Foreign exchange analysts at Rabobank have raised their exchange rate forecasts for the Euro versus the Pound Sterling.
Recent US tariff concerns have driven investors towards currencies backed by current account surpluses, benefiting the Euro (EUR).
“The Eurozone’s current account surplus appears to be a source of support for the EUR currently.”
The Euro’s resilience as a temporary safe haven reflects investors’ preference to hold cash amid market uncertainty.
“Investors appear to be sitting on cash in CHF, JPY and EURs while waiting for current fog of uncertainty to clear.”
The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains vulnerable due to the UK’s persistent current account deficit, especially when domestic fundamentals weaken.
“The UK’s current account deficit can leave GBP exposed when UK fundamentals turn sour and international investors look for the exits.”
Germany’s shift towards increased public spending, notably in defence and technology, further boosts the Euro’s attractiveness.
“Investors had already been looking for fresh opportunities in Europe, so sitting on cash in EURs may seem like a reasonable position.”
Consequently, Rabobank has raised its EUR/GBP forecast to 0.85 for the six-month horizon.
“We have adjusted our EUR/GBP forecasts higher and now see the currency pair at 0.85 on a 6 month vs. compared with a previous forecast of 0.83.”
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The light sweet crude oil market has initially gotten hammered, but as you can see, we have seen the market turn right back around and scream to the upside.
This makes a certain amount of sense considering that Donald Trump has removed tariffs for a bulk of the countries with the exception of China and the 10 % base tariffs that he was talking about throwing on everybody anyways.
That being said, a 10 % tariff isn’t as massive of a problem for the world.
There’s quite a few countries out there that have been tariffing the United States 20, 30, 40 % for decades. So really it does more or less kind of just somewhat even the playing field. It’s not aggressive. It’s something that producers of various goods around the world can absorb.
On a Move Above $60
That being said, it’s worth noting that we are above the $60 level, but we are giving back some of the gains. And I think the process here is going to be extraordinarily noisy. The $65 level above is a massive barrier. If we could break that, it would be a huge win for the bulls. But right now, I don’t think we’re anywhere near that. I think we’re probably closer to a situation where we’re trying to form some type of basing pattern that is higher than we hit overnight. But we also have to worry about China and their reaction to the now 125 % tariffs on their goods, because during the day Amazon, and I’m starting to hear a little bit of chatter from Walmart as well, are canceling orders from China. This is a big deal. This means things just got a little uglier. Chinese banks have been ordered not to buy US dollars. Good luck with that. There’s no way to pay international debts without them. So, things are going to get very interesting very quick.
With that being said, there is a certain amount of concern about the overall global demand. If China slips into a recession and the US slips into a recession, everybody feels it. So, I think this is still a market that you would want to at least think about being bearish on, but you might want to get out of the way of trying to short it. A range between $60 and $65 does make a certain amount of sense, but you need stability before you start putting money to work.
The British Pound has been all over the place against the US dollar as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
With that being said, we are sitting right on the 1.2750 level, an area that should offer a lot of support.
We also have the 200 day EMA sitting there as well.
The resulting candlestick does look a lot like an inverted hammer, and this is an ugly sign for the British pound. During the day, Donald Trump announced that the tariffs would be paused for 90 days, at least the reciprocal tariffs, except for China. So, we’ve seen a rush back into the US dollar as a result. if the wait and see on this points out, but we had been selling off a bit anyway. So, I do think that the first crack in the ice, as far as Europe is concerned, might end up being the British pound. Well, at the wait and see, but if we were to break down below the 1.27 level, I think this is a market that drops precipitously again.
Headlines Continue to Be an Issue
The biggest problem you have is that the latest headline is what will drive massive amounts of money in and out of the market. So we’re not at normal time and you have to keep your position size reasonable as a result. After all, you could end up seeing a 70 pip move in a matter of seconds with the right headline.
That move could be in either direction. So, you have to keep that in mind as well. In general, I do think that this is a pair that drops, but I need to see a fresh new low to actually start shorting if we rally, then I would anticipate that the British pound probably sees a lot of resistance near the 1.29 level.
Goldman Sachs has slashed its oil prices forecasts again and now expects Brent Crude to average below $60 per barrel next year, at $58, amid recession risks, slowing demand, and more supply from the OPEC+ producers.
The investment bank had previously forecasted oil demand growth at 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year but now it sees the growth at half this figure, at 300,000 bpd.
Higher risks of recessions and higher-than-expected OPEC+ production prompted Goldman Sachs to slash again its oil price forecasts for 2026, days after it had already cut its price outlook in the wake of the U.S. tariffs announcement last week.
Goldman Sachs’s analysts issued a new note dated April 6, in which they slashed their 2026 oil price forecasts by $4 per barrel to $58 for Brent Crude prices and to $55 for the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude.
On Friday, Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast for 2025 by 5.5 per cent for Brent crude and by 4.3 per cent for West Texas Intermediate, citing the OPEC+ decision to boost production in May and the tariff barrage that President Trump unleashed. The bank also revised down its 2026 Brent crude forecast by 9 per cent to $62 per barrel and its 2026 WTI forecast by 6.3 per cent to $59 per barrel.
Two days later, Goldman Sachs slashed the forecasts again and now expects Brent Crude to average below $60 per barrel next year, at $58, amid recession risks, slowing demand, and more supply from the OPEC+ producers.
The investment bank had previously forecasted oil demand growth at 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year. Now it sees the growth at half this figure, at 300,000 bpd.
There is a chance of oil prices rising from current levels if the U.S. backs down from the tariffs, according to the bank.
“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses, Goldman’s analysts wrote in the April 6 note carried by Reuters.
Goldman Sachs last week raised recession odds to 45 per cent over the next 12 months, up from a 35 per cent chance of a recession estimated previously. Goldman’s analysts cited “a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”
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The FOMC Minutes could have a limited impact on markets given recent tariffs’ turmoil.
The trade war escalation brought back risk-off trading, underpinning gold.
XAU/USD approaches the $3,100 mark and could extend gains to fresh record highs.
Spot Gold resumed its bullish run after a brief consolidating phase, trading a handful of bucks below the $3,100 mark in the American session, up roughly $100 on the day amid returning risk-aversion. The escalation of the trade war, particularly between the United States (US) and China. Following US President Trump’s decision to double levies on the Asian giant to a whopping 104%, Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs of 84%.
Back-and-forth announcements finally took their toll on financial markets, and fears returned. Investors are concerned about a potential US recession alongside economic setbacks among major economies. Market participants are also worried about upward inflationary pressures coming with widespread import taxes, and how those could affect central banks’ upcoming monetary policy decisions.
Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee is about to release the Minutes from the March meeting. Given the latest tariffs’ developments, the document could be considered old news and have a limited impact on the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, the document may shed additional light on policymakers’ thinking.
Back in March, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed Chair Jerome Powell and co are in no rush to move interest rates amid increased fiscal and political uncertainty. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to trim rates by modest 50 basis points (bps) this year, with increased doubts about such moves given mounting trading tensions.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is poised to retest record highs in the $3,160 region. The daily chart for the pair shows technical indicators advancing within positive levels, with sharp bullish slopes. At the same time, the pair recovered above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $3,044. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading firmly higher, far below the shorter one, in line with the dominant bullish trend.
The near-term picture also favors another leg higher, although given the intraday advance, Gold may consolidate or even correct lower before resuming gains. Still, the 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD stands above all its moving averages, which, anyway, lack directional strength. At the same time, technical indicators have turned flat near their intraday highs, and well above their midlines, suggesting absent selling interest.
Support levels: 3,078.30 3,062.90 3,051.10
Resistance levels: 3,105.00 3,122.85 3,136.50
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The EURJPY pair provided new negative closes below the moving average 55 at 161.20 level, which forces it to return to settle within the bearish channel’s levels, to begin targeting some of the negative stations by reaching 159.60.
The contradiction between the main indicators might force the price to form mixed waves, but the chances of activating the bearish track will remain valid, if the trading settled below the bearish channel’s resistance at 160.75, to expect forming an initial negative target at 158.90 level, reaching 157.40 in the near period trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 158.90 and 161.00
The day’s high of $3.83 attempted to test the 50-Day MA as resistance following a daily close below line last Friday. Although the recovery above the trendline is positive, the 50-Day line needs to be reclaimed if natural gas is going to have a chance to further strengthen. There is also the 20-Day MA that is a little higher at $3.94. Since the 20-Day line is falling there is the potential for it to drop below the 50-Day line. That would be a bearish sign if it is sustained.
Quick Recover Above Trendline
Since natural gas recovered the trendline in less than two days, and it followed a retracement to a key 78.6% retracement level, an eventual advance to test resistance around the downtrend line seems likely, at a minimum. Notice that support was found yesterday at the lower channel line, and it was again tested today with a brief undercut of the lower channel.
Moreover, although the middle line (dashed) of the channel was exceeded today, natural gas may close at or slightly below that line. If it does so, it will be the second day that the middle line was recognized. Notice that Tuesday’s low found support at the lower end of the channel.
Daily Close Above 20-Day Moving Average Needed for Bulls
Until there is a daily close above the 20-Day MA and the top falling trendline, there remains the possibility that bearish correction has not completed, and further tests of lows could occur. Another drop below the trendline would indicate that it was not successfully tested as support, reflecting continued underlying downward pressure.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The Pound Euro exchange rate drifted lower on Wednesday as investor nerves were rattled by a resurgence in global trade tensions.
At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at around €1.1624, down approximately 0.2% from the morning’s opening level, having briefly touched a low of €1.1578 earlier in the session.
The Euro (EUR) firmed on Wednesday, buoyed by a combination of safe-haven flows and weakness in the US Dollar (USD).
This came in response to a fresh wave of tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump, including a steep 104% duty on select Chinese goods, which triggered fresh market anxiety.
The Euro’s strength was further bolstered by its inverse correlation with the US Dollar, which slipped as investors began to price in the economic cost of escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Appetite for the Greenback also waned as concerns mounted over the credibility of US policy, with some market watchers questioning the long-term impact of Trump’s aggressive trade strategy.
The Pound (GBP) found itself on the back foot as soaring UK government bond yields stoked investor concerns.
A heavy selloff in UK bonds pushed the 30-year yield to its highest point since 1998, even surpassing the peak seen during the bond market turbulence earlier this year.
This placed additional strain on GBP sentiment as rising yields risk pushing up government borrowing costs and could complicate Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s fiscal plans, particularly her aim to stimulate growth while maintaining budget discipline.
Looking ahead, the Pound Euro exchange rate may remain under pressure through the end of the week as the fallout from Trump’s tariffs continues to ripple through global markets.
Safe-haven flows could continue to support the Euro if risk appetite remains subdued, while the Pound may face further losses if UK economic uncertainty deepens.
However, the publication of the UK’s monthly GDP data could offer Sterling some reprieve if February’s figures show a return to growth, helping to alleviate some recent concerns over the health of the British economy.
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Coffee price began gathering its gains by activating the bearish correctional track after breaking 370.65, to notice its decline towards 338.20, to settle below the moving average 55.
Stochastic reach to the oversold level will increase the negative pressures, which makes us prefer targeting extra negative stations that might begin at 332.00 and 326.30 before any attempt to regain the bullish track.
The expected trading range for today is between 332.00 and 355.10
Trend forecast: Bearish
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Looking at the near-term outlook, the Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade sideways against the US Dollar (USD) , according to the latest technical analysis by FX strategists at Scotiabank.
“GBPUSD’s sharp reversal of last week’s delivered a break of its one-month range and a push to fresh local lows in the mid/lower-1.28s” says Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank.
“The RSI has drifted below 50, in bearish territory, and there doesn’t appear to be any clear support ahead of the lower 1.27s.”
The Pound US Dollar exchange rate firmed on Wednesday as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs took effect.
On Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) weakened against most of its major counterparts as Trump’s tariffs took effect, stoking concerns about a potential US recession.
With the implementation of significant tariffs, such as a 104% levy on Chinese imports, several countries, including China, pledged to respond.
These developments further clouded the outlook for the US economy, intensifying fears of an economic downturn.
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As global markets absorbed the news of the escalating trade war, sentiment improved, reducing the appeal of the USD as a safe-haven currency and leading to its decline against many of its peers.
On Wednesday, the Pound (GBP) experienced fluctuations against most of its peers due to a lack of UK economic data, causing it to move in line with broader market sentiment.
In the risk-on environment, GBP exchange rates seesawed, weakening against riskier currencies while holding steady against safe-haven currencies.
This highlighted the Pound’s increasing sensitivity to market risk.
With no major UK economic data to influence trading, GBP exchange rates largely followed the uptick in risk appetite throughout much of Wednesday’s European trading session.
Looking ahead, the main catalyst of movement for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate on Thursday will likely be the latest FOMC meeting minutes.
Set to be released on Wednesday evening, these minutes could add further volatility to an already turbulent US Dollar.
For the Pound, Thursday’s economic calendar will once again be devoid of UK data, meaning GBP exchange rates are likely to continue trading in line with market sentiment as the week unfolds.
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