The EURJPY pair didn’t move anything since yesterday, fluctuating again below the barrier at 163.25, confirming the stability of the suggested negative scenario, gathering the negative momentum is important to ease the mission of pressing on the moving average 55, as its stability near 161.45 represents an obstacle against the negative attack.
Reminding you that the price success to reach below the moving average 55 and holding below it will ease the mission of targeting the negative stations, which might begin at 160.85 and 160.20.
The expected trading range for today is between 161.45 and 163.00
Trend forecast: Bearish
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Gold price challenges $3,400 again as US trade talks grab attention.
The US Dollar returns to the red after the Fed raises concerns over economic uncertainty.
Gold price yearns for acceptance above $3,435 for a sustained upside.
The gold price is back on the bids early Thursday, challenging the $3,400 mark amid renewed weakness in the US dollar and a revival of safe-haven demand.
Gold price looks north amid trade and geopolitical risks
Markets remain broadly upbeat due to China’s cut in the Reverse Repo Rate and in anticipation of US President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of a major trade deal. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the New York Times cited that Trump is likely to announce a framework of a trade deal with the UK later in the American morning on Thursday.
However, the optimism fails to lift the sentiment around the US Dollar (USD) as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) voiced its concerns over the heightened economic uncertainties in the face of Trump’s erratic trade policies.
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% on Wednesday, maintaining a cautious stance on the policy outlook. The Fed’s policy statement read that risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen, further clouding the US economic outlook.
During the press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that “it isn’t clear whether the economy will continue its steady growth or wilt under mounting uncertainty and a possible spike in inflation,” according to Reuters.
Further, Gold price continues to derive support from safe-haven inflows, courtesy of the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s air force reported that Russian aircraft had launched guided bombs on the Sumy region of northern Ukraine in the early hours of Thursday morning. This occurred just a few hours after a three-day ceasefire declared by Russian President Vladimir Putin took effect.
Meanwhile, Oman said on Wednesday that it brokered a truce between Washington and Houthis, saying neither side will target the other. However, Houthi leaders have insisted on social media that they have no intention of ceasing their attacks.
In the Asian sub-continent, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowed response after the Indian armed forces early Wednesday carried out missile attacks on nine terror targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), Heavy exchanges of artillery fire have been reported along the Line of Control (LoC) dividing Indian- and PoK, according several media outlets.
Amidst heightened trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks, Gold price is likely to remain the go-to safety net for investors. They keenly await the US-Sino trade talks from May 9 to May 12 in Geneva, especially after US President Trump said Wednesday that there is no potential for pulling back 145% tariffs on China.
Any retracement in Gold price due to optimism over potential US trade deals will remain a good dip-buying opportunity as policymakers globally grapple with the impact of Trump’s tariffs. The daily technical setup also remains favourable for Gold buyers in the near term.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price is poised to retake the channel support (now resistance) after finding buyers once again near $3,360.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears bullish, as it remains above the midline near 62, suggesting that further upside remains in the offing.
Gold price must establish a firm foothold above the two-week high of $3,435 for a sustained upside momentum. The next topside target is at the record high of $3,500.
Further up, the channel support (now resistance) at $3,525 will be on buyers’ radars.
On the downside, the $3,360 is the initial support line, below which the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,301 will be tested. Deeper declines will challenge the May 2 low of $3,223.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
The rally from the April swing low at $2.86 faced a potentially significant resistance zone around Monday’s high at $3.66. There is a range marked by several indicators from $3.72 to $3.74. However, the 50-Day MA has been falling and is now at $3.76, close enough to the initial range to be included. It also offers more useful price levels. The next major hurdle for the bull trend is a daily close above the 50-Day line. Until that happens the expectation is for resistance to continue to be seen up to the 50-Day MA.
Several Indicators Mark Resistance Zone
There is the confluence of several indicators identifying the resistance zone. The range begins with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.72. There is then the neckline for a recent head and shoulders topping pattern at $3.74. That price level was confirmed twice as swing lows of the pattern formed in March. Therefore, the neckline has some significance even before the head and shoulders formation is incorporated into the analysis. But there is also an AVWAP level around $3.74. It is anchored on the recent peak.
May Respond to Rise Above $3.76
Since there a several price levels identified close together, an upside breakout through the top of the range would be bullish of course, but more so given the significance of the resistance zone. Furthermore, if it occurred prior to a deeper pullback below $3.42, the bullish implications would strengthen further.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
GBP/USD pauses rally as traders eye Fed, BoE’s decisions
The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreated after posting back-to-back days of gains versus the US Dollar (USD). Still, positive news related to a possible de-escalation of the China-US tensions lent a lifeline to the Greenback, which remains firm in early trading. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3360, virtually unchanged.Read More…
Pound Sterling trades cautiously against USD, Fed-BoE policy decision looms large
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades cautiously to near 1.3370 against the US Dollar (USD) during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair faces slight pressure, while the USD consolidates ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT, in which the central bank is almost certain to keep interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25-4.50%. Read More…
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Slides to mid-1.3300s amid some USD buying ahead of Fed decision
The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday and erodes a part of its weekly gains registered over the past two days, to the 1.3400 mark. The intraday slide is sponsored by a modest US Dollar (USD) strength and drags spot prices below mid-1.3300s in the last hour. Read More…
Goldman Sachs on Wednesday hiked its quarterly copper price forecast, citing de-escalation in trade tensions and resilient Chinese copper demand that will likely continue to support prices in the coming months.
“We upgrade our 2Q/3Q price forecast to $9,330/$9,150/t from $8,620/$8,370 previously,” the bank said in a note.
High U.S. copper imports are expected to draw down stocks outside the U.S. for the remainder of the second quarter, tightening the London Metal Exchange’s forward spreads and discouraging new speculative short positions, the bank said.
Goldman Sachs said China’s copper demand has stayed firm in 2025, mostly because of strong exports. As exports start to weaken, the bank expects demand to stay solid in the second quarter, but slow down in the third.
The bank’s baseline forecast is for a significant slowdown in global copper demand in the second half of the year, with an imminent decision on U.S. Section 232 tariffs.
Using the 232 provision, U.S. President Donald Trump in February ordered a probe into possible tariffs on copper imports to rebuild U.S. production of the metal.
However, if the decision is delayed to late 2025, it could keep copper trade flows disrupted and cause a supply crunch outside the U.S. in the second half, especially in China, the bank said.
In the longer term, the bank says the copper market will move into a supply deficit in 2026, driven by strong demand from electrification-related sectors and limited growth in mining.
This should push prices from an expected low of $9,000 a ton in October 2025 to more than $10,500 a ton by the end of 2026, it added.
Benchmark three-month copper HG1! on the LME was trading at $9,438 a metric ton at 1347 GMT, after hitting $9,582, its highest since April 3, in early Asian trading hours.
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate spiked to 1-month highs at 1.1815 after the initial failure before a retreat to just below 1.1750 as markets also focus on the Bank of England policy decision.
German CDU leader Merz failed to be elected as Chancellor in the first Bundestag vote on Tuesday, but did secure a win in the second ballot.
According to ING; “We think EUR/GBP may stabilise around 0.850 for now (1.1765 for GBP/EUR) as a well-telegraphed BoE cut should not trigger major moves.”
CitiGroup, however, expects GBP/EUR losses; “Current levels offer good risk/reward for EURGBP longs, where technicals look bullish and the pair has lagged relative ECB-BoE pricing.”
It sees scope for GBP/EUR losses towards 1.1500.
The German coalition was able to amend procedures and Merz was confirmed in a second ballot with 325 votes, above the threshold of 316.
The vote provided initial Euro relief, but there are concerns that the initial rejection is an indicator of wider difficulties
According to ING, events; “are a painful reminder that it will be hard for the incoming government to fulfil the high expectations regarding investments and reforms. It seems that not everyone in the coalition parties has fully understood the sense of urgency towards the necessity of a functioning government.
It added; “Friedrich Merz and his government now face the monumental challenge of restoring economic strength while keeping everyone in their own parties aligned.”
Commerzbank also expressed concerns; “scepticism is appropriate with regard to the large fiscal package that the new government is planning and therefore also with regard to the euro.”
As far as the UK is concerned, trade remains a key influence.
ING noted that a UK-India trade deal was announced on Tuesday and there is speculation that a US-UK deal could be reached this week.
According to the bank; “It’s unclear whether London will be able to negotiate away the 10% baseline US tariffs, but it might be able to secure reductions in the 25% tariff rate on the car and steel sectors.”
ING also notes the importance of UK-EU relations; “Additionally, we’re still focusing on the 19 May UK-EU summit – the first since Brexit. Warming relations with the EU typically sees sterling rally.”
The Pound has been hampered by expectations of a dovish Bank of England (BoE) policy statement on Thursday.
A 25 basis-point rate cut has been fully priced in, but there is the potential for dovish elements with the US tariffs a key factor for the BoE.
Commerzbank commented; “The BoE may lower its growth and inflation forecasts, while at the same time, as in February, there might be two dissenting votes for a larger move.”
BoE forecasts and guidance will be a key element.
Commerzbank added; “If the BoE does indeed remove the reference to gradual rate cuts from its statement, this would increase the scope for faster (and larger) rate cuts than previously expected – taking away one of the pound’s few remaining supporting arguments.”
According to Citi; “GBP remains vulnerable to a pullback in equities, UK fiscal developments, spillovers from US term-premium concerns, and a dovish pivot from the BoE. While this week’s meeting is unlikely to offer that pivot, Citi Economics maintains the BoE will have to accelerate the pace of cuts in 2H25.”
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US-China initial trade talks set to begin next Wednesday, according to Sec Bessent.
The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold.
XAU/USD consolidates below $3,400 as market players await the Fed’s decision.
Gold consolidates just ahead of the $3,400 mark on Wednesday, unchanged on a daily basis as investors await the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold, as uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s tariffs weighs on US policymakers.
The US Dollar (USD) has been confined to familiar levels throughout the day, as investors assess different news. On the one hand, headlines indicated that the US and Chinese trade teams will meet in the upcoming days to de-escalate tensions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipated initial talks would begin on Saturday, clarifying that those would not be advanced discussions.
On the other hand, stocks trade with a sour tone amid big losses in the tech sector, adding to the market’s caution.
With no action expected from the Federal Reserve (Fed), the focus will be on the following press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell is expected to face questions on the central bank’s independence and his relationship with President Trump, beyond those related to the future of monetary policy.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it managed to post a higher high for the week before retreating. The risk remains skewed to the upside, although another corrective leg lower remains in the picture. In the mentioned chart, the bright metal keeps developing well above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $3,297.20, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the shorter one. However, technical indicators head south, holding within positive levels but suggesting buyers have paused.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bullish stance. The pair trades well above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA advancing above an also bullish 100 SMA. Additionally, technical indicators consolidate within positive levels, with the Momentum indicator heading marginally lower, not enough to confirm an upcoming slide.
The Pound to dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has again found support below 1.3300 and advanced to 1.3365 in early US trading on Wednesday.
The dollar index (DXY) traded around 99.45.
ING expects the dollar will continue to struggle while it expects that markets are too aggressive over near-term Bank of England rate-cut prospects.
It added; “We therefore have a bias that GBP/USD trades back to the 1.3445 high over the next couple of days.”
UoB sees a 1.3240 – 1.3450 range in the short term.
The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision after Wednesday’s close.
There are very strong expectations that rates will be held at 4.50% as the central bank remains in wait and see mode.
Deutsche Bank commented; “We expect the Fed to keep rates steady and avoid explicit forward guidance about the policy path ahead. The overall tone of the meeting is likely to echo comments from Chair Powell and his colleagues in recent weeks. In particular, the administration’s policies are likely to push the economy away from the Fed’s dual mandate objectives for a period of time but that monetary policy is “well positioned” to respond to the evolving outlook.”
According to Barclays; “We expect Powell to signal the FOMC is in no rush to cut rates. Our baseline call has two 25bp cuts this year, in July and September.
Dollar sentiment remains fragile. According to IG analyst Tony Sycamore; “I don’t think the theme of U.S. dollar weakness is going to change. There’s also a lot of uncertainty from offshore investors as to whether they want to be overexposed or overweight U.S. equities.”
According to ING; “DXY stalled last week exactly where it should have if we are seeing a weak bear market correction.”
Scotiabank notes the number of rate cuts priced in; “Markets are still pricing several cuts into year-end and could be vulnerable to adjustment if Chair Powell leaned toward a brighter outlook.”
ING admitted the risk of stop-loss dollar buying, but added; “Price action has been poor and a drift back to 99.25 in quiet markets will confirm that the dollar is struggling to shake the risk premium associated with uncertain US policymaking.”
Credit Agricole is more positive on the dollar; “The latest divergence between the USD and US rates therefore signals to us that the currency is looking very cheap and should recover, especially if the Fed fails to live up to the still dovish market expectations on Wednesday.”
The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its latest policy decision on Thursday. There are very strong expectations that there will be a 25 basis-point cut to 4.25%.
According to SocGen; “Key data undershooting expectations and tariff risks tilting towards lower growth and inflation make it an easy decision for the MPC.”
Bank of America commented; “Lower inflation and growth forecasts can open the door for faster cuts in the second half of the year. Still, we think the BoE will retain its careful, gradual and meeting-by-meeting guidance while reiterating the need for policy to remain restrictive, in the midst of uncertainty.
It added; “Having said that risks of a dovish pivot in May cannot be ruled out, especially if inflation forecast downgrades are bigger than we expect, opening the door for faster cuts already.
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The GBPJPY pair provided new negative trading, attempting to break the support of the sideways triangle at 190.85 level, but it bounced again towards 191.10, keeping its stability below the moving average 55.
While providing negative momentum by stochastic approach from 20 level makes us wait for confirming breaking the current support, which allows it to activate the negative attack, which might target 189.90 level reaching the next target at 189.20.
The expected trading range for today is between 189.90 and 191.50
Trend forecast: Bearish
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Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1255 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1160.
Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1440 with a target of 1.1200 and a stop-loss at 1.1520.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Since the beginning of the week’s trading, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been stable and receiving support for stability around the 1.1300 level, ahead of today’s US central bank announcement, the most important for the markets this week, with the announcement at 9:00 PM Egypt time. This will be followed half an hour later by important statements from US central bank governor Jerome Powell. The EUR/USD price is currently stable around the 1.1367 level, and it has been recently observed that rallies have been met with selling interest. A reason for the euro’s recent failure to rise was the failure of Merz, the leader of the German Christian Democratic Union, to win a vote in the Bundestag that would have approved him as chancellor. Another vote may be held in the short term.
According to reliable trading company platforms, the EUR/USD pair is still trading above levels justified by interest rates alone, and the main question is whether the dollar discount is justified. In general, US data, tariff developments, and Asian currency market dynamics will remain crucial in the short term.
Recently, prominent US data has not indicated any significant deterioration in the economy at this stage, but the data is still lagging, and indicators such as freight transport suggest the potential for significant pressures on the horizon. Technically, the 1.130 level will remain the pivot point for the EUR/USD pair – and a decisive break below it could lead to a break of the 1.120 support level soon.
According to some Forex market experts, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade within its medium range of 1.12/upper 1.15 since early April. They are looking for near-term support below 1.13 and resistance above 1.14.
Trading Tips:
The EUR/USD will remain in a narrow range, and you will not find strong movement except after investors and markets react to today’s US central bank announcement.
According to the performance on the daily timeframe chart, the movement of technical indicators is in a neutral position awaiting further developments. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the middle, between the overbought zone and the midline, indicating that bulls and bears are in a waiting position until factors supporting one of the directions emerge, although an upward movement is more likely. The 1.1400 resistance will remain an important catalyst for the bulls. At the same time, the MACD indicator is slightly leaning downwards.
EUR/USD trading will remain within its current range until the markets react to the US central bank’s announcement and Governor Jerome Powell’s statements, especially after Trump’s recent intervention in the bank’s policy directions and the threat to dismiss the governor, followed by a recent reversal of that stance. In addition to this, any developments on the ground regarding the US tariff war against global economies, including the Eurozone, will have the strongest impact on financial markets in general and on the performance of the EUR/USD currency pair in particular.
