The GBPJPY pair succeeded in taking advantage of the main indicator’s positiveness, forming a strong bullish rally, achieving the previously suggested targets by reaching 196.18, forming a temporary negative rebound, in order to catch its breath before forming a new bullish attack.
The bullish track will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support near 194.20, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, to expect surpassing 196.30 and reaching the next target at 197.35, to face 61.8%Fibonacci correction level.
The expected trading range for today is between 195.25 and 197.35
The GBPJPY pair succeeded in taking advantage of the main indicator’s positiveness, forming a strong bullish rally, achieving the previously suggested targets by reaching 196.18, forming a temporary negative rebound, in order to catch its breath before forming a new bullish attack.
The bullish track will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support near 194.20, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, to expect surpassing 196.30 and reaching the next target at 197.35, to face 61.8%Fibonacci correction level.
The expected trading range for today is between 195.25 and 197.35
The British pound did fall during the day on Friday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
That being said, the market is likely to continue to look at the 1.3650 level above as a major barrier.
If we can break above there, then I think we have a lot of buyers coming back into the picture and pushing the British pound to the 1.40 level.
That being said, the market is likely to see a lot of noise in this area. And I do think we continue to consolidate between 1.34 at the bottom and 1.3650 on the top. So, with that being the case, I think you’ve got a scenario where we just go back and forth, but I’ll be watching the 1.34 level for a potential breakdown. If we break down below there, then we could go look into the 50-day EMA.
On a move to the upside, breaking above that 1.3650 level, again, I think you see the British pound going looking to the 1.40 level. In that environment, I would anticipate that the US dollar is selling off everywhere.
US Dollar Strength
However, it’s probably worth noting that the US dollar strengthen against everything due to better than anticipated jobs numbers coming out of America. So, it’s very possible that we are getting close to seeing the end of US dollar selling, especially with the massive amount of increase in rates that I have seen over the last couple of weeks.
At this point in time, I anticipate that we see a lot of sideways action, but overall, I think there is still a lot of overhang when it comes to this market, as we had gotten a little bit ahead of ourselves. Ultimately, this is a pair that I’ll be watching very closely, because it could give us a bit of a “heads up” as to how the US dollar will behave overall.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Gold price extends losing streak into early Monday, awaits US-China trade talks.
The US Dollar reverses Nonfarm Payrolls-led gains, bracing for May CPI inflation.
Gold price turns south after facing rejection at the key daily resistance at $3,377.
Gold buyers stay hopeful until the 21-day SMA and RSI midline are defended.
Gold price is battling the $3,300 threshold early Monday amid a bearish start to a critical week. Traders eagerly await the US-China trade talks on Monday and Wednesday’s US consumer inflation data for a fresh trading impetus in Gold price.
Gold price eyes US-China trade talks after NFP beat
Gold price is trading on thin ice even as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground following a steep advance led by the above forecasts US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday.
The headline NFP data showed that the US economy added 139,000 jobs in May after reporting a revised 147,000 job gain in April, beating estimates of a 130,000 print.
Strong US employment data eased expectations of more than two interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, justifying the central bank’s prudent approach while lifting the USD at the expense of the Gold price.
In Monday’s trading so far, the Greenback is feeling the angst of the worsening riots in Los Angeles (LA) over immigration issues.
According to CNN News, “immigration authorities and demonstrators have clashed for three days in the LA area, with unrest beginning Friday after dozens of people were detained by federal immigration agents across different locations.”
Intensifying the fragile situation, US President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of 2,000 National Guard troops to quell the protests, overriding California Governor Gavin Newsom’s objections in a rare move.
Additionally, USD markets stay unnerved ahead of the much-awaited US-China trade talks due later in the day.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in the United Kingdom (UK) on Monday for economic and trade consultations.
Traders also resort to adjusting their USD positions ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data slated for release on Wednesday. The ongoing spat between Trump and Space X founder Elon Musk also remains a headwind for the buck.
Looking ahead, further optimism on the US-China trade front could fuel a fresh leg down in Gold price. However, the downside could remain limited amid US political and civil concerns while the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical escalation could also remain supportive of the traditional safe-haven Gold price.
China’s disinflation and widening trade surplus data have little to no impact on the bright metal, as yet. China is the world’s top Gold consumer.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
According to the short-term technical outlook, Gold price’s bullish bias remains in place.
Buyers continue to defend the confluence of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,297.
Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above the midline, adding credence to the bullish potential.
Gold sellers need a daily candlestick closing below the abovementioned strong support at $3,297 to challenge the 50-day SMA cap at $3,262.
The last line of defense for buyers is aligned at $3,232, the 50% Fibo level of the same ascent.
On the flip side, Gold buyers will likely find strong offers at the $3,350 psychological level if the rebound gathers strength.
The next resistance is spotted at the 23.6% Fibo resistance at $3,377, above which the May high of $3,439 could be threatened.
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
Gold price trades flat around $3,310 in Monday’s early Asian session.
US NFP increased by 139,000 in May, more than expected; Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%.
The US-China trade talks will be the highlight later on Monday.
The Gold price (XAU/USD ) trades on a flat note near $3,310 during the early Asian session on Monday. The rebound in the US Dollar (USD) could weigh on the precious metal. However, uncertainty from US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies might help limit the Gold’s losses.
Stronger-than-expected US jobs growth in May lifts the Greenback and undermine the USD-denominated commodity price. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) climbed by 139,000 in May compared to the 147,000 increase (revised from 177,000) in April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Friday. This reading came in above the market consensus of 130,000.
The US Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2% in May, while the Average Hourly Earnings remained unchanged at 3.9% in the same reported period. Both readings came in stronger than the market expectation.
Following the upbeat US job report, Federal Fund Futures pointed to a larger chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep its benchmark interest rate steady at its next two monetary policy meetings.
Investors will closely monitor trade talks between the US and China later on Monday, as Trump said that the world’s two largest economies will hold trade talks in London. Any signs of an escalating trade war between the US and China might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Is the US dollar carving a higher low for the first time in 2025?
Get all of the details on the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and the Yen Basket of Currencies in today’s forecast. The GBPUSD analysis is a must-see.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The DXY closed last week just above the 98.90 level, keeping bulls in the game for now.
However, the downtrend in 2025 remains intact. The DXY remains below its February descending trend line and the 100.20 handle.
So, although we could see the US dollar bottom here, bulls have work to do. Specifically, the DXY will have to break its February trend line and close a daily candle above 100.20.
Until then, there’s no change to the USD downtrend.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and the Yen Index (June 9-13, 2025) 6
EURUSD Forecast
EURUSD has trended higher all year. However, the pace of the uptrend has slowed in recent weeks, leading to relatively choppy price action since May 12th.
Although the uptrend remains intact, the euro’s future direction is at a crossroads.
On the one hand, buyers remain in control, with the pair carving higher highs and lows. However, on the other hand, the recent repeated tests of the March trend line warrant caution.
If the EURUSD breaks its March trend line near 1.1340 next week, it will open up downside targets. But if the uptrend continues, a test of 1.1530 could be next.
I’m in no rush to trade the choppy price action, so I’ll wait to see what next week brings.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and the Yen Index (June 9-13, 2025) 7
GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD remains in its 2025 uptrend, carving higher highs and lows. However, the price action over the last few months bears an eerie resemblance to the 2024 high.
With that said, there is no confirmation of a top just yet. As long as GBPUSD is above 1.3500 and 1.3430, the pair is trending higher.
If the pound falls below those levels on the high time frames, it could mark a significant top for GBPUSD. That would expose levels like 1.3200 and the 1.3050 imbalance.
On the other hand, a sustained break above 1.3630 would open up higher levels. But I would be skeptical of that, given the structure that has developed since April.
Another factor affecting the pound and the euro is the DXY. The dollar index will need to break its February trend line and 100.20 to signal a correction from the EURUSD and GBPUSD.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and the Yen Index (June 9-13, 2025) 8
USDJPY Forecast
USDJPY is on my radar, but only if the yen basket of currencies (below) breaks below a key level. I discuss this more below, but for USDJPY, key resistance remains at 145.40, followed by 148.70.
The potential for the recent 142.00 low to become a higher low is present. However, we don’t have confirmation of that yet.
Other rules also apply when trading USDJPY. The yen basket chart needs to drop below a key level, and the DXY needs to break out for me to consider a long position in USDJPY.
For now, I’ll keep a close watch on USDJPY. However, other charts need to set up for me to consider trading the pair.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and the Yen Index (June 9-13, 2025) 9
Japanese Yen Basket (JPYBASKET)
The Yen Basket of Currencies, or JPY Basket for short, is an appealing chart. It’s also a chart that’s overlooked by most traders, given how USDJPY is usually the center of attention.
However, the descending trend line on the weekly time frame from 2020 is incredibly well-defined. The index may also be approaching a weekly close below the level after breaking out earlier this year.
If it is confirmed, we could have a buy-side fakeout for the yen. That could introduce significant weakness for the JPY across the forex market.
The Yen Basket has already broken its 2024 ascending trend line, suggesting a weaker yen ahead. However, for the yen to weaken further, the JPY Basket needs to fall below its 2020 trend line, currently near 6,650, on a weekly closing basis.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and the Yen Index (June 9-13, 2025) 10
The GBP/USD weekly forecast indicates trade optimism in the UK.
A better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report allowed the dollar to recover on Friday.
Next week, the US will release crucial inflation figures.
The GBP/USD weekly forecast indicates trade optimism in the UK after exemptions from Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs.
Ups and downs of GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair had a bullish week as the pound gained on trade optimism and a weak dollar. However, the dollar recovered on Friday after upbeat employment figures.
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The UK has already signed a trade deal with the US. Therefore, when Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum, Britain was exempted. At the same time, the dollar fell at the start of the week due to downbeat data on business activity and private employment. This allowed the pound to gain. However, a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report allowed the dollar to recover on Friday.
Next week’s key events for GBP/USD
Next week, market participants will focus on key economic reports from the UK, including employment, manufacturing production, and GDP. Meanwhile, the US will release consumer and wholesale inflation figures.
UK employment and GDP numbers will show the state of the economy, shaping the outlook for BoE policy. At the moment, market participants expect the central bank to pause at its next meeting. Still, the outlook for future moves will continue to change with incoming data.
Meanwhile, US inflation numbers will show whether Trump’s tariffs have increased price pressures. If not, policymakers will be confident to cut rates in September.
On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has made new peaks near the 1.3603 key level. Moreover, it trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50, indicating a solid bullish bias. However, while the price has reached a new high in the uptrend, the RSI has made a lower high, indicating a bearish divergence.
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This is a sign that bullish momentum is fading. Therefore, bears might get stronger and push the price below the 22-SMA. Such a move would allow GBP/USD to retest the 1.3201 support level. However, bulls will remain in the lead as long as the price stays above the support trendline.
On the other hand, if bulls regain momentum, the price will likely retest the 1.3603 resistance level. A break above would strengthen the bullish bias by making a higher high.
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Today’s short-term bearish price action reflects weakness following a potentially significant bull breakout that was triggered on Monday. A double breakout occurred on Monday as gold rose above a downtrend line and prior swing high (B). Today’s price action shows a potential failure of the breakout, as there has been no upside follow-through, other than a failed attempt to continue higher on Thursday.
Gold fell below two trendlines today that represented potential support, a declining purple line and rising blue line. A decline below the lower blue line could lead to further weakness as it represented dynamic support for the near-term uptrend that began from the May swing low (A). This will change the angle of ascent for the trend and therefore a recovery may not occur quickly.
Potential Support Levels
Potential support around the 20-Day MA at $3,29, is enhanced by this week’s low, which showed support at $3,296. However, it also indicates a greater potential risk of a deeper pullback. Gold is set to end the week with a bearish shooting star weekly candlestick pattern. And it follows a failed upside breakout. Failed patterns can lead to sharp moves the other direction.
Weekly Bearish Pattern
A drop below this week’s low will make last week’s low of $3,245, a potential downside target. Note that it aligns with the higher swing low (C) on the daily chart. However, the 50-Day MA marks a potential higher support level, now at $3,260. The 20-Day MA has not been confirmed as key dynamic trend support yet as the line has gone through a consolidation range since the May 1 interim swing low. Therefore, the 50-Day MA becomes a potential target.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Today’s bullish price action represents a likely completion to the short three-day consolidation that followed Monday’s strong advance. It puts natural gas in a position to again challenge a resistance zone that was tested during four of the past five weeks. It is identified by weekly highs from $3.82 to $3.84 (B). The high price was the most recent swing high that led to a pullback. This behavior shows strong resistance. But if it is broken to the upside, a trend continuation signal is triggered and the continuation of the rising ABCD pattern, measured from the April low (A).
Signs of Strength
Nonetheless, since there have been signs of strong resistance and there is a large consolidation range above (head and shoulders top), until there is a decisive upside breakout there remains a risk that a bearish reversal could occur. Currently, that possibility would become more likely on a decline below today’s low. An initial potential support zone is at $3.52 currently, which is the convergence of the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs, therefore adding significance to the price zone.
Bull Breakout Above $3.84
Nonetheless, if an upside breakout triggers above $3.84, the next decision point looks to be an upside target zone from $4.08 to $4.12, consisting of the initial target from a rising ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, respectively. Since the two levels are relatively close together, they could act like a magnet for price following a confirmed upside breakout. Confirmation would occur on a daily close above the price level.
Trend Points to Higher Prices
Notice that a swing low of $2.86 was established at the end of the bearish correction that followed the trend high of $4.90 in March. The subsequent advance from that low established a higher angle of ascent for the long-term trend, relative to the lower purple trendline that connects to the August 2024 swing low. This shows improving momentum and is supportive of a potential bull breakout and move for the price of natural gas.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The GBPJPY pair renewed the bullish attempts by its rally above 194.55 level, attempting to confirm the suggested bullish scenario, achieving some gains by hitting 195.30 level.
Note that the beginning of providing positive momentum will reinforce the chances for forming strong bullish waves, to expect attacking 195.70 level, and surpassing it will make it target new bullish stations, by reaching 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at 197.35, while the decline below 194.00 will force it to delay the rise and provide mixed trading again.
The expected trading range for today is between 194.45 and 195.70
