• Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Renewed trade tensions, weak housing data, or dovish Fed rhetoric could drag USD/JPY toward 142.5.
• Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Positive trade developments, stronger housing data, or hawkish Fed cues may lift USD/JPY toward 145 and potentially the 50-day EMA.

See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.

AUD/USD in Focus: US-China Trade News in Spotlight

On May 23, US-China trade developments and policy news from Beijing will influence AUD/USD trends. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently underscored the threat of a trade war. She stated on May 20 that such conflict could push Australia into recession. She also warned:

“Australia’s economy could easily be compromised if a trade war between the US and China escalates… The market path is reflecting a possibility of a really bad outcome, pointing to a lower RBA cash rate.”

Renewed US-China tensions could impact Aussie dollar demand on recession fears, dragging AUD/USD lower. However, Beijing may counter with fresh stimulus, targeting domestic demand and consumption. Improving demand may drive AUD/USD higher, given China accounts for one-third of Aussie exports and Australia’s high trade-to-GDP ratio.

AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch

• Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: Renewed US-China friction, Beijing’s silence on stimulus, or dovish RBA cues may send AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA and the $0.63623 support level.
• Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: De-escalation in US-China trade tensions, Beijing stimulus, or hawkish RBA signals could drive the pair above the 200-day EMA toward the May 14 high of $0.65008.

Click here for a more comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights.

Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: Fed Impact and Home Sales Data

The USD side of the equation will also influence AUD/USD later today. Weak US housing data may boost Fed rate cut bets, narrowing the US-Aussie interest rate differential in favor of the AUD. A more dovish Fed could send AUD/USD above the 200-day EMA toward $0.6450 and the May 7 high of $0.65144. On the other hand, strong data may widen the rate differential, dragging AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA and the $0.63623 support level.

May 22, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to US Dollar Forecast: “Trend in GBPUSD Remains Bullish”

US Dollar exchange rates have remained under pressure in global markets with ongoing fears surrounding US fiscal policy, especially with the Big Beautiful Budget Bill approved in the House of Representatives.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) dipped to just below 1.3400 before a recovery to 1.3420.

According to Scotiabank, “With investor focus on US fiscal policy intensifying amid US budget negotiations, the performance of US Treasury bonds will likely continue to influence the USD and risk appetite.”

The Pound has not been able to take full advantage of dollar weakness due to reservations surrounding the UK budget position with weaker risk appetite and a fresh increase in UK bond yields also hampering Sterling.

According to Scotiabank; “The trend in GBPUSD remains bullish, with consolidation just below Wednesday’s multi-year high. The RSI is just below 60, leaving ample room for further near-term gains.”

A sustained break above 1.3450 would lead to an initial target of 1.35, but is likely to be dependent on further dollar losses.

According to ING “the USD can find some support, but a sustained recovery looks unlikely.”

The dollar initially came under pressure in Wednesday’s New York session.

There was a weak 20-year bond auction which triggered fresh concerns over the outlook and there was a sharp decline in Treasuries with a jump in yields.

MUFG commented; “The auction has basically resulted in another day of triple selling of US assets which will only reinforce the doubts over confidence in US assets.”

Just ahead of Thursday’s New York open, the House of Representatives approved the Budget Bill and it will now head to the Senate.

The 10-year yield moved sharply higher to a 3-month high above 4.60% after the Bill was approved by a 215-214 vote with equity futures also sliding.

Unease is likely to be magnified by last-minute changes to Bill which puts further upward pressure on deficits and debt.

MUFG added; “Nearly all of the S&P’s drop yesterday (-1.6%) came in response to the auction and underlines the increasing sensitivity of investors risk appetite to bad news for US Treasuries and underlines the risks being taken by the Trump administration in relation to the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’.

Domestically, the April borrowing requirement increased to £20.2bn for April from £19.2bn the previous year

RSM economist Thomas Pugh commented; “With the public finances in a pretty dire state going into what is likely to be a much tougher Q2 and second half of the year for the economy, some fiscal consolidation in October, probably in the form of higher taxes, looks likely.”

The UK 10-year yield has moved above the 4.80% level to 6-week highs and is not far below January highs which will increase fears over debt interest payments, the deficit and wider damage to the economy.

Citi commented; “GBP has outperformed on relatively more hawkish BoE market pricing and trade deals with the EU and US; however, we suspect any increase in term premium risk that spills into the Gilt market can quickly see GBP weakness, especially as fiscal issues remain unresolved in the UK keeping term premium elevated.”

The CBI industrial trends survey retreated to -30 for May from -26 previously while PMI data was mixed with on-going manufacturing weakness, but a limited recovery in services.

Commerzbank Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann commented; “Cable did gain ground yesterday, but this was more a USD story than GBP-driven. The strong inflation figures did not help against the Euro or the G10 average. For me, this means that for the pound to continue to gain ground across the board in the coming days and weeks, something new will have to happen.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Upward.
• Today’s Euro-Dollar Support Levels: 1.1290 – 1.1230 – 1.1180.
• Today’s Euro-Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1385 – 1.1455 – 1.1520.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy Euro-Dollar from the 1.1255 support level with a target of 1.1440 and a stop-loss of 1.1180.
• Sell Euro-Dollar from the 1.1410 resistance level with a target of 1.1150 and a stop-loss of 1.1500.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

The continued weakness of the US dollar in the forex markets allowed EUR/USD bulls to complete the upward trajectory, culminating in a move towards the resistance level of 1.1362, the pair’s highest level in two weeks. Concurrently, the pair is stabilizing around its gains ahead of the announcement of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for the manufacturing and services sectors for the Eurozone and US economies. The European readings will begin with France at 10:15 AM Cairo time, followed by the German readings a quarter of an hour later, concluding with the Eurozone readings as a whole at 11:00 AM Cairo time.

US manufacturing and services PMI readings will be announced at 2:45 PM EEST. Prior to that, weekly US unemployment claims will be released. Overall, the results of these economic data will have a strong and direct impact on the performance of the EUR/USD pair, determining whether the week closes higher or lower.

Why Did Euro-Dollar Gains Persist?

According to performance across licensed currency trading platforms, Euro-Dollar gains have increased, supported by widespread US dollar weakness amid growing concerns about the American financial outlook. Discussions surrounding a proposed US tax cut bill have heightened fears that the budget deficit could worsen more rapidly than previously expected, following Moody’s recent downgrade of the US credit rating.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp follower, keep in mind that breaking the 1.14 resistance is an important sign of the bulls’ strong control over the Euro-Dollar’s direction. Monitor the factors influencing the currency pair and don’t take undue risks.

In Europe, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Financial Stability Review for May 2025 highlighted increasing concerns about financial stability in the Eurozone, pointing to escalating geopolitical tensions and continued policy uncertainty. The ECB warned that a weak economic outlook and trade disruptions could negatively impact businesses and households, while new spending pressures – such as increased defence budgets – could challenge long-term debt sustainability.

Earlier in the same week, investor confidence was boosted by news of a preliminary agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom on key issues including defence and security cooperation, fisheries, and youth mobility.

Technical Levels for the Euro vs. the US Dollar:

Dear TradersUp trader, based on the daily timeframe chart, the EUR/USD pair is moving within an upward channel. A move towards the psychological resistance of 1.1400 will strengthen the upward outlook, preparing for further technical upward breakouts. Despite recent gains, technical indicators still have room to move towards stronger upward levels before confirming an overbought trend. This is evident in the performance of the 14-day RSI and the MACD indicator, both poised for upward movement.

Currently, the nearest and most important resistance levels for Euro-Dollar are 1.1400, 1.1465, and 1.1530, respectively. Conversely, over the same period, the 1.1160 support level will remain a strong and real threat to the current upward trajectory. Overall, the rise in the Euro’s price against the US dollar is driven by US financial risks. Speculation about coordinated intervention in the currency market is also weighing in. Consequently, the EUR/USD exchange rate continues its ascent amid a renewed deterioration in demand for the US dollar.

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Platinum price resumed the bullish rally to achieve the suggested target, to achieve the suggested target by hitting $1083.00 facing the resistance of the bullish channel that appears in the above image.

Reminding you that stochastic stability within the overbought level might force the price to provide intraday sideways trading, and the continuation of the current resistance stability might force the price to retest the initial support at $940.00, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will open the way for achieving new gains, forming an initial target at $1100,00 level, reaching the recently achieved top at $1125.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1055.00 and $1083.00

Trend forecast: Sideways

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling struggles to clear resistance level after PMI data

GBP/USD retreats to the 1.3400 area in the European session on Thursday after ending the first three days of the week higher. The pair’s technical outlook highlights a loss of bullish momentum as market focus shifts to Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data releases from the US.

The data from the UK showed early Thursday that the economic activity in the private sector contracted at a softer pace in May than it did in April, with S&P Global Composite PMI recovering to 49.4 from 48.5. Read more…

GBP/USD bullish price action trade [Video]

In this forex trading video we cover the entry,exit reasons and management for our forex trade today on the GBP/USD and how you can trade the forex structure on daily, four, hourly, and 15 minute charts and how you can target the next support/resistance. In the last few videos we covered the steps to find and trade structure. In this video you will learn how we traded the GBP/USD structure today using the trading charts and price action. Read more…