US crude oil price settled higher in latest intraday trading after reaching our price target of $70.000, bouncing off it lower amid negative signals from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels in a contradiction to the price’s action, thus forming a negative divergence, which could boost the negative scenario.

It comes amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend as the price moves alongside the trend line, with ongoing positive pressure due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.

• Gold price picks up bids once again above $3,000 but remains in a familiar range on Thursday.
• The US Dollar corrects from three-week highs on Trump’s tariff exemption and economic worries.
• Gold buyers keep their sights on record high amid bullish daily technical setup.  

Gold price is finding fresh demand above $3,000 early Thursday, following a lacklustre performance on Wednesday. Gold buyers try their luck and aim for the record high of $3,058 once again as they near Friday’s US inflation test.

Gold price remains at the mercy of tariff developments

So far in Thursday’s trading, Gold price is capitalizing on a fresh US Dollar (USD) pullback from three-week highs against its major rivals on reduced haven demand. Markets breathed a sigh of relief after US President Donald Trump announced earlier in the Asian session a one-month tariff exemption for auto parts imports from his new 25% automotive tariffs.

Further, US economic slowdown concerns resurfaced as traders assess the impact on Trump’s tariffs, lifting the traditional store of value Gold at the expense of the US Dollar.

However, it remains to be seen if Gold price sustains the upswing, especially after Wednesday’s subdued price action. The US final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision for the fourth quarter and the weekly Jobless Claims data will likely play a second fiddle to developments surrounding US tariffs. Speeches from several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be closely eyed.

Gold price fluctuated in a narrow range on Wednesday, initially holding ground amid renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. According to reports, Trump was set to impose three escalating levels of tariffs, with Canada likely to be on the lower end of the April 2 tariffs. Bloomberg News reported that the US President “plans to implement copper import tariffs within weeks.”

These reports initially weighed on the USD, allowing Gold price to build on Tuesday’s rebound but the tide turned in favor of the Greenback after Trump late on Wednesday re-announced plans for long-promised 25% tariffs on automotive imports, which are set to go into effect on April 2.

Fresh tariff threats spooked markets and revived the safety bids for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers also underpinned the US Dollar recovery, wiping out the earlier gains in Gold price to settle almost unchanged on the day.

Amid increased upside risks to the inflation outlook, courtesy of Trump’s tariffs, St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday the Fed had no urgency to cut rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed should stay put amid continued policy uncertainty, per Reuters.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The technical setup on the daily chart favors buyers, with their sights set on the ascending triangle target, measured at $3,080.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher, currently at 67, backing the upside.

Gold price appears poised to retake the record high of $3,058 on its way to achieving the triangle target of $3,080.

Conversely, the $3,000 round level will emerge as a powerful support. The next downside cap is aligned at the previous week’s low of $2,982.  

Further south, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the triangle support confluence at $2,963 will be a tough nut to crack for sellers.

(This story was corrected on March 27 at 5:57 to say that “The US Dollar corrects from three-week highs,” not lows.)

• Silver retreats 0.32%  after hitting $33.92, pressured by US Dollar rebound despite recent bullish momentum.
• RSI suggests bulls may attempt another push above $34.00 toward key resistance at $34.86.
• Breakdown below $33.00 exposes support at $32.66, followed by 50-day SMA near $32.04.

Silver price retreats by 0.32% after reaching a four-day high of $33.92. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $33.60, undermined by the strength of the US Dollar, which has registered solid gains.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

After registering a solid rally on Tuesday, Silver failed to break the $34.00 mark, which opened the door for sellers, capping the grey metal’s advance to challenging yearly peaks, near $34.23.

Momentum favors XAG/USD upside as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which, is about to surpass the previous peak. Therefore, short-term further upside is seen.

XAG/USD first resistance would be the March 26 high at $33.92. Once cleared the next stop would be the $34.00 figure, followed by last October’s monthly peak at $34.86.

Conversely, if XAG/USD slips beneath $33.00, immediate support emerges at the March 21 low of $32.66. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.04.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

US crude oil price settled higher in latest intraday trading after reaching our price target of $70.000, bouncing off it lower amid negative signals from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels in a contradiction to the price’s action, thus forming a negative divergence, which could boost the negative scenario.

It comes amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend as the price moves alongside the trend line, with ongoing positive pressure due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,016.75

• US President Donald Trump’s trade war exacerbates uncertainty levels.
• The sentiment soured amid expectations of additional US levies.
• XAU/USD trades with a softer tone, but holds within familiar levels.

Gold price is stable on Wednesday, hovering in a tight range around its daily opening. The bright metal failed to attract fresh buyers despite fresh US Dollar (USD) strength and a generally sour mood. Wall Street turned red after the opening, reflecting the risk-off sentiment.

Concerns gyrate around United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, with the latest on the matter indicating he is preparing auto tariffs and will unveil his plan as soon as today. His massive levies on US imports from around the world have triggered concerns among authorities and representatives from major economies, as such taxes could affect economic growth and inflation levels beyond the US. According to the latest data available, reciprocal tariffs will come into effect on April 2.

Meanwhile, US data was encouraging. The country released February Durable Goods Orders, which rose by 0.9%, beating the -1%. The latest update on the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be out on Thursday, alongside Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) member Neel Kashkari reiterated that there is still job to be done regarding inflation, while adding he is still uncertain about the effects of tariffs. He added that he takes very seriously the hit to confidence, and that the Fed should sit were it is, referring to maintain a wait-and-see stance.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair’s daily chart shows it trades around its daily opening, just below $3,020. The upward momentum faded, but the risk remains skewed to the upside, given that technical indicators hold well above their midlines, with modest upward slopes. At the same time, the pair keeps developing above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing support at around $2,960.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD remains stuck around a mildly bearish 20 SMA while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head modestly lower just below their midlines, not enough to confirm a steeper decline.

Support levels: 2,999.30 2,984.70 2,970.20

Resistance levels: 3,030.50 3,047.40 3,060.00

Minor Bearish Signs Seen

A descending trend channel has been added to the chart as today’s high was also close to that line. And it will be closer to price action tomorrow. The price area around the line will either show signs of resistance or a breakout through the line will occur. But regardless of which, subsequent price behavior should be more revealing.

Given the pattern within the declining channel and the drop below the 50-Day MA yesterday, it seems like lower prices may be tested as support before the correction is complete. However, the short-term outlook could change if there is a decisive breakout above today’s high and then a daily close above the trendline and the 50% retracement level at $5.95, which represented support recently on the way down.

Dominated by Declining Channel

Notice that the price of natural gas is now near the top of the trend channel. If a decline below today’s low is triggered that could be enough to accelerate the bearish correction. In general, once price reverses from one side of the channel there is a tendency to start to move toward the other side, which is the lower channel line. Regardless of whether natural gas eventually falls to the lower channel line, it implies lower prices.

Although the next potential support zone is around the early-March interim swing low at $3.74, the progression of the bear trend may be strong enough to fall through it. If that occurs, then the next lower uptrend line is the area to watch for support and the integrity of the uptrend that the line is associated with.

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