A weekly closing price above $3.61 will leave natural gas poised to rise into the next higher potential resistance zone. It is marked by the confluence of several indicators from $3.72 to $3.80. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target is at $3.72 and is followed by the neckline of a head and shoulders top formation at $3.73. There is an AVWAP level from the trend high $3.75 and further up is the 50-Day MA at $3.80. Given the potential significance of the 50-Day line, it marks the highest potential target for the current advance. But if it exceeded to the upside, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.95 becomes a higher target.
Demand Improving
Natural gas is showing improving demand given the three-week breakout that triggered today and the likely strong weekly closing price, near the highs of the week. A one-week bullish reversal triggered earlier this week, and a strong weekly closing price would show buyers remained in charge heading into the weekend.
That strength could carry over into next week. Since the recent low of $2.86 established a higher swing low and it occurred at a recognized potential support area, the recent bearish correction should be complete, leaving natural gas in a position to further progress its long-term uptrend. Therefore, surprises may be on the upside rather than the downside.
Head and Shoulders Top Resistance Zone
Of course, natural gas is rising into a large potential resistance zone highlighted by the head and shoulders topping pattern. But it also advancing from a higher swing low near the lower end of a large rising parallel trend channel. The recent swing low established a higher slope for the trend, marked by a rising dashed line. A reversal from the lows of the channel suggests the possibility of an eventual advance to the top channel line.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.
And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500
Trend forecast: Bearish
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The British Pound has fallen after initially trying to rally on Thursday against the US dollar in a remembrance of the overall range that we have been in.
Quite frankly, this is a market that I think is probably just sitting still until we can figure out what to do with the next set of data.
Concerns of Recession, etc.
There are a lot of concerns about the United States heading into a recession. So, the non-farm payroll number on Friday will be a big deal. With that being the case, I think you’ve got a situation where it is probably only a matter of time before we come to some type of resolution. But the 1.32 level underneath is support at the moment with 1.3425 being resistance.
As we continue to go back and forth, I think it does suggest that we’re just waiting around. Keep in mind that interest rates in America have been climbing, so it’s not quite the interest rate play that it had been over multiple years. After all, for the longest time, you would just buy the British pound and short the US dollar. If we were to close on Friday below the 1.32 level, that could be the beginning of something important, just as a close above the 1.3450 level would be.
As things stand right now, it does look bullish, but it is worth noting that the area that we have been testing has been very important in the past. So, one would assume there’s a certain amount of market memory in this neighborhood and therefore it is going to take a lot of work to break out to the upside. Friday should be volatile, but Friday should also be very informational. So, pay attention to how we close for the session.
The CADCHF succeeded in activating the bullish track again by surpassing 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at 174.45, to notice recording clear gains by reaching 175.72.
The continuation of forming extra support and providing positive momentum by the main indicators, which will increase the chances for recording new gains, to expect reaching 176.10, and surpassing this barrier will make the price succeed to press on %78.1Fibonacci correction level at 176.85.
The expected trading range for today is between 174.90 and 176.10
Trend forecast: Bullish
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EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.1300 after a three-day slide.
The near-term technical outlook is yet to highlight a buildup of bullish momentum.
April Nonfarm Payrolls data from the US could trigger the next big action in the pair.
EUR/USD closed the third consecutive day in negative territory on Thursday and touched its weakest level in nearly three weeks below 1.1270. Although the pair stabilizes above 1.1300 in the European session on Friday, it remains fragile heading into the key April employment data release from the US.
Euro PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.35%
0.20%
1.04%
-0.30%
-0.29%
0.62%
-0.31%
EUR
-0.35%
-0.21%
0.69%
-0.66%
-0.74%
0.26%
-0.68%
GBP
-0.20%
0.21%
0.91%
-0.44%
-0.55%
0.47%
-0.46%
JPY
-1.04%
-0.69%
-0.91%
-1.32%
-1.30%
-1.83%
-1.10%
CAD
0.30%
0.66%
0.44%
1.32%
-0.12%
0.92%
-0.00%
AUD
0.29%
0.74%
0.55%
1.30%
0.12%
1.02%
0.08%
NZD
-0.62%
-0.26%
-0.47%
1.83%
-0.92%
-1.02%
-0.92%
CHF
0.31%
0.68%
0.46%
1.10%
0.00%
-0.08%
0.92%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) ignored mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US and preserved its strength on Thursday, causing EUR/USD to stretch lower. The improving risk mood on growing optimism about a de-escalation in the US-China trade conflict helped the USD outperform its rivals. Bloomberg reported that China’s Commerce Ministry said that the US has taken the initiative to convey to China that the US is hoping to talk on trade.
In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the labor market data for April. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are forecast to rise 130,000 following the impressive 228,000 increase recorded in March. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.
In case there is a significant negative surprise, with an NFP reading below 100,000, investors could see this as a sign pointing to a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in June and trigger a USD selloff. On the flip side, an upbeat NFP print could cause EUR/USD to turn south ahead of the weekend.
According go the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 42% probability that the Fed will maintain policy settings in June. This market positioning suggests that the USD faces a two-way risk heading into this event.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 50 despite the latest rebound. Additionally, EUR/USD continues to trade below the 50-period and the 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, pointing to a lack of buyer interest.
On the upside, 1.1370-1.1380 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as first resistance before 1.1430 (static level) and 1.1500 (static level, round level). Looking south, supports could be located at 1.1270 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), 1.1175 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.1080 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation.
A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work.
The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower.
NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa.
Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold.
Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components.
At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary.
The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Natural gas price attempted to renew the bullish attempts by its rally yesterday towards $3.550, but providing negative momentum by the main indicators, specifically stochastic exit from the overbought level, which pushed it to return to $3.440, easing the way for activating the bearish correctional track.
Therefore, we will begin preferring the bearish scenario, confirming that holding below the barrier at $3.600, reinforcing the chances for reaching $3.330 then targeting $3.210.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.330 and $3.520
Trend forecast: Bearish
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Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.
And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500
Trend forecast: Bearish
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Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.
And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500
Trend forecast: Bearish
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Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.
And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500
Trend forecast: Bearish
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Full coverage of commodities such as gold, oil, silver, and more
Full coverage of all major forex currency pairs
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Silver Follows Gold Higher as Rate Cut Hopes Build
Silver (XAG/USD) tracked gold’s momentum, trading at $32.62 and reaching an intra-day high of $32.71. The metal is benefiting from renewed interest in precious metals amid softening U.S. macroeconomic data.
This week’s ADP employment report signaled weakening private-sector job growth, while initial jobless claims jumped to 241,000, marking the highest reading since February.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI also remained in contraction at 48.7, underscoring broad economic deceleration.
Stronger Dollar, Trade Talks Cap Upside Momentum
Despite the rally, gains in gold remain capped as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds near a three-week high. Optimism over renewed trade negotiations between the U.S. and China—following remarks from China’s Commerce Ministry—has lent support to the greenback, dampening safe-haven demand.
“The stronger dollar is temporarily capping gains in bullion,” said a Hong Kong-based metals strategist. “But if the NFP misses, we could see a breakout above $3,270.”
Markets Price in Four Fed Rate Cuts by Year-End
According to CME FedWatch Tool data, markets are now pricing in four 25-basis-point rate cuts by December. With inflation cooling and labor data softening, the Fed may be forced to act sooner than initially projected.
