GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling stays dangerously close to key support level

GBP/USD lost 0.3% last week and snapped a three-week winning streak. The pair enters a consolidation phase on Monday and trades below 1.3300.

GBP/USD closed virtually unchanged on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) struggled to gather strength following the April labor market data from the US. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 177,000 in April. Read more…

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook: Pound Sterling awaits Fed-BoE policy decisions for fresh impetus

King Dollar regained its throne, booking the third weekly gain, due to receding tariff war fears and optimism emerging from potential trade deals between the United States (US) and its major Asian trading partners.

US President Donald Trump and some of his colleagues stuck to their rhetoric that trade negotiations continued with China even though Beijing dismissed such talks. Trump said during the week that he has “potential” trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan and that there is a very good chance of reaching an agreement with China. Read more…

• The USD/JPY outlook shows a stronger yen at the start of the week.

• The BoJ faces high food inflation, strong wage growth, and the possibility of a weak yen.

• US employers added 177,000 new workers, beating estimates of 138,000.

The USD/JPY outlook shows a stronger yen at the start of the week, as market participants maintain hopes for further BoJ tightening. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against the yen briefly on Friday after an upbeat US employment report. 

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The yen collapsed Thursday after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged. Furthermore, the central bank downgraded its outlook for growth and inflation due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Governor Ueda noted that Trump’s trade policies had created a lot of uncertainty. Experts took this to mean the policymakers would delay rate hikes. As a result, rate hike expectations dropped. 

However, Japan’s currency rebounded on Friday after the impact of the policy meeting faded. The BoJ has to face high food inflation, strong wage growth, and the chances of a weak yen. Therefore, hopes are still alive that policymakers will boost interest rates.

Meanwhile, the greenback got a brief boost from data showing a resilient labor market. The economy added 177,000 new workers, beating estimates of 138,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. After the report, market participants priced a 35% chance of a June Fed rate cut, down from 58%. 

However, due to Trump’s tariffs, analysts expect employment to deteriorate in the coming months. 

USD/JPY key events today

USD/JPY technical outlook: Brief retreat meets solid support zone

On the technical side, bulls have found their footing above the 30-SMA. The trend recently reversed when bears failed to go below the 140.01 support level. The price broke above it resistance trendline and pulled back for a retest. After that, it made a higher high, confirming the new uptrend. 

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However, after a new high, the price has returned to retest the recently broken 144.02 key level. At the same time, it is trading nearer the 30-SMA, which is another support level. Still, the price is above the SMA and the RSI is slightly over 50, suggesting a bullish bias. 

Therefore, bulls might return at this support zone to seek new highs. A bounce higher will likely target the 148.01 resistance level. The trend will only change when the price breaks and stays below the SMA.

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The EURJPY pair is forced to form a bearish correctional rebound this morning, affected by the stability of the resistance at 164.80, suffering clear losses by its approach from the initial support at 163.25 level.

Providing positive momentum by stochastic might increase the efficiency of the negative track in the current period, to expect reaching below the initial support and begin targeting several negative stations by reaching 162.45 and 161.90, while the price rally above the mentioned resistance will reinforce the chances for regaining the bullish bias, to expect targeting 165.25 level, reaching the next target at 166.40.

The expected trading range for today is between 162.45 and 164.10

Trend forecast: Bearish

No change on Copper price’s temporary sideways trading, due to its confinement between the extra barrier at $4.6600, while the moving average 55 keeps forming a new support by its fluctuation near $4.5400, and stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum might assist delaying the negative trading in the current trading, to increase the chances for compensating the previous losses, by its rally above the current barrier and targeting 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $4.8200.

Reaching below the support and providing a negative close will support the continuation of the suggested negativity, reminding you that the negative stations stability near $4.4500 and $4.3100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5300 and $4.6600

Trend forecast: Sideways

• The euro initially did try to rally a bit during the course of the trading session on Friday, but it looks as if the area near the 165 yen level could continue to be a bit of a barrier.
• That area is of course an area that has been important multiple times in the past. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.

We had the massive candlestick during the previous session that came into the picture to offer a lot of upward momentum. And then the pullback on Friday, which shows that we are not simply going to rip through the 165 yen level by breaking above there. Then we could go looking to the 166.50 level and therefore the swing high back in November. Short-term pullbacks from here make a certain amount of sense. And I think they offer buying opportunities because quite frankly, we are starting to see the Japanese yen suffer.

There is Support Below

In general, the 200 day EMA sits around the 162 yen level with the 50 day EMA sitting just underneath there. The 50 day EMA looks as if it is going to try to cross above there. And if it does, that is the so called golden cross, which a lot of traders look for a bit of inspiration to the upside. It’s a late indicator typically, but what I have found is that the Golden Cross tends to do much better than the opposite, the negative version of this called the Death Cross. We are going sideways. We are getting ready to try to break to the upside. And now the question is, will we have to pull back towards the movie and averages or will we clear 165 yen and then just simply rip to the upside.

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