XAU/USD Current price: $3,329.73

• China reported a trade surplus of $103.22 billion in May, export and imports plunged.
• The United States will release the May Consumer Price Index next Wednesday.
• XAU/USD recovers from sub-$3,300, buying pressure is modest.

Spot Gold hovers near $3,330 a troy ounce, posting a modest intraday advance at the beginning of the week. XAU/USD recovered from an early low at $3,293.51 and advances after Wall Street’s opening amid renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness and a cautious mood.

Market players await news from trade talks as the United States (US) and China resumed negotiations. Top representatives from Washington and Beijing gather in London to discuss next steps. In the meantime, the Wall Street Journal reported market talks indicating US President Donald Trump authorized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to negotiate lifting some of the recent restrictions on a variety of products to China. Trump’s goal is to clinch a deal on rare earth minerals coming from China.

Earlier in the day, China reported a Trade Balance surplus of $103.22 billion in May, with Exports slowing to 4.8% year-on-year (YoY) down from the 8.1% posted in April. Imports shrank even further, down by 3.4% in the same period after shedding 0.2% in the year to April 2025.

Meanwhile, a holiday in Europe kept most pairs within familiar levels on Monday, with the bright metal being no exception. In fact, the macroeconomic calendar has little to offer until Wednesday, when the US will publish the May Consumer Price Index (CPI). Financial markets anticipate a modest uptick in the annual reading, not enough to twist the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy stance,

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it bounced from around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,295, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their strong bullish slopes far below the shorter one, in line with the dominant upward trend. At the same time, the Momentum indicator eases within positive levels, reflecting the limited buying interest rather than suggesting a steeper decline ahead. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers at around 52, failing to provide clear directional clues, yet overall suggesting sellers are not interested.

In the near term, XAU/USD aims to extend its recovery, but lacks conviction. The 4-hour chart shows technical indicators recovering within negative levels, still below their midlines. At the same time, the pair is developing below a mildly bearish 20 SMA, yet a mildly bullish 100 SMA advances beyond the 200 SMA while providing near-term support at around $3,3310.

Support levels: 3,310.00 3,295.00 3,278.10

Resistance levels: 3,332.50 3,345.20 3,361.95

• Silver price gains momentum to near  $36.00 in Monday’s early early Monday
• Investors look to broaden their exposure to safe-haven assets beyond gold, supporting the Silver price. 
• The stronger US May employment report might lift the USD and cap the white metal’s upside. 

The Silver (XAG/USD) price trades in positive territory around $36.00 during the Asian session on Monday. The white metal edges higher despite the stronger-than-expected US employment data for May.  Later on Monday, investors will closely watch the developments surrounding US-China trade talks.

Geopolitical and economic uncertainty could provide some support to the Silver price as investors seek more holdings in safe-haven assets. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to speak with Chinese officials about trade talks. 

Furthermore, industrial demand for applications such as solar panels contributes to the Silver’s upside. The Silver Institute estimated the metal’s supply was 15% below demand in 2024 and is projected to see another deficit in 2025.

On the other hand, the upbeat US May employment report gave the US Federal Reserve (Fed) a way to caution ahead of US-China trade talks, which are set to take place in London later in the day. This, in turn, might boost the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodities price. Federal Fund Futures pointed to a larger possibility that the Fed may keep its benchmark interest rate steady until the September monetary policy meetings. 

(This story was corrected on June 9 at 06:55 GMT, to say in the third paragraph that industrial demand for applications such as solar panels contributes to the Silver’s upside, not the USD’s upside.)

Buying pressure in gold subsided on Friday last week, as gold dropped more than 1000 points from $3403, courtesy of the NFP data favoring the U.S. dollar.

Russia has launched one of the war’s largest air attacks, and this news may bring more inflow into gold, and prices may rise.  

The bias in gold is still buy, and the price has already tapped its buying levels.  Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast from June 9th to June 13th, 2025.

Previous week’s forecast recap of crypto.news

In the previous week’s forecast, we marked the weekly level and the opening gap in gold from where the price has moved up 236 points so far. 

Now let’s start by discussing the key economic events of this week and their possible impact on the price of XAUUSD.

Key economic events of this week

Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD. 

Wednesday, June 11: CPI Information

• Core CPI m/m (0.3%) vs the prediction of 0.2%: Unexpectedly high core inflation might make the USD stronger and put downward pressure on XAU/USD.
• CPI m/m (0.2% expected against 0.2% actual): Probably neutral for gold, as anticipated.
• CPI year-over-year (2.5% vs. 2.3% forecast): A hawkish Fed tone and a negative outlook for gold could result from higher inflation.

Thursday, June 12: Jobs & PPI Data:

• Core PPI m/m (0.3% vs. -0.4%): Gold is down, but rate increase bets may be revived by a rebound in producer prices.
• PPI m/m (0.2% vs -0.5% earlier): A positive PPI bolsters inflation worries and is somewhat pessimistic for gold.
• Unemployment Claims (241K as opposed to the projected 247K): Reduced claims suggest a robust job market, a bullish USD, and a dismal outlook for gold.

Friday, June 13: UoM Information

• UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim (52.5 vs. expectation of 52.2):  A little better sentiment is bad for gold and indicates economic resiliency.
• Initial UoM Inflation Forecasts: If higher, gold may benefit from inflation hedge appeal; if lower, gold may suffer.

Gold HTF Overview

The HTF level in gold has formed a significant range, with the high end at $3357 and the low end at $3193. A breakout of either side and a retest will confirm the direction of gold in the coming weeks for medium-long-term investors.

Gold Forecast for June 9th to June 13th

Gold is currently bullish in 4h timeframes and above. However, it is showing bearish momentum in 1h and below. Currently, gold is rising after reaching a crucial point of interest (POI), as discussed above. Losing the marked support on the chart below can push it to internal liquidity of $3245, while a breakout above can take it to the external liquidity of $3403.

The first selling opportunity in gold is the golden zone of fib 0.5-0.618 level, which is coming around $3335-$3344, and this level is also the breaker block of the big range gold has broken to the downside. Meanwhile, the second selling opportunity is the POC and the VAH of the ongoing bearish swing, which is coming around $3357-3369.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold. 

Support Levels 

• $3303-3294 – a test of this support can be bought again in gold

Resistance Levels 

• $3335-$3344 – breaker block, 0.5-0.618 fib level of 1hr
• $3357-$3369. – POC and VAH of the bearish swing in 1hr

The price of (EURUSD) rose in its recent intraday trading, supported by the emergence of positive signals from the (RSI), after it declined from clear oversold levels, providing bullish momentum, reinforced by the continuation of the trading above the EMA50, besides the stability of the price with a bullish trend line on the short-term basis, alongside a minor supported bias.

This technical support pushed the pair to attack the critical resistance level at 1.1440, which represents an important technical barrier that might limit the next trend, where the price success to confirm breaching this level might open the way towards extending the bullish wave on the near- term basis.

The GBPJPY pair succeeded in taking advantage of the main indicator’s positiveness, forming a strong bullish rally, achieving the previously suggested targets by reaching 196.18, forming a temporary negative rebound, in order to catch its breath before forming a new bullish attack.

The bullish track will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support near 194.20, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, to expect surpassing 196.30 and reaching the next target at 197.35, to face 61.8%Fibonacci correction level.

The expected trading range for today is between 195.25 and 197.35

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair succeeded in taking advantage of the main indicator’s positiveness, forming a strong bullish rally, achieving the previously suggested targets by reaching 196.18, forming a temporary negative rebound, in order to catch its breath before forming a new bullish attack.

The bullish track will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support near 194.20, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, to expect surpassing 196.30 and reaching the next target at 197.35, to face 61.8%Fibonacci correction level.

The expected trading range for today is between 195.25 and 197.35

Trend forecast: Bullish