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April 15, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Strikes Six-Month Best on UK-US Trade Deal Hopes

GBP/USD climbed to a six-month best buy exchange rate on Tuesday, buoyed by a risk-positive market mood and rising speculation over a potential UK-US trade agreement.

The Pound exchange rates enjoyed support on Tuesday as investors embraced riskier assets, pushing the increasingly risk-sensitive UK currency higher against its safe-haven counterparts.

This rally came despite a mixed UK labour market report. While wage growth remained relatively robust in the three months to February, the figure undershot forecasts, prompting some traders to raise their expectations for a potential Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut in May.

Adding to Sterling’s strength were fresh signs of progress towards a UK-US trade deal. Comments from US Vice-President JD Vance suggested the UK could secure more favourable terms than its European peers, stating:

‘I think there’s a good chance that, yes, we’ll come to a great agreement that’s in the best interest of both countries.’

The remarks helped lift sentiment toward the Pound throughout the session.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) came under pressure on Tuesday as investors shifted away from the safe-haven currency in favour of riskier assets.

Sentiment was boosted after the US confirmed that electronics would be excluded from the newly announced 145% tariffs on imports from China.

Additionally, Donald Trump signalled that potential tariffs on imported cars and car parts could be delayed, giving automakers more time to establish production facilities on American soil.

This combination of easing trade tensions and upbeat risk appetite left the US Dollar struggling for support.

Looking ahead, the UK’s latest consumer price index, due Wednesday morning, could shape the direction of GBP/USD.

Analysts are forecasting a modest slowdown in inflation, which may reinforce expectations of a BoE rate cut and apply downward pressure on the Pound.

Later in the day, US retail sales data for March is expected to show strong growth – a result that could help the US Dollar recover some ground.

Traders will also be keeping an eye on developments around US trade policy and potential UK-US trade talks. While recession concerns in the US could continue to drag on the Dollar, any renewed optimism about a trade pact could offer the Pound fresh support.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen during trading on Monday and then again, here early on Tuesday. This is a market that’s trying to find its bottom. And it is probably worth noting that the yen is starting to sell off a bit against other currencies. So, this might be more of a yen story at the moment. But nonetheless, if we can clear the 145 yen level to the upside, it’s likely that we will see a bit of follow through. The 140 yen level underneath is probably your next major support level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied again in early trading on Tuesday, but quite frankly, this currency pair is the poster child of an overbought currency situation. After all, this assumes that China is just suddenly going to have smooth things over with the United States and vice versa because the Australian dollar, of course, is highly sensitive to the Chinese situation.

Furthermore, we have the 200 day EMA sitting just above the 0.64 level, an area that’s been resistance multiple times. And we got here pretty quickly. So, we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out. Signs of exhaustion could very well lead to selling towards the 0.62 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• EUR/USD fluctuates in a narrow band below 1.1400 on Tuesday.
• The bullish bias remains intact in the short-term technical outlook.
• Investors could refrain from taking large positions ahead of the ECB’s policy announcements.

EUR/USD moves up and down in a narrow channel at around 1.1350 after posting small gains on Monday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact but investors could remain on the sidelines, waiting for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcements due Thursday.

The improving risk mood helped EUR/USD hold its ground at the beginning of the week. On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) found its footing following the previous week’s steep decline and limited the pair’s upside amid easing fears over a deepening global trade conflict.

In an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the United States (US) National Economic Council (NEC), said that they are making “enormous progress” on tariff talks with the European Union.

The US economic calendar will feature the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey, alongside the Imports Price Index and Export Price Index data for March. A significant decline in the Empire State Manufacturing Index could revive concerns over an economic downturn in the US and caused the USD to come under renewed selling pressure with the immediate reaction.

Meanwhile, the data from the Eurozone showed that Industrial Production expanded by 1.1% on a monthly basis in February, surpassing the market expectation for an increase of 0.2%. On a negative note, ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment slumped to -18.5 in April from 39.8 in March.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60 on Tuesday, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact in the near term. Additionally, EUR/USD holds comfortably above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).

On the upside, 1.1400 (psychological level, static level) aligns as first resistance before 1.1470 (static level) and 1.1500 (round level). Looking south, first support could be spotted at 1.1340 (static level) ahead of 1.1300 (static level, round level) and 1.1250 (static level).

(This story was corrected on April 15 at 09:41 GMT to say that ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment slumped to -18.5 in April, not February.)

Platinum price formed a new bullish rally achieving $958.00 level, then rebound directly to settle near the barrier at $950.00 level, affected by the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators.

The price might be forced to form mixed sideways trading, but the main stability above the support level at $920.00 represents a main factor that motivates the bullish trading, reminding you that the main targets settled near $966,00, and surpassing it will confirm regaining the main bullish bias, by its stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image.

The expected trading range for today is between $940,00 and $966.00

Trend forecast: Bullish