• Gold price drifts lower to near $3,230 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
• The modest US Dollar recovery weighs on the yellow metal.
• Moody’s announced its downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1, which might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $3,230 during the early Asian session on Tuesday, pressured by a modest US Dollar (USD) rebound. However, the concerns over the US economic health after Moody’s downgrades the US national credit rating might cap its downside. 

The Greenback recovers on Tuesday, capping the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price. Nonetheless, the economic uncertainties could boost the safe-haven flows. Moody’s cut the US rating to “Aa1” from “Aaa” on Friday, citing rising debt and interest “that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns”. The economic uncertainties provide some support to the safe asset like Gold. 

“Overall, over the next few months, I think gold is a good safe bet considering the downgrade on the United States. It’s still to me a buy-and-hold market,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Financial markets were also shaken when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that US President Donald Trump would slap tariffs at the rate he threatened on April 2 if trade partners do not engage in “good faith.”

Next Lower Target at $3.07

Since the market seemed to recognize the 61.8% retracement zone, the next lower Fibonacci level at $3.07 seems destined to be tested as support before the bearish correction completes. And given the degree of bearish momentum exhibited in the wide range red candle for the day, the next uptrend line may also be tested as support before the bearish correction completes.

Beware of Another Step in Pattern Evolution

The scenario unfolding fits with the larger pattern discussed earlier. A breakdown from a head and shoulders top triggered on April 7 and it led to a sharp decline. Eventually support was found at what is now a swing low of $2.86. That support area was marked by the light blue anchored volume weighted average price line (AVWAP) from the 2024 trend lows. In other words, a potentially significant price level given that it incorporates the full uptrend.

So far, that has been the case. Given its potentially long-term significance, it would be the maximum estimated low for the current decline. The more likely scenario seems to be that support is found at or above the uptrend line and that leads to a bullish reversal. A higher swing low would then be established.

200-Day Moving Average Plays a Role

Not mentioned yet is the 200-Day MA. It is now at $3.19, and it failed to hold as support during Monday’s decline. That is fine if natural gas doesn’t stay below the 200-Day line for long. Notice that the 200-Day MA was breached during the prior drop that triggered the head and shoulders top pattern. The subsequent recovery quickly rallied above the 200-Day MA, and the bulls stayed in the chart until the recent trend high at $3.84.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Copper price began forming a negative move, activating with the negativity of the main indicators, to settle near the extra support at $4.5000, facing negative pressures will increase the chances for breaking the current support, to open the way towards targeting extra negative stations, which might begin at $4.4500 reaching $4.3100.

The failure to break the current support might push the price to form mixed trading, and there is a new chance for targeting 50%Fibonacci correction level near $4.6600.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.4500 and $4.5600

Trend forecast: Bearish

XAU/USD Current price: $3,232.75

• Moody downgraded the US’s government’s credit rating, hitting the US Dollar.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to cut interest rates early on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD retreated from near $3,250, holding on to modest intraday gains.

Gold price is up on Monday, with the bright metal peaking at $3,249.84 during Asian trading hours amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness. The Greenback fell throughout the first half of the day amid discouraging United States (US) news. Moody’s downgraded the US government’s credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to concerns about the country´s growing debt.

Asian shares tumbled, further weighed by mixed Chinese data. April Retail Sales were up 5.1% YoY in April, missing expectations, while Industrial Production in the same period was up 6.1%, better than the 5.5% anticipated, although below the previous 7.7%

The USD found some near-term demand after Wall Street’s opening, as US indexes partially shrugged off the downbeat mood and trade mixed. As a result, the XAU/USD pair retreated towards the current $3,230 price zone.

Several US Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers hit the wires at the beginning of the week, but their remarks failed to impress, holding on to their cautiously optimistic stance, still concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its decision on monetary policy in the upcoming Asian session. The RBA is widely anticipated to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% from the current 4.1%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it trades at the upper end of Friday’s range, with little bullish impulse. Technical indicators turned marginally higher, but remain within negative levels, while a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands well above the current level, providing resistance at around $3,293. The 100 and 200 SMAs keep advancing far below the current level, suggesting sellers are out of the picture at the time being.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral. The pair trades between directionless moving averages, with a flat 20 SMA providing intraday support at $3,204.70. At the same time, the Momentum indicator turned lower while holding above its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere at around 51.

Support levels: 3,215.90 3,204.70 3,187.10

Resistance levels: 3,250.00 3,265.80 3,288.70

In a shocking move that has defused a brutal trade war and boosted international markets, the United States and China decided on May 12, to significantly reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for the first 90 days.

This naturally sparked a continued downward spiral in gold and prices touched $3121 for XAUUSD. 

This week, gold is looking to retrace and take out the late sellers in the market. Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast of May 19th to May 23rd, 2025.

Previous week’s forecast recap of crypto.news

In the previous week’s forecast we gave the selling level of gold in 1h, from where gold dumped 1420 points. 

We also shared a major buying level of gold in the weekly FVG, from which gold is up 827 points, at the time of writing.

Now let’s start by discussing the key economic events of this week and their possible impact on the price of XAUUSD.

Key economic events of this week

Not many significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week, but it is still expected to impact XAUUSD. 

May 22nd, Thursday: Flash Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) and Flash Services PMI

Two early measures of economic health are the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI.  They have the following effects on the gold vs. US dollar (XAU/USD) pair:

• Strong PMIs (Manufacturing + Services): Show economic expansion, which boosts the US currency and usually results in lower gold prices (a decline in XAU/USD).

• Weak PMIs: Indicate a slowdown in the economy, which devalues the US dollar and raises the price of gold (XAU/USD).

In summary, while negative PMI data can push gold prices higher, positive data tends to push them lower.

Gold HTF Overview

Gold has already tested its weekly FVG and closed above it, which is a bullish sign for gold. The next targets according to the weekly timeframe can be $3260 and $3328.86 which signify the untested lows and highs of the previous weekly candles.

Gold Forecast for May 19th to May 23rd

Gold is showing bullish momentum in all lower time frames which makes buying an ideal position to enter and hold. 

On the 1 hour timeframe the strongest buying level is coming up at the bullish order block of $3129.85-3152.56.

On the 4h timeframe the buying opportunity is much lower around $3098-$3038. This is also the the last daily FVG of this entire bullish rally for which the low is $2956 which can be your invalidation point for buys and flipping towards sells on retracement, but that is far away for now.

In the 4 hour timeframe selling can be expected from the $3284-3325 levels, due to FVG, and structure area of the 4h timeframe.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

Below, we’ll take a look at support and resistance levels for XAUUSD this week.

Support Levels 

• $3098-$3038  – 4h support, daily FVG 
• $3129.85-3152.56 – 1h bullish order block

Resistance Levels 

• $3284-3325 levels – 4h FVG and structure level

To conclude, the safe strategy in gold is to look for sells in the lower time frame levels and look for buying in the higher time frame levels. You can mark these levels on your chart for easier trading guidance when you trade.

• The natural gas market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, as we have seen the 200 Day EMA offering support, but by the end of the day, we started to see a lot of negativity in the market then looks as if it is testing this 200 Day EMA as well.
• Because of this, we are sitting on significant technical support, but quite frankly I think it’s only a matter of time before we break down.

Keep in mind that the season for natural gas is typically more of a winter season, until you get to the very hottest parts of summer. This is because it is an American base contract more than anything else, and Americans tend to use natural gas to heat their homes, as well as produce extra electricity in order to run air conditioning.

While natural gas of course is important in other parts of the world, the Henry Hub contract is what most people trade, and therefore you have to be aware of what’s going on in America more than anything else.

As of late, we have seen the Europeans buying a lot of liquefied natural gas, which of course has a major influence on what we are seeing here. If we break down below the 200 Day EMA, the market is likely to go looking to the $3.00 level, which obviously has a certain amount of psychology attached to it as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Anything below there would be extraordinarily negative and could send the market down to the $2.40 level before it is all said and done.

Short-term rallies are likely, but those should end up being selling opportunities, as natural gas is going to be less in demand for the next couple of months, so I have no interest in buying this market, unless of course there is some type of external factor that drives up the price such as war, or some type of major disruption in supply for some other reason. I remain bearish, and probably will for a few months.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.