatility.
Many Questions About the USD
There are a lot of questions right now as to what’s going to happen with the U S dollar, but it’s worth noting that the US dollar has actually strengthened since the interest rate cut that screams that something isn’t quite right.
Money is flowing into the U S dollar, mainly due to interest rates rising, despite the fact that the federal reserve is talking about cutting them. They aren’t cutting them quickly enough. And that’s part of the problem. Ultimately, if traders out there are a little bit concerned, they go to the US dollar because they need to go to the US treasury market.
The US treasury market demands those dollars, and that might be what’s happening here. Either way, I think we’ve got a situation where the dollar may have finally bottomed out. We’ll have to wait and see. But if we break down below the lows of the Friday candlestick, we then challenge the 200 day EMA and then possibly 1.32 below there. Anything below 1.32, we could see the British pound plunge.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Platinum price reached $1625.00 level in its last rally, then bounces quickly to settle below 261.8%Fibonacci extension level at $1605.00, forming a strong barrier against the attempt of holding within the bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image.
The price might be force to provide mixed trading, its stability above the extra support near $1525.00 besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances for confirm breaching the current barrier, to ease the mission of achieving extra gains that might extend to $1642.00 initially, reaching $1690.000.
The expected trading range for today is between $1565.00 and $1642.00
The GBPJPY pair failed to breach the barrier at 200.45, which forces it to provide new mixed trading by reaching 199.50, announcing its surrender to the sideways track that depends on forming extra support at 198.60 level, while the mentioned barrier represents the key of resuming the bullish attack.
Note that the continuation of the attempt of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances for some bullish waves, to attempt to press on the barrier, where surpassing it will make the price target new positive stations that begin at 200.95 and 201.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 198.80 and 200.45
WTI Crude (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) Rebound as Asia’s Imports Surge
WTI crude (CL=F) climbed 2.55% to $65.64, while Brent crude (BZ=F) rose 1.51% to $69.18, with gains reinforced by a rebound in Asia’s buying activity. Data showed that Asia’s August crude imports averaged 27.18 million barrels per day, up from July’s year-low of 24.91 million bpd and higher than a year earlier. China and India, which together drive more than a third of global oil demand, boosted imports after prices in May and June dropped into the low $60s per barrel. Opportunistic buying during that dip is now showing up in stronger August arrivals. However, forward flows could tighten again, as cargoes contracted after June’s spike above $80 per barrel during the Israel–Iran war will likely soften September imports.
Urals Oil and Russian Discounts Narrow Amid Tariffs and Caps
Urals crude is trading at $62 per barrel, narrowing its discount against Brent, which sits at $69.12. Since the G7’s $60 price cap was introduced in 2022, Urals has defied enforcement, trading above that level on 75% of days thanks to shipments through “dark fleets.” China remains the largest buyer, while Russia has kept its top-supplier position for India despite U.S. sanctions pressure. That dynamic shifted in late August when the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Indian imports of Russian oil, effective August 27, after New Delhi refused to scale back purchases. The EU and G7 allies will lower the threshold of the price cap to $46.50 per barrel, but enforcement remains patchy. This geopolitical tug-of-war is adding volatility across the curve, forcing traders to watch not just demand but also policy intervention.
Saudi Arabia’s Fiscal Stress as Brent Lingers Below $70
Saudi Arabia faces fiscal strain as Brent crude trades near $69, well below the estimated $90 per barrel price needed to balance its 2025 budget. Oil export revenues in April fell to $16.5 billion, down 21% year-over-year and the weakest in four years, as prices crashed 15% during the U.S. tariff blitz and OPEC+ production hikes. To finance its widening deficit, Riyadh is again tapping debt markets, issuing new tranches of Sukuk bonds. Investors placed $15 billion in orders by midday, showing global demand for Saudi debt remains strong despite oil’s downturn. Brent has lost 8% year-to-date, raising questions about how long Saudi can sustain spending on diversification projects while simultaneously defending market share.
OPEC+ Strategy and the Market Balancing Act
Speculation ahead of the OPEC+ meeting points to a likely rollover of current quotas, with no major cuts expected. The bloc faces a difficult balancing act: U.S. production set a record in 2024 and continues to beat weekly estimates in mid-2025, while Russia is keeping exports strong to Asia. Brent futures at $68.43 for November delivery and WTI October contracts at $64.91 show that markets are anchored in the mid-$60s to high-$60s range, struggling to break higher. The 200-day EMA sits at $62 for WTI and $70.52 for Brent, marking key technical pivot levels. For WTI, a sustained break above $66.50–$67.00 could target $70, while support lies at $62.00. Brent must clear $70.50–$73.00 to escape the consolidation band.
India and China: Winners of Cheaper Crude
India saved $12.6 billion on its oil import bill this year by leveraging discounted Russian crude, while China has expanded purchases from both Russia and Saudi Arabia. Together, their opportunistic buying strategies amplified August’s rebound in Asian imports. Yet this reliance comes at a geopolitical cost. Trump’s tariffs directly target India’s Russian inflows, and future U.S. policy may pressure Chinese refiners as well. India’s imports from sanctioned suppliers such as Nayara Energy are under scrutiny, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq suspending shipments in response to Western sanctions compliance issues. These disruptions highlight the fragility of Asia’s supply chain, where opportunistic savings clash with policy risks.
Geopolitical Shocks Add to Supply Volatility
Drone strikes forced Sudan to shut down production in the Heglig basin, cutting about 30,000 bpd. Separately, Houthis claimed a missile attack on an Israel-linked oil tanker in the Red Sea, and Russia’s Baltic fuel ports remain impaired after drone damage, extending repairs for months. Syria exported crude for the first time in 14 years, signaling the return of sanctioned barrels. These disruptions underscore how geopolitics are keeping risk premiums alive even as overall supply is abundant. Meanwhile, Russia and China advanced the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, aiming to add 50 bcm of gas annually to Chinese buyers, reshaping long-term flows in Eurasia.
Technical Market Setup for Oil
The structure of oil futures reflects an uneasy balance. WTI (CL=F) rebounded strongly off $62, with intraday highs near $65.80, but resistance remains layered until $70. Brent (BZ=F) at $69.12 faces stiff barriers at $70–$73, where the 200-day EMA is positioned. Gasoline prices rose sharply, up 3.61% to $2.04 per gallon, highlighting refining tightness despite soft crude benchmarks. Mars US crude trades at $71.28, while Bonny Light collapsed 2.84% to $78.62, showing regional disparities. OPEC’s basket held at $69.65, flat on the day. Technical charts still flash consolidation rather than breakout, with RSI readings neutral and traders waiting for clarity from OPEC+ and macro signals like U.S. nonfarm payrolls.
Final Positioning on Oil
With WTI at $65.64 and Brent at $69.18, the market is caught between opportunistic Asian demand and mounting geopolitical and fiscal risks. Tariffs, sanctions, and OPEC+ caution keep prices capped, while support at $62 for WTI and $68 for Brent prevents deeper selloffs. Oil’s near-term path depends on whether buyers can sustain momentum above technical ceilings or whether renewed oversupply pushes benchmarks back toward spring lows. The geopolitical premium is alive, but structural oversupply remains a ceiling on rallies.
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged higher on Monday as upbeat risk sentiment pressured the Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3437, up around 0.3% from the session open.
The US Dollar (USD) weakened at the start of the week despite a quiet calendar.
A broadly risk-on mood undercut safe-haven demand, leaving the Greenback on the defensive and posting losses against most peers through Monday’s European session.
The Pound (GBP) saw choppy trading in the absence of major UK data, with moves largely dictated by wider market appetite.
Sterling gained modestly against defensive currencies, while its risk-sensitive profile limited advances versus pro-cyclical rivals.
GBP/USD Forecasts: US Jobs Data in Focus
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Looking to Tuesday, the spotlight falls on the latest US JOLTs job openings report for August.
Forecasts point to a decline from 7.181 million to 7.1 million, signalling further cooling in the labour market.
If confirmed, concerns over job creation could weigh on the Dollar and give GBP/USD fresh momentum.
For Sterling, a quiet domestic calendar shifts attention to Bank of England speeches.
Any hawkish signals from policymakers could offer support and help the Pound hold firm as the week unfolds.
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For gold bulls, current price action on the daily chart is nothing short of picture-perfect.
Blasting through multiple key levels throughout 2025, most significantly the $3,000 mark first achieved in early March, gold pricing currently trades in excess of $3,800 per troy ounce for the first time in history, growing ever closer to $4,000.
Having found a base of around $3,250, forming a slight upwards trending channel, price action in early September would break this period of consolidation and mark the start of the current rally, which, at least so far, shows little sign of exhaustion.
With that said, we are currently in ‘overbought’ territory according to the RSI and trade some distance from the trendline, suggesting that short-term retracements are possible if the uptrend wishes to continue.
As ever, data suggesting the Federal Reserve outlook is to become more dovish will likely support metal pricing further, with the opposite being true if the Fed is seen to become more hawkish ahead of their October decision.
In line with Fibonacci theory, here are some key levels to watch:
Bank of America (BofA) raised its forecasts for 2026 and 2027 copper prices amid supply concerns and noted that demand is rebounding in Europe and set to stabilise in China .
The bank raised its copper price outlook for next year to $11,313 per ton from $10,188 and for 2027 to $13,500 per ton from $12,000.
Last week, Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia and said it is expecting consolidated sales to be lower for copper in the third quarter. Grasberg is the world’s second-largest copper mine after Escondida in Chile.
“The issues at Freeport’s Grasberg mine alone could increase next year’s deficit by 270,000 tons,” said BofA in a note dated Sunday. It added that this year’s mine supply is likely to fall short of nearly every forecast made over the past 15 years.
BofA said its real-time demand tracker shows European demand bottoming out, signalling gradual economic improvement, while demand in top consumer China is expected to stabilise.
Data showed that China’s industrial profits returned to growth in August even as businesses braced for a broader economic slowdown.
The note also flagged that London Metal Exchange warehouses have been running dry for some time, with the shortage worsening as spare tonnages were diverted to the U.S. ahead of expected trade restrictions that ultimately didn’t materialise.
“The tonnages in the U.S. are held under warehouse financing deals, so will in all likelihood only become available, when the market pays up. All this also raises the risk of periodic short squeezes on LME, which could push nearby prices violently higher,” it added.
In July, the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on copper pipes and wiring but details of the levy fell short of the sweeping restrictions expected and left out copper input materials such as ores, concentrates and cathodes.
Benchmark three-month copper HG1! on the LME added 2.3% to $10,411 a metric ton as of 14:21 GMT.
Today’s Support Levels for EUR/USD: 1.1645 – 1.1590 – 1.1500.
Today’s Resistance Levels for EUR/USD: 1.1740 – 1.1800 – 1.1880.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1580 with a target of 1.1760 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1780 with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss at 1.1880.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
During trading last week, the Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) fell to its lowest level in three weeks, testing the 1.1645 support level before attempting a bounce higher and stabilizing above the 1.1700 resistance ahead of the weekend close. The most prominent factor pressuring the Euro was the stronger-than-expected US economic data, which boosted the value of the US Dollar. Recently, market expectations for a US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have dropped, while analysts warned that a break of the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1660 could lead to further declines.
Nevertheless, Forex trading experts still believe there is a chance for the EUR/USD price to rise above 1.170 in the short term. According to licensed brokerage platforms, the EUR/USD exchange rate failed to rise last Thursday, dropping to its 3-week low below 1.1650 before regaining some ground to 1.1680 on Friday. The US economic data was stronger than anticipated, with no signs of an increase in unemployment, which boosted the value of the US Dollar against other major currencies.
Market expectations have recently shifted, with traders now seeing the probability of two US rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025 dropping to 60%. Technically, while the drop in the exchange rate was sharp, there are no indications of price stabilization yet. As long as the Euro remains below the 1.1715 support, it is possible for the decline to continue. However, it is unlikely to reach the main support level at 1.1610 for now.
In the same vein of forecasts, SocGen Bank believes the US Dollar is at a key support level: “The Euro-Dollar pair is currently testing an ascending support line since August; the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1660 is an important support level. If it fails to hold this level, the decline may continue. In this case, the next support levels for the EUR/USD pair could be the late August lows at 1.1600/1.1570 and 1.1500.”
However, ING Bank doubts the US Dollar’s ability to maintain its recent gains, stating: “We see it as likely that the Dollar will retreat from its current levels, and we expect it to drop below 1.170 in the near days.” The bank pointed to the potential for a further decline in the Euro’s value, explaining: “Alongside any other positive data from the US, another risk is that escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe could negatively impact currency markets. NATO recently stated it is ready to shoot down any Russian plane violating its airspace.”
Economic Data Still Supports the Dollar
MUFG Bank noted that US economic data was stronger than expected, saying: “It’s been a long time since we saw such positive and Dollar-supportive US economic data, but the recently released data was surprisingly positive. With markets recently leaning toward anticipating weak US economic data, we saw a notable Dollar rebound at a time when currency and bond markets are experiencing high volatility.”
The bank believes that the US labor market will be a decisive factor in determining the course of developments in the coming days, as the details of the US jobs report will be announced at the end of the week, which will, in turn, affect the future policies of the US Federal Reserve. According to currency experts’ forecasts, if US labor market data shows better-than-expected results this week, it will reinforce Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s stance on not cutting rates and will push the US central bank to consider the risks of rising inflation.
Future Price of the Euro in the Coming Days
According to reliable trading platforms, the Euro fell below $1.17 at the end of September, erasing the gains it made at the beginning of the month. It is expected to conclude the month near its current level, as traders balance monetary policy expectations and escalating trade tensions. The market currently still anticipates the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by an additional 0.25% twice this year, even though recent data showed the strength of the US economy and labor market.
In Europe, forecasts suggest the European Central Bank’s (ECB) easing cycle is nearing its end, after the bank kept interest rates unchanged in its two consecutive meetings in September. Economic indicators continue to show a mixed picture, with Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the services sector seeing some improvement, while the recession in the manufacturing sector worsens.
On the trade front, US President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on registered or patented pharmaceutical products, and a 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks. Meanwhile, reports indicated that the European Commission is preparing to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on Chinese steel imports.
Trading Advice:
We advise you to wait for the market reaction to the US employment report to clarify the picture regarding the best trading opportunities for the Euro-Dollar, whether to buy or sell.
The British Pound stayed pinned near two-month lows against the Euro at 1.1440, with the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) weighed by weak UK data, geopolitical jitters and fragile risk sentiment.
Analysts warn Sterling could suffer more than the euro if Russia tensions escalate, while fresh German IFO weakness underlines Europe’s sluggish growth backdrop.
Danske Bank still sees the pair sliding towards 1.1240 on a 12-month view.
GBP/EUR Forecasts: Near 2-Month Lows
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has remained on the defensive and trading just above 1.1440, close to 2-month lows recorded on Tuesday.
The Pound found it very difficult to make headway in global markets even with tailwinds for global equity markets which suggests underlying vulnerability while the Euro has drifted lower.
The FTSE 100 index posted significant losses on Wednesday following a dip on Wall Street and the Pound tends to be sensitive to risk conditions.
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If geo-political tensions with Russia intensify, the Euro and Pound would both be at risk, although Sterling would potentially be hit harder.
A drop below the July low near 1.1420 would risk further losses.
Danske Bank expects gradual GBP/EUR losses to 1.1240 on a 12-month view, but added; “The key risk to seeing EUR/GBP trade substantially higher than our forecast is a sharp sell-off in global risk and/or renewed focus on the UK’s fragile fiscal position.”
In rhetoric on Tuesday, President Trump shifted his position on Ukraine and suggested that it could regain all the territory that has been lost. He also called for a more aggressive NATO stance against Russia which could increase tensions within Europe.
ING commented; “If anything, there are downside risks for the euro and even more for higher-beta European currencies as Trump told EU allies to shoot down Russian planes violating NATO airspace.”
Rabobank noted the stronger tone in the latest NATO statements.
It added; “So while can only speculate about the next steps taken by NATO or Europe, opinions appear to be shifting and there can be little doubt that whatever comes next is going to be even more costly for Europe in many respects.”
The German IFO business confidence index dipped to 87.7 for September from a revised 88.9 previously and below consensus forecasts of 89.3.
The current assessment and expectations components both declined on the week.
According to the IFO; “Companies were less satisfied with current business, while their expectations clouded noticeably. Prospects for an economic recovery have suffered a setback.”
The German PMI services-sector index strengthened according to the latest PMI data, but the IFO commented on the sector; “Expectations have grown markedly more pessimistic, and the indicator fell to its lowest level since February.”
Rabobank noted that PMI business confidence data on Tuesday reported a decline in export orders which will be a headwind for the economy.
It added; “In summary, European growth will probably remain sluggish in the coming quarters.”
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GBP/USD holds comfortably above 1.3400 in the European session on Monday.
The renewed US Dollar weakness helps the pair stretch higher.
Market participant will keep a close eye on political developments in the US.
GBP/USD builds on Friday’s gains and trades in positive territory comfortably above 1.3400 in the European morning on Monday. The pair’s technical outlook is yet to point to a bullish reversal in the short term.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.17%
-0.33%
-0.61%
-0.11%
-0.31%
-0.04%
-0.16%
EUR
0.17%
-0.17%
-0.59%
0.05%
-0.15%
0.12%
-0.00%
GBP
0.33%
0.17%
-0.34%
0.22%
-0.04%
0.29%
0.17%
JPY
0.61%
0.59%
0.34%
0.53%
0.34%
0.44%
0.50%
CAD
0.11%
-0.05%
-0.22%
-0.53%
-0.16%
0.07%
-0.05%
AUD
0.31%
0.15%
0.04%
-0.34%
0.16%
0.26%
0.14%
NZD
0.04%
-0.12%
-0.29%
-0.44%
-0.07%
-0.26%
0.03%
CHF
0.16%
0.00%
-0.17%
-0.50%
0.05%
-0.14%
-0.03%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand at the beginning of the week as the deadline for the US government shutdown looms.
United States (US) President Donald Trump will meet with top congressional leaders from both parties later in the day to finalize a funding deal and avoid a shutdown. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer reportedly demands the funding bill to contain an extension of the enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies to get his party’s support to pass the spending package.
In the absence of high-impact macroeconomic data releases, investors will scrutinize political developments in the US. In case markets grow optimistic about lawmakers funding the government beyond September 30, the USD could stage a rebound and cause GBP/USD to lose its traction. Conversely, the USD could stay under bearish pressure if no deal is reached moving towards the deadline.
On Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics will publish a revision to the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth data.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly above 50, while GBP/USD continues to trade below the 100-period and the 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Additionally, GBP/USD stays below the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day SMAs, reflecting a lack of bullish momentum.
On the downside, the first support area could be spotted at 1.3410-1.3400 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend, round level) ahead of 1.3330 (static level) and 1.3300 (round level). Looking north, resistance levels could be seen at 1.3470-1.3475 (50-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), 1.3490-1.3500 (100-day SMA, 20-day SMA, 200-period SMA) and 1.3550 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
