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US President Trump’s threat of more tariffs takes its toll on the US Dollar.
The United States will release PCE Price Index data on Friday.
XAU/USD maintains its positive momentum near fresh record highs.
The broad US Dollar (USD) weakness helped XAU/USD resumed its advance, with the bright metal reaching a fresh record high at $3,059.67, in the American session.
Markets rushed away from the USD and into safety after United States (US) President Donald Trump came out with fresh tariffs threats. Trump announced new 25% levies on cars and car parts coming into the US late on Wednesday, while adding more tariffs could be imposed to the Eurozone (EU) and Canada. Taxes on vehicles will come into effect on April 3, while those on auto parts will come in May or later.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that Trump’s new auto tariffs are “a direct attack” on the Canadian autoworkers. “We will defend our workers, we will defend our companies, we will defend our country, and we will defend it together,” Carney added.
The news negatively affected stock markets, which struggled to attract investors. Asian indexes ended the day mixed, although European ones ended the day mixed. As for US indexes, they also stand in the red.
Investors will now focus on upcoming US data. On Friday, the country will release the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve (Fed )’s favorite inflation gauge. Core annual PCE is foreseen at 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.6% posted in January.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The XAU/USD pair maintains the upward pressure and aims to extend its advance, according to technical readings in the daily chart. The pair develops above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) picking up momentum and currently at around $2,968.40. At the same time, technical indicators resumed their advances within positive levels, in line with a higher high ahead.
The near-term picture is bullish. XAU/USD extended its recovery above a now mildly bullish 20 SMA in the 4-hour chart, while the 100 and 200 SMAs advance below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators head north above their midlines, with uneven upward strength, yet still reflecting prevalent buying interest.
Silver (XAG/USD) recovers recent losses from the previous session, trading around $33.70 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Thursday. The metal gains traction as investors seek safe-haven assets following the US auto tariff announcement, which has fueled concerns over potential retaliatory measures next week.
Risk-off sentiment intensified after US President Donald Trump signed an order late Wednesday imposing a 25% tariff on auto imports, effective April 2, with collections starting the next day. However, auto parts imports will receive a one-month reprieve.
Additionally, Silver, a non-yielding asset, could have attracted buyers as US Treasury yields decline, with the 2-year and 10-year yields hovering at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. Moreover, a weaker US Dollar (USD) also makes Silver more affordable for foreign buyers, further supporting the demand for the grey metal.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reaffirmed its December projection for two rate cuts this year but adopted a cautious stance. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stressed the ongoing inflation battle, stating, “The job market has stayed strong, but the biggest challenge is to finish the job,” echoing Chair Powell’s view that rate cuts are not imminent. Kashkari also highlighted policy uncertainty as a complicating factor for the Fed.
Traders are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the final Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized report due Thursday. Additionally, Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—will provide further policy insights.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The British pound is affected by UK inflation and budget announcements.
The Bank of England may be prepared to cut interest rates.
The US dollar is stronger ahead of economic growth readings.
Selling pressure on the British pound against other major currencies has increased after the Office for National Statistics announced a monthly rise in the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 0.4% month-on-month, below the expected 0.5%. According to the economic calendar data, the annual CPI inflation in Britain fell to 2.8% from 3.0% in January 2025, while expectations were for a 2.9% increase. This decline is mainly attributed to a fall in clothing and footwear prices on an annual basis (-0.6%), marking the first negative rate since October 2021.
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According to forex market trading, the GBP/USD pair fell to the 1.2873 support level, where it remained at the time of writing.
UK Inflation and Its Impact on Bank of England Policies
As officially announced, CPI inflation in the services sector, which the Bank of England closely monitors, remained stable at 5.0%. The core CPI inflation rate, another important measure for the bank, fell to 3.5% in February 2025, down from 3.7% in January, and below the expected 3.6%. While inflation remains significantly above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target, its fall below expectations has led to a decline in the currency’s value.
Overall, following the data release, traders raised their expectations for another Bank of England interest rate cut in May to 80%. The increased likelihood of a May rate cut reflects a slight decline in UK bond yields and a decline in the value of the pound. However, the Bank of England will remain limited in its ability to cut interest rates frequently, as inflation remains stubbornly high, and economists warn it will rise further.
On the monetary policy front, Andrew Sentance, a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, says that rising national insurance contributions and energy and water prices are likely to push CPI inflation to over 4%. He adds, “It is expected to reach 5% or more in the fall.” Therefore, inflationary pressures are high, which will limit the decline in UK bond yields and the British pound’s exchange rates. However, not all economists agree that inflationary pressures will continue to rise. Deutsche Bank, for example, believes that the rationale for consecutive interest rate cuts is increasing.
According to currency trading experts, a faster decline in bank interest rates is likely in the coming months, which will negatively impact the British pound next year. In fact, the accelerated decline in interest rates in the UK is a major reason why many leading foreign exchange experts expect the pound to decline in the coming quarters.
Trading Tips:
As predicted, the failure of sterling bulls to maintain the psychological peak of 1.30 will increase selling pressure. The downward shift is ongoing.
UK stock prices rebound after economic data.
According to recent trading on stock trading company platforms, the UK FTSE 100 index maintained its gains, closing at 8690 points, mainly driven by the weak British pound after the unexpected decline in UK inflation to 2.8%, which boosted the income of London residents from abroad. However, UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ Spring statement added little new optimism for investors. Many key announcements, such as changes to social care and the National Health Service, were well-known, and their impact on the market was limited.
But the biggest disappointment came from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s revised growth forecast for the UK, which was cut from 2% to just 1% for 2024. This weighed on sentiment, particularly in the housing sector, where shares of major housebuilders fell before recovering. The UK government also admitted it would miss its target of building 1.5 million homes, revising its forecast to 1.3 million. Investors had hoped for bolder action on planning reforms to stimulate growth.
Meanwhile, defence shares, such as BAE Systems, rebounded after Reeves pledged to increase spending, while Shell continued its gains following its strategy update.
Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:
According to the daily chart performance, and as previously predicted, the GBP/USD bulls’ abandonment of the 1.3000 psychological resistance level will incentivize bears to move with sell orders to take profits downward. This is what happened, and currently, selling pressure on the GBP/USD will increase if the pair moves towards the 1.2800 support level. The technical indicators, led by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), have turned downward. Conversely, on the same timeframe, the 1.3000 psychological resistance level remains crucial for the bulls to control the GBP/USD trend.
Today’s economic calendar will be devoid of any significant UK economic releases. The focus will be on US releases, led by the GDP growth reading and the weekly US jobless claims. Additionally, the GBP/USD will react to investors’ risk appetite.
Goldman Sachs’ stock price (GS) tumbled in latest intraday trading, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend in the short term, with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, while a negative divergence forms in the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels compared to the price’s movements.
Therefore we expect more losses for the price, targeting the support of $527.50, provided the resistance of $611.90 holds on.
The Bank of Japan is prepared to raise interest rates.
US tariffs affect market performance.
For three consecutive trading sessions, bulls have succeeded in stabilizing the USD/JPY pair around and above the psychological resistance of 150.00, which has often been noted as a potential starting point for a new upward channel for the pair. The USD/JPY pair’s upward rebound gains reached the 150.92 resistance level, the pair’s highest level in nearly three weeks, before stabilizing around 150.50 at the start of trading on Thursday.
Japanese Yen Affected by Bank of Japan Signals
According to forex market trading, the Japanese yen declined, giving up its gains as investors braced for the implementation of reciprocal US tariffs, which could impact key Japanese exports. A rebound in riskier assets, including stocks and commodities, also dampened demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven. In Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that he would continue raising interest rates if economic forecasts materialize. Ueda emphasized that economic growth has exceeded expectations, as a positive cycle of rising incomes has led to increased consumer spending.
In last week’s decision, the Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate steady at 0.5%, with officials maintaining a cautious stance while assessing global economic risks, particularly the potential repercussions of higher US tariffs.
Trading Tips:
The stabilization of USD/JPY above the 150 level stimulates an upward shift.
Japanese government bond yields reach their highest level in more than 16 years.
According to trading via reliable trading companies, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to approximately 1.59%, marking its highest level in 16 and a half years, after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that he would continue to raise interest rates if economic forecasts materialize. Ueda stressed that economic growth had exceeded expectations, with a positive cycle of rising income leading to increased consumer spending. Additionally, the Bank of Japan governor revealed earlier this week that the Bank of Japan is gradually reducing its holdings of long-term Japanese government bonds, while emphasizing the impossibility of immediate sales.
US Dollar Ignores Weak Consumer Confidence
According to Forex market trading, the US dollar’s performance was affected by the announcement of weak consumer confidence, the primary driver of the US consumption-based economy. Without it, production will inevitably decline. According to economists, US households expected President Trump to unleash tax cuts and deregulations, but instead, there is austerity and the potential for significant trade tariffs. This raises concerns about household finances and job opportunities, with fears that this will translate into weak spending.
According to licensed trading platforms, the US dollar reached its highest level since 2022 on January 13, amid continued outperformance by the US economy and its associated assets, particularly the stock market. However, US exceptionalism has dissipated under US President Donald Trump’s erratic approach to tariffs and spending cuts. Policy uncertainty has led to a decline in US stock markets, negatively impacting consumer and business confidence, which inevitably weighs on the dollar. There’s more to come, as Trump is set to announce his largest tariff announcement yet on April 2.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
According to daily chart performance, the stabilization of the USD/JPY pair around and above the psychological resistance of 150.00 will stimulate bulls’ control and support the formation of an ascending channel. The upward shift will be confirmed by movement towards the resistance levels of 151.20 and 152.00, respectively. Currently, the technical indicators MACD and RSI have turned upward. Conversely, on the same timeframe, the support level of 148.70 remains a threat to the current upward shift. Finally, we still prefer buying the USD/JPY pair from every downward level.
Natural gas price formed weak sideways trading yesterday near $3.880 in an attempt to shake off negative signals from the Stochastic, while holding repeatedly above the support of $3.750.
It’s likely an indication of the strength of the upward trend towards $4.060, thus sending the price even higher to $4.180.
Expected trading range today is between $3.750 and $4.060.
Today’s price forecast: Bullish as the support holds
Copper price closed higher once again above $5.000, paving the way for more gains, especially as the Stochastic exited overbought saturation levels and held near 80, providing more positive signals and pushing the price towards $5.3200 then $5.4100.
A breach of the $5.000 barrier however would send the price towards lesser targets, including $4.9100 and $4.8100.
Expected trading range today is between $5.100 and $5.4100.
Silver price gains as auto tariffs by US President Trump have improved its safe-haven demand.
Trump’s auto tariffs will also be unfavorable for the US economy.
Investors await the US PCE inflation data, which will be released on Friday.
Silver price (XAG/USD) advances to near $34.00 during European trading hours on Thursday. The white metal strengthens as fresh 25% tariffs on cars entering the United States (US) have stoked fears of global economic uncertainty.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that auto tariffs “will be 25%”, which will come into effect April 2 and will be collected from April 3. Trump added that these tariffs would be permanent.
The impact of Trump’s auto tariffs will be significant on Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Germany, which were the top 5 auto exporters to the United States in 2022, according to the Commerce Department.
The Silver price tends to perform better in heightening global economic uncertainty.
US President Trump’s auto tariffs have also weighed on the US Dollar (USD) as its consequences will also be borne by the domestic economy. The automakers of the US would be forced to set up manufacturing facilities in the domestic region. Given high labor cost in the US economy, prices of cars will shoot up, which will diminish the purchasing power of households. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, retraces from its three-week high of 104.68 posted on Wednesday.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be released on Friday. Economists expect the US core PCE inflation, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, to have grown at a faster pace of 2.7% year-on-year, compared to the 2.6% increase seen in January.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price advances toward the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.
The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.20 continues to provide support to the Silver price.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds above 60.00, suggesting a resurgence in bullish momentum.
Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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The EUR/JPY cross may face initial resistance around the psychological level of 165.00.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, strengthening the bullish outlook.
Immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA of 161.79, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 161.50.
EUR/JPY dips slightly after gaining in the previous session, hovering around 161.90 during Thursday’s Asian trading hours. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is moving within an ascending channel, supporting a bullish outlook.
Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, reinforcing the bullish bias. The cross also stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling strong short-term momentum and the potential for further gains.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could encounter initial resistance near the “pullback resistance” around the psychological level of 165.00. Beyond this, the next key hurdle lies at 166.69—an eight-month high last reached in October 2024—aligning with the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
The EUR/JPY cross may find initial support at the nine-day EMA of 161.79, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 161.50. A break below this critical support zone could weaken short-term momentum, potentially driving the cross toward the 50-day EMA at 160.49.
Further decline below the 50-day EMA could erode medium-term momentum, intensifying bearish pressure and dragging the cross toward its monthly low of 155.59, recorded on March 4, followed by 154.41, its lowest level since December 2023.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.25%
-0.18%
-0.27%
0.00%
-0.15%
-0.11%
-0.13%
EUR
0.25%
0.04%
-0.06%
0.23%
0.06%
0.12%
0.09%
GBP
0.18%
-0.04%
-0.10%
0.19%
0.02%
0.06%
0.05%
JPY
0.27%
0.06%
0.10%
0.27%
0.10%
0.14%
0.15%
CAD
-0.01%
-0.23%
-0.19%
-0.27%
-0.15%
-0.11%
-0.13%
AUD
0.15%
-0.06%
-0.02%
-0.10%
0.15%
0.05%
0.04%
NZD
0.11%
-0.12%
-0.06%
-0.14%
0.11%
-0.05%
-0.01%
CHF
0.13%
-0.09%
-0.05%
-0.15%
0.13%
-0.04%
0.01%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
