EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Upward.
• Today’s Euro-Dollar Support Levels: 1.1355 – 1.1280 – 1.1200.
• Today’s Euro-Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1445 – 1.1520 – 1.1600.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy Euro-Dollar from the 1.1240 support level with a target of 1.1420 and a stop-loss of 1.1160.
• Sell Euro-Dollar from the 1.1480 resistance level with a target of 1.1200 and a stop-loss of 1.1600.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has seen a significant rise from its recent lows, trading above a clearly defined uptrend line and moving towards critical Fibonacci resistance levels. The Euro-Dollar is currently trading at 1.1395 after encountering headwinds near the 50% retracement level at 1.1341, indicating that bears are defending this key technical area.

The EUR/USD pair has successfully surpassed several moving averages, with dynamic support levels forming the basis of its recent advance. This bullish moving average formation confirms that the stronger path has shifted to the upside, at least in the near term. From a Fibonacci perspective, the EUR/USD is approaching a crucial turning point. The 38.2% retracement level at 1.1361 could provide short-term support, while the 50% level at 1.1341 appears consistent with a previous resistance zone. A larger correction could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1420, which coincides with the rising trendline support and could act as a turning point in an uptrend. In other words, a break below this level could be an early signal of a trend reversal.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp follower, the Euro-Dollar pair will remain near its gains pending reactions to key US economic releases and the future of the US-European trade dispute.

Meanwhile, the ascending trendline support, originating from swing lows, continues to provide a bullish backdrop for the pair. As long as the price stays above this rising support, the medium-term outlook favors further upward momentum. Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The Stochastic indicator is hovering in the overbought zone, suggesting that the upward momentum might lose steam in the short term. This could lead to a period of consolidation or a slight pullback to absorb recent gains. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought levels but has not yet reached extreme readings, indicating that buyers may still have some strength to continue the ascent.

Overall, EUR/USD traders should closely monitor the 50% Fibonacci level, as any decisive break above 1.1350 could trigger momentum-driven buying towards the next resistance cluster around 1.1420-1.1425.

On the economic data front today, we’ll first monitor the announcement of the German GFK Consumer Climate index at 9:00 AM EEST. Then, more importantly, US durable goods orders will be released at 3:30 PM EEST. ce will also be announced on the same day at 5:00 PM EEST.

Factors Influencing Recent Euro-Dollar Performance:

According to trading on licensed brokerage platforms, the Euro price slightly rose towards $1.14, its strongest level in about a month, after US President Trump announced a delay in imposing the planned 50% tariffs on EU imports. Last Friday, Trump had stated that trade talks with the EU were “making no progress” and suggested imposing heavy tariffs starting June 1.

However, following a phone call with European Commission President von der Leyen, Trump announced an extension of trade negotiations until July 9. Under the reciprocal tariff framework unveiled in April, the EU faces a 20% tariff, which was temporarily reduced to 10% until the new deadline. At the same time, the Eurozone’s economic outlook remains fragile. The European Commission lowered its 2024 economic growth forecast to 0.9%. May’s PMI data showed private sector activity unexpectedly slipped into contraction in both the Eurozone and Germany, driven by a sharp slowdown in the services sector amid weak domestic demand.

On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates at its June meeting.

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May 27, 2025 – Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Price Softens as Tariff Reprieve Boosts Dollar

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate softened on Tuesday, as USD investors welcomed Donald Trump’s delay of tariffs on the EU.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD traded at $1.3535, down over 0.2% since the European session started.

The Pound (GBP) attempted to find its footing on Tuesday but struggled to make meaningful gains, as downbeat UK retail data counteracted a string of encouraging trade developments.

A fresh blow came from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), whose latest distributive trades survey – a measure of retail sales – slumped to -27 in May, sharply down from -8 the previous month and well below expectations of -18. The disappointing figures suggested a more fragile consumer backdrop than anticipated, dampening investor appetite for Sterling and curbing its upside against stronger currencies.

This weaker economic reading came despite otherwise constructive news on the trade front. Reports that Toyota may relocate some of its GR Corolla sports car production to the UK were seen as a tentative endorsement of Britain’s appeal as a transatlantic manufacturing hub. Analysts were quick to point out that the UK’s growing list of trade agreements, including recent progress with both the US and India, could enhance its role as a key export platform.

The US Dollar (USD) found some relief on Tuesday, clawing back ground after a sharp sell-off last week fuelled by concerns over the health of the US economy and its growing debt burden.

Investors took some comfort from the news that Donald Trump has decided to delay a planned wave of steep tariffs on EU imports. The 50% levy – originally set to take effect on 1 June – has been pushed back to 9 July following a call between Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Markets were cheered by this sign that US trade talks may be progressing, amid previous fears they had slowed or stalled. This helped the Dollar regain some poise.

However, while the tariff pause was seen as a positive for the domestic economy, it also lifted broader market sentiment – encouraging a modest risk-on mood that tempered demand for the safe-haven ‘Greenback’.

Looking ahead, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is likely to take its cues from the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes.

Investors will be poring over the details for clues on whether the Fed intends to stick to its cautious, data-dependent stance. If policymakers signal that they’re willing to hold off on rate cuts until the inflationary impact of potential tariffs becomes clearer, the US Dollar may find fresh momentum.

Conversely, any indication that Fed officials are growing increasingly concerned about stagnating growth or leaning towards earlier policy easing could sap support for the ‘Greenback’.

With few major data releases on the UK or US calendars this week, broader market mood may also play a role. A more upbeat global risk tone could give Sterling a leg-up, while denting appetite for the safer US Dollar.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• GBP/USD trades modestly lower on the day below 1.3550.
• The technical suggests that the bullish bias remains intact but loses momentum.
• Markets await mid-tier data releases from the US.

GBP/USD corrects lower and trades slightly below 1.3550 on Tuesday after setting a new multi-year peak near 1.3600 on Monday. The pair remains technically bullish but struggles to preserve its momentum.

The broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness on growing concerns over the fiscal outlook helped GBP/USD stretch higher at the beginning of the week. With financial markets remaining closed in observance of the Memorial Day holiday, however, the trading action turned subdued in the second half of the day on Monday, limiting GBP/USD’s upside.

US stock index futures gain more than 1% in the European session on Tuesday, reflecting an improving risk mood. Easing fears over a prolonged trade conflict between the European Union and the United States (US) following US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay 50% tariffs on European imports until July 9 seems to be allowing risk flows to return to markets.

Later in the day, April Durable Goods Orders and May CB Consumer Confidence Index data from the US will be watched closely by market participants. A noticeable recovery in consumer sentiment could support the USD with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, a further deterioration in confidence could hurt the currency and help GBP/USD regain its traction.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays above 60 and GBP/USD remains within the upper half of the ascending regression channel, while holding above the 20-period Simple Moving Average, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact in the near term.

Looking south, first support could be seen at 1.3500 (static level, round level) before 1.3480 (mid-point of the ascending channel) and 1.3400 (static level, round level). On the upside, 1.3600 (static level) aligns as the first resistance level ahead of 1.3720 (upper limit of the ascending channel).

May 27, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK EUR/USD Forecast: Trade Relief Boosts Euro on Dollar Fears

Just after the Asian open on Monday, President Trump executed another tariff-policy shift, reversing Friday’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on EU exports to the US from June 1st.

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate jumped to 4-week highs just below 1.1420 before settling just below 1.1400.

Scotiabank commented; “There is a little congestion on the daily chart between 1.1380/1.1420 which may slow gains in the short run ahead of a retest of the 1.16 area (and possibly higher, potentially towards the 1.18/1.20 range).”

Trump has backtracked on the June 1st threat with a concession that there would be a delay until July 9th.

This puts the EU back to the previous position with the reciprocal tariffs on most countries due to come in on July 9th following the 90-day delay from April 9th.

There would have been notable damage to the Euro-Zone economy if the June 1st tariffs had come into effect and the delay has, therefore, triggered a sense of relief.

There is still a major element of uncertainty over US tariff policy.

Barclays noted underlying uncertainty; “the US has not turned the page on tariffs and that more trade policy volatility lies ahead.”

National Australia Bank head of FX research Ray Attrill commented; “The ‘Sell America’ theme, which obviously was the dominant theme back in April, is back on show.”

He added; “Markets have probably taken the view – and probably rightly so – that where we land eventually on a tariff situation between the U.S. and the EU is not going to be at 50%, but how we get there is frankly anybody’s guess at the moment.”

The Euro secured further net support from China’s pledge to provide more support for the domestic economy.

According to Premier Li Qiang, China is weighing new policy tools in the face of international economic and trade order that is “under severe impact.”

He added that China is studying new policy tools, including some “unconventional measures”, which will be launched as the situation changes.

Unease surrounding fiscal policy direction has amplified dollar unease. After the House of Representatives approved the budget bill on Friday, there will be a tough battle in the Senate during June.

Rabobank commented; “While there is a wide variation of views about the US budget, growth and inflation outlooks, the heightening of risks surrounding all three has been clearly making the treasury market jittery. In turn, this is having negative repercussions for US stocks as well as the USD.”

Pepperstone head of research Chris Weston commented; “What seems clear from the reconciliation bill is that Trump and (Treasury Secretary Scott) Bessent have shifted tactics, swivelling hard from fiscal conservatism and reduced spending to an outright pro-growth policy stance.”

He added; “It is fast becoming a consensus view that the USD is on the path to a multi-year decline.”

Standard Chartered does see scope for a short-term dollar recovery; “In the near term, renewed appetite for US assets and closing of earlier bearish positions should offer support for the USD.”

It considers that this could drive EUR/USD below 1.10.

The bank remains cautious over the longer-term outlook; “However, we expect this USD bounce to be temporary. Ongoing rotation out of US assets and elevated USD valuations are likely to lead to a modestly weaker USD in the longer term.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts