Major Currency Pairs Forecasts: this analysis focuses on four major currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF. Understanding the factors influencing these pairs can provide insights into potential future movements.

EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is the most traded currency pair globally, representing the economic relationship between the Eurozone and the United States. Several factors influence its movement:

Economic Indicators
The economic health of both the Eurozone and the U.S. plays a crucial role in determining the direction of this pair. Key indicators include GDP growth, employment figures, and inflation rates. Recent trends suggest that while the U.S. economy has shown resilience, the Eurozone faces challenges such as slower growth and inflationary pressures.

Central Bank Policies
The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) have differing monetary policies that significantly impact the EUR/USD exchange rate. If the Fed continues to adopt a hawkish stance while the ECB remains dovish, the U.S. dollar may strengthen against the euro. Conversely, any shift towards tighter monetary policy by the ECB could bolster the euro.

Market Sentiment
Market sentiment, influenced by geopolitical events and economic forecasts, can lead to volatility in the EUR/USD pair. Traders often react to news regarding trade relations, political stability, and economic forecasts, which can create short-term fluctuations.

USD/JPY Forecast

The USD/JPY pair is heavily influenced by interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan, as well as broader market sentiment.

Interest Rate Differentials
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained a low-interest-rate environment for an extended period, while the Fed has been more aggressive in adjusting rates. This divergence can lead to a stronger U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, particularly if the Fed signals further rate hikes.

Safe-Haven Demand
The Japanese yen is often viewed as a safe-haven currency. During times of global uncertainty or market volatility, demand for the yen may increase, leading to appreciation against the U.S. dollar. Conversely, if market sentiment improves, the yen may weaken as investors seek higher returns elsewhere.

Economic Data Releases
Key economic data from both the U.S. and Japan, such as employment reports and inflation data, can significantly impact the USD/JPY pair. Positive data from the U.S. may strengthen the dollar, while disappointing figures from Japan could lead to yen depreciation.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair, often referred to as “Cable,” is influenced by various factors, including economic performance, political developments, and market sentiment.

Economic Performance
The economic outlook for the United Kingdom is critical for the GBP/USD pair. Factors such as GDP growth, inflation, and employment rates can influence the strength of the British pound. Recent economic challenges, including those related to Brexit, have created uncertainty, which can lead to volatility in this pair.

Political Developments
Political events, particularly those related to Brexit negotiations and domestic policies, can have a profound impact on the GBP/USD exchange rate. Any signs of progress or setbacks in negotiations can lead to significant fluctuations in the pound’s value.

Market Sentiment
Market sentiment plays a crucial role in the GBP/USD pair’s movements. Traders often react to news regarding economic forecasts, political stability, and global market trends. A shift in sentiment can lead to rapid changes in the exchange rate.

USD/CHF Forecast

The USD/CHF pair represents the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc, another currency often viewed as a safe haven.

Economic Stability
Switzerland’s economic stability and strong financial system contribute to the Swiss franc’s appeal. In times of global uncertainty, the franc may appreciate against the U.S. dollar as traders seek refuge in stable currencies.

Central Bank Policies
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a cautious approach to monetary policy, often keeping interest rates low. If the Fed continues to raise rates, the U.S. dollar may strengthen against the franc. However, any unexpected moves by the SNB could lead to volatility in the USD/CHF pair.

Geopolitical Factors
Geopolitical events can significantly impact the USD/CHF exchange rate. Tensions in global markets or economic crises can lead to increased demand for the Swiss franc, resulting in appreciation against the dollar.

Conclusion

The major currency pairs—EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF—are influenced by a complex interplay of economic indicators, central bank policies, and market sentiment. As traders navigate this dynamic landscape, staying informed about economic developments and geopolitical events will be crucial for making informed decisions. Understanding these factors can provide valuable insights into potential future movements in these key currency pairs.

When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.

Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Moving after breaking the upward trend.
• Today’s Euro/Dollar Support Levels: 1.1130 – 1.1070 – 1.0980.
• Today’s Euro/Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1230 – 1.1300 -1.1380.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy the EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1020, target 1.1300, and stop 1.0940.
• Sell the EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1280, target 1.1000, and stop 1.1370.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

During yesterday’s trading session, bulls attempted a rebound in the EUR/USD currency pair, reaching the 1.1265 resistance level before quickly returning to stabilize around the 1.1170 level at the start of today’s Thursday session. The US dollar remains stronger against other major currencies amidst a recent easing of US-China and European trade tensions. The recent gains of the US dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1065 support level. Amid the performance of the most traded currency pair in the Forex market, trading experts believe that the Euro/Dollar will face difficulty in making further progress; they anticipate some stability around the 1.120 level in EUR/USD in the coming days. During the current quarter, they expect a range for EUR/USD between the 1.10 support level and the 1.15 resistance level.

Trading Tips:

Be cautious. The direction of the EUR/USD will remain subject to some volatility if US policies continue to threaten the future of global economic recovery.

Technical Levels for EUR/USD in the Coming Days:

According to trading across licensed currency trading company platforms and based on the daily timeframe chart performance, the EUR/USD pair is in a phase of breaking the overall upward trend, and breaking the 1.10 support will remain important for the strength of bear control over the direction. After the recent losses, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilized below the midline, preparing for a bearish shift. At the same time, the MACD indicator confirms the start of a downward move but has not yet reached the oversold stage.

Current EUR/USD trading will be on an important date with a package of European economic releases, led by the announcement of the Eurozone GDP growth reading, along with the industrial production rate and the change in employment for the bloc’s countries, all at 12:00 PM Egypt time. Then, during the more important US session, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) reading, US retail sales figures, and the number of weekly jobless claims will be announced, all at 3:30 PM Egypt time, followed minutes later by new statements from US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell.

Be careful; the reaction to these data results will affect the performance of the EUR/USD price and may shape the future weekly close of the currency pair. Technically, a bullish EUR/USD scenario requires stability above the 1.1370 resistance level once again. Overall, while declining trade tensions provide support for the US dollar in the near term, the risk of a rapid deterioration in incoming data remains. We emphasize that concerns about the outlook for stable US data are valid, and that asset allocation shifts away from US assets remain a headwind for the US dollar in the medium and long term. Commenting on currency exchange rates, German Bundesbank President Nagel noted: “The dollar is very important for the global financial system, and we still need a strong dollar

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May 15, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound GDP Boost Fades, Dollar Eyes Bonds

The Pound Sterling initially gained against the Euro and U.S. Dollar following the latest GDP data, but GBP was unable to make further headway with concerns that the data overstated the underlying performance.

Equity markets were also weaker which limited potential support, but the US Dollar remained fragile.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) failed to hold 1.3300 and retreated to 1.3285 with evidence of buying on dips.

The dollar overall has struggled to hold gains amid fresh concerns that the combination of huge supply of US bonds and the risk of fading global demand for Treasuries will trigger higher yields and a weaker dollar.

ING is positive on the short-term GBP/USD outlook; “With the dollar looking a bit vulnerable, GBP/USD looks biased to the 1.3360/3400 area short term.”

UK GDP grew 0.7% for the first quarter of the year after a 0.1% gain for the final three months of 2024 and compared with expectations of 0.6% growth.

According to the provisional data, the UK first-quarter performance was the strongest within the G7 area.

Budget concerns will ease slightly, although there are still important underlying stresses in meeting the government’s fiscal rules.

ING noted potential seasonal distortions in the data, but considers the outlook is broadly encouraging.

The bank added; “the UK outlook does look ‘ok’, even if first-quarter GDP probably heavily overstates the underlying pace of growth. Uncertainty surrounding global trade is a headwind, though the direct impact of tariffs on the UK looks negligible. Remember too that government spending is rising significantly this year and that will be a firm tailwind.”

Exports were also boosted by shipments ahead of US tariffs.

According to Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics; “Overall, the main reason why GDP was stronger than everyone expected appears to be because US and UK tax changes meant that more activity was pulled forward into Q1 from Q2 than everyone expected, rather than because the UK economy is fundamentally stronger.”

US developments are likely to be crucial later in the session.

Retail sales data will be released and there are also two important regional surveys with the New York and Philadelphia Fed data. There were sharp declines for April and the May data will be important for wider confidence in the US outlook.

US bond yields have also moved higher with markets fretting over the implications of huge budget deficits and the Republican tax bill.

The 10-year yield is above 4.50% with the 30-year yield near 5.00% and close to levels which triggered a U-turn on reciprocal tariffs in April.

Significantly, higher US yields have not supported the dollar.

Rabobank commented, “Perhaps we are about to find out whether it really was rising bond yields that forced the about-face on those reciprocal tariffs, or if Scott Bessent has some other rabbit to pull out of his hat to force long yields lower.”

MUFG noted the risk that bond-market fears would lead to Truss-style difficulties for the dollar.

Looking at the proposed legislation it added; “Much of the cost of this bill is merely to extend the status quo and other aspects could easily be crowded out by yields being higher than otherwise would be. That in our view means this development will not prove positive for the dollar.”

SocGen commented; “I’m sure that President Trump, with his desire to rebuild the global trade framework, is in favour of a less expensive dollar.

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• The euro initially did try to rally against the US dollar but really has struggled quite a bit during the trading session.
• Above the 1.12 level, the 1.12 level is an area that I had been talking about in the past.
• I think it does make a certain amount of sense that we continue to pay close attention to it due to the fact that when you look at the last couple of years, it’s been a major area of resistance.

We had a little bit of a throw over here in the last couple of weeks, but we also had one at the end of last year to the downside. So, the question is, are we re-entering this area yet again? It’s very possible. That’s exactly what happens. We’ll just have to wait and see. But I do think that you have to basically take this market as one that I think got a little overdone and therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that we pull back at the very least. That doesn’t necessarily mean that I am looking for a major meltdown, but I do think that a return to the 50-day EMA near the lows of the past couple of trading sessions is very viable.

On Further Selling

And then if we break down below there, we could be looking at the 1.0950 level, an obvious area of both support and resistance over the longer term. To the upside, if we do take out the 1.13 level, then we could start looking at the 1.15 level again, an area that has a certain amount of importance from both psychology and the longer term charge.

All things being equal with the interest rates in America climbing the way they did, it makes perfect sense that the US dollar continues to attract inflows.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The GBPJPY pair activated the bearish correctional track, due to its reach below 194.60 level, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought level, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching 193.90.

Depending on the key support extension on 193.35 level, to increase the chances for activating the bullish track, to step above 194.60 then targeting 195.70 level, while breaking the support will force it suffer extra losses that might extend to 192.65 reaching to the moving average 55.

The expected trading range for today is between 193.35 and 195.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair is affected by the negative pressures, due to its repeated stability below the resistance at 164.90, forming several bearish waves, approaching from the initial support at 163.35 level.

The suggested scenario depends on the stability of the current support, to expect activating the bullish track, which might target 164.20 and 164.90 level gradually, while breaking the support and holding below it will increase the chances for resuming the decline, and 162.40 level represents the next target of the bearish track.

The expected trading range for today is between 163.30 and 164.90

Trend forecast: Bullish