Platinum price succeeded to confirm surpassing the barrier at $983.00, activating the suggested bullish rally, to achieve the initial target by reaching $1002.00, the stability of the price above the breached barrier is required for taking advantage of the main indicators positivity, to attempt to record new gains by its rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $1017.00.

The price decline below $983.00 and providing negative close will cancel the bullish suggestion, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $990.00 and $1017.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price succeeded to confirm surpassing the barrier at $983.00, activating the suggested bullish rally, to achieve the initial target by reaching $1002.00, the stability of the price above the breached barrier is required for taking advantage of the main indicators positivity, to attempt to record new gains by its rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $1017.00.

The price decline below $983.00 and providing negative close will cancel the bullish suggestion, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $990.00 and $1017.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• The Euro has initially fallen against the US dollar only to turn around and rally against the US dollar before running into trouble with the 1.13 level.
• This has been one of those sessions where pretty much everybody had a chance to lose money as day traders get chopped up.

As far as a longer term move is concerned, I’d be watching the 1.12 level more than anything else because I think that’s the most important level on the chart, at least in the short term. Breaking down below that level could kick off something somewhat negative. And it looks to me like the Euro is trying to do exactly that. On the other hand, though, if we do break above the 1.13 level, we could then test on 1.14 level followed by the 1.15 level.

Topping Pattern Here?

All things being equal, this is a market that when you look at longer term charts, you can see what I see and that is a potential topping pattern. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the market needs to fall significantly. It just means that a pullback is probably more likely than not. We’ll have to wait and see how things play out, but if there is some type of progress made over the weekend with the Chinese, the US dollar probably gets inflows, we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out.

Nonetheless, this is a market that had been overdone, so this pullback made a certain amount of sense. Now, I’ll be watching the 1.12 level to see if that pullback becomes something a little bigger. On the other hand, if we do break above that 1.13 level, then I think we will just continue the same choppy sideways noisy consolidation while we wait to see if there’s any reason whatsoever to push the Euro above the 1.15 level.

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May 11, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: 1.45 if USD Reverts to Historic Mean

RBC Capital Markets (RBC) expects a tentative Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) gain to 1.39 by the second quarter of 2026 as the dollar loses ground.

If the dollar reverts to historic mean levels, Westpac notes that GBP/USD could reach 1.45.

Standard Chartered, however, expects a GBP/USD retreat to at least 1.30.

GBP/USD dipped to near 1.32 on Thursday amid a dollar recovery before a recovery to just above 1.33.

The UK signed a trade deal with the US with lower tariffs on steel and car exports to the US, although the baseline 10% tariffs were maintained.

The deal increased market hopes that the US Administration would adopt a more conciliatory stance towards trade tariffs.

In this context, the dollar secured a further net recovery amid a reduction in the risk premium with little net Pound benefit.

Looking at the UK implications, HSBC commented; “The trade deal does mean the UK avoids the worst of some of the US’s tariff hikes, but most UK goods still face the 10% tariff introduced by President Trump on 2 April. This is much more than the average tariff of 2.2% previously.”

Standard Chartered commented; “market optimism is likely to be short-lived since the UK parliament needs to approve and finalise the trade deal.”

There will be an important focus on China with some dialogue due over the weekend, but a lot of work to be done to make any progress.

MUFG commented; “A reduction for China even to 60% and others at a rate in between that and the 10% floor for all other countries is still more like worst case scenarios prior to 2nd April.”

It added; “Trump’s words yesterday may have indicated we are moving to a better place for global and US growth but his words also suggested trade uncertainty would remain high. That means, in our view, that there will be limits to this US dollar recovery with damage to the US economy likely to become more evident in US economic data.”

According to RBC Capital Markets the dollar will remain vulnerable; “Lingering trade uncertainty leaves the economic outlook still unknown, but it is clear asset markets price US assets with higher risk premia, higher volatility and higher uncertainty. So long as that stigma remains, we think USD selling through FX hedging or asset reallocation will remain the overall trend.”

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.50%, in line with consensus forecasts. According to Chair Powell, the impact of tariffs will be greater than expected and there is likely to be upward pressure on both inflation and unemployment.

Higher unemployment would increase pressure for a cut in rates, but higher inflation would act in the opposite direction.

Given these potential tensions, Powell reiterated that the bank needed to be patient and wait for the data to signal the appropriate policy.

Markets cut the potential for a June rate cut to around 20% from near 60% previously.

The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% which was in line with strong market expectations.

There was a 3-way vote split with Taylor and Dhingra voting for a larger 50 basis-point cut while Mann and chief economist Pill voted against cutting rates.

The bank maintained its guidance that interest rates should be careful and cautious given persistent inflation pressures.

HSBC is not backing another rate cut at the June meeting; “If all of the information is pointing in the same (dovish) direction, then it’s possible that the BoE will seek to speed up the pace of easing. But base case has to be for the next cut to come in August.”

Standard Chartered is more bearish; “we expect the Bank of England to cut rates more than other Developed Market central banks in the coming months as UK growth and inflation weaken due to global trade uncertainty.”

Westpac expects that GBP/USD will settled around 1.32 in June and rally to 1.36 by late 2026.

The bank added; “It is worth emphasising that there is clear upside risk to these forecasts if investors recoil from the US because of open-ended political and/or fiscal uncertainty. For Sterling, a full reset back to the 20-year average for DXY would equate to around 1.45.”

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May 11, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: 1.17 by 2026, 1.24 by 2027 say RBC

RBC Capital Markets (RBC) forecasts that the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) will strengthen to 1.17 at the end of this year with a further gain to 1.24 at the end of next year.

EUR/USD dipped to test 1.12 late in the week before a recovery to around 1.1265.

ING noted the importance of 1.12; “a break lower would signal a marked shift in sentiment on the pair and potentially pave the way for larger corrections, with 1.100 being the next big support.”

RBC sees three potential Euro supportive factors. An end to US exceptionalism would underpin the Euro, especially once the Fed does lower rates.

It also sees scope for increased capital flows to the Euro area with a Euro-Zone fiscal stimulus also supportive.

RBC commented; “We have revised up our end-2026 target for EUR/USD in line with a reassessment for allocation to US vs EZ assets.”

It added; “It is very hard calling the timing but we suspect we won’t see EUR/USD trade past 1.20 until the Fed is really able to narrow the s/t rate gap in 2026.”

The US-UK trade deal sparked optimism of a more conciliatory stance by the US Administration which underpinned the dollar.

UBS expects limited benefit; “We continue to view positive trade headlines as supportive for the USD. However, as we expect any dollar strength to be short-lived and anticipate the currency to weaken over the remainder of the year, we favor selling the USD during rallies—specifically below EURUSD 1.12.”

According to ING; “This is still a far cry from the “pragmatic” version of Trump that markets were pricing in as the baseline on Inauguration Day, but it’s enough to prevent growth and debt-related bearish bets on the dollar from mounting.”

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.50% at the latest policy meeting, in line with consensus forecasts. According to Chair Powell, the impact of tariffs will be greater than expected and there is likely to be upward pressure on both inflation and unemployment.

Higher unemployment would increase pressure for a cut in rates, but elevated inflation would act in the opposite direction.

Given these potential tensions, Powell reiterated that the bank needed to be patient and wait for the data to signal the appropriate policy.

Markets cut the potential for a June rate cut to around 20% from near 60% previously.

ING commented; “This week, the Fed sounded anything but dovish. Still, there’s a risk that Chair Jerome Powell’s current stance is overly cautious given high uncertainty on tariffs – perhaps to reaffirm the Fed’s independence in the face of Trump’s easing calls.”

According to Danske Bank; “we still think risks are skewed towards downside surprises as front-loaded demand fades and goods supply shortages become increasingly common – especially if reaching an agreement on reducing China-tariffs takes longer than expected.”

It added; “We expect to see majority of the tariff-driven growth slowdown over the course of H2. So even if the Fed opts to remain on hold also in June, we remain confident in our call for three cuts in total for the rest of 2025.”

Westpac expects yields will remain dollar supportive; “We see the next Fed rate cut in September, meaning US rates will stay high compared to peers, including the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE), which have room to ease.”

Investment banks continued to debate the underlying dollar outlook.

According to Credit Agricole; “We doubt that the role of the USD as the world’s main reserve currency can be challenged any time soon given the lack of credible alternatives.”

It added; “Moreover, even if we were to see the emergences of global trade blocs using their own reserve currencies, the outcome could still favour the USD over the likes of the EUR.”

ING noted underlying uncertainty; “There are reasonable doubts about markets’ readiness to rebuild strategic dollar positions just yet, and time might be needed to reinstall market confidence in the dollar as a safe-haven asset.”

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May 11, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Week Ahead Forecast: 1.182 Today, 1.2 by 2026

Foreign exchange analysts at Credit Agricole consider the Pound Sterling to be still undervalued and expect the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) to gain to 1.2050 at the end of this year.

RBC Capital Markets (RBC), however, forecasts that the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate will decline to 1.1630 at the end of this year with a further slide to 1.11 at the end of next year amid net capital inflows into the Euro area.

GBP/EUR secured a net gain to 5-week highs at 1.1820 during the week before settling around 1.18 amid positive UK trade developments and a relatively hawkish Bank of England (BoE) policy decision.

The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% which was in line with strong market expectations.

There was a 3-way vote split with Taylor and Dhingra voting for a larger 50 basis-point cut while Mann and chief economist Pill voted against cutting rates.

The bank maintained its guidance that interest rates should be careful and cautious given persistent inflation pressures.

According to Rabobank; “Our baseline scenario remains unchanged since last summer: the MPC cuts rates quarterly, focusing on meetings with an MPR, and aims to close out 2025 with a policy rate of 3.75%.”

It added; “That said, we do agree with the market’s view prior to today’s meeting that the risk of a more aggressive pace has risen. But for that to materialize, April’s CPI print (out on May 21) must soothe rather than reignite fears of inflation’s persistence.”

Danske Bank noted positive yield spreads, but added; “More broadly, while we see domestic factors as GBP positives, we think the global investment environment will be in the driver’s seat for EUR/GBP in the coming months. An investment environment characterised by elevated uncertainty, widening credit spreads and a positive correlation to a USD negative environment, in our view, favours a weaker GBP.”

The UK also reached a trade deal with the US with a reduction in tariffs on steel to zero while the tariff on cars will be cut to 10%.

The overall baseline tariff will, however, remain at 10%.

In return, the US will gain improved access to the UK market, especially in agriculture.

The UK and EU will hold a summit on May 19th.

ING commented; “The deal had already been largely priced in, and the implications for the UK economy are not significant. That said, the UK has now signed two trade deals in quick succession (with India and the US), and that is keeping markets hopeful on trade talks with the EU – which would have much more meaningful implications for the UK, and can lend a hand to troubled British finances.”

Credit Agricole noted some positives; “It should be also mentioned that the BoE outlook for the economy could improve from here, given that the MPC has not pencilled in the impact from the trade deal between the US and UK.”

The bank still sees scope for Pound gains; “markets will focus on BoE speeches as they gauge the magnitude of the bank’s easing bias in the wake of the May policy meeting. Absent any significant data disappointments or dovish surprises, the still undervalued GBP could outperform the EUR.”

RBC is still concerned over UK fundamentals; “its net international investment position is negative not positive. That means while EUR and JPY benefit from a Fed cutting cycle, GBP should lag, leading EUR/GBP higher in 2026.”

The bank added; “The 2022 Truss episode has done lasting damage in that even under pretty extreme global conditions, gilt investors, and by extension the UK govt, see limited room for the govt to offer much fiscal support.”

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