Copper price failed to settle above the extra support at $4.5400 by stochastic negative momentum, to push it to suffer several losses by hitting $4.4200, to settle below the moving average 55.

The continuation of the negative pressures makes us prefer more of the negative trading in the current period, to target $4.3200 level, while regaining the bullish bias requires forming strong bullish waves, to settle above $4.6600 level, which represents %50 Fibonacci correction level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4,3800 and $4.5800

Trend forecast: Bearish

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has flexed its muscles against the Japanese yen and it’s interesting that the 145 yen level has been like a brick wall. If we can make a fresh high above the early part of the week and the 50 day EMA, I think that will bring in a lot more buyers of US dollars and people willing to take advantage of the interest rate differential as it certainly favors the US dollar. At that point in time, we could be looking at a move to the 148 yen level. In the meantime, I think short-term pullbacks continue to be buying opportunities as it looks like we’re trying to base here.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally but has given back gains. We are getting dangerously close to seeing a reversal here as well. A move below the 50 day EMA is enough for me. At that point in time, I start shorting. I think it was obvious after the Federal Reserve meeting that the Fed is not going to cut rates in June, unlike what most of the trading community seemed to be banking on.

And now, the odds of a rate cut later this year are starting to drop a little bit as well. People still believe in a couple of rate cuts coming out of the Federal Reserve, but at the same time, he made it pretty clear during the press conference yesterday that he really didn’t know what they were going to do because there were far too many variables out there that caused confusion.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

May 8, 2025 – Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Rebounds Against Dollar as BoE Strikes Cautious Tone

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate wavered on Thursday but ultimately found a foothold, bolstered by a slightly more hawkish tone from the Bank of England (BoE) and renewed optimism over UK-US trade ties.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3329, having rebounded from earlier lows following a turbulent twenty-four hours.

The Pound (GBP) initially struggled on Thursday ahead of the BoE’s widely expected interest rate cut, but quickly rallied as markets digested the tone of the central bank’s messaging.

While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points, the decision was not unanimous, with two members voting to keep rates unchanged.

This dissent, alongside only a modest revision to the BoE’s inflation outlook, hinted at a more cautious approach to future cuts than investors had anticipated. As a result, Sterling clawed back earlier losses and even advanced against some major peers.

Adding to the Pound’s resilience was the recent optimism around UK-US trade relations. After hinting at a deal overnight on Wednesday, President Donald Trump then confirmed that a ‘full and comprehensive’ deal between the UK and US would be the first agreement announced since he introduced his ‘liberation day’ tariffs.

Coming on the heels of a UK-India agreement and amid broader signs of rebuilding post-Brexit relations with the EU, markets welcomed the news as a potential positive for the UK economy.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) managed to avoid significant losses, helped by residual strength from Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. The Fed opted to keep interest rates steady, as expected, but struck a tone that suggested policymakers were in no hurry to ease monetary policy.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this view during the post-decision press conference, indicating that the bank would prefer to wait and see how tariffs impact the US economy before acting again. He also flagged inflation risks as a key concern, which prompted investors to dial back expectations of a near-term rate cut.

This shift in outlook gave the US Dollar a lift midweek and helped it avoid steeper losses on Thursday, even as the Pound regained some traction.

Looking ahead, GBP/USD could remain sensitive to commentary from key central bank figures due to speak on Friday.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak in the morning, and any indication that the British central bank might speed up rate cuts if inflation cools more quickly could weigh on the Pound.

Later in the day, a string of speeches from Fed officials will be closely watched. If the messaging echoes Powell’s stance – favouring a cautious and data-driven approach – the US Dollar could remain supported. Conversely, if recession risks or concerns over the labour market come to the fore, the ‘Greenback’ may weaken.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

May 8, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: “Remains Range Bound” Between 1.12-1.15

The Federal Reserve’s refusal to consider any near-term cut in interest rates has supported the dollar in global markets with the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate trading around 1.1300 from 1.1270 lows.

The dollar is still being hampered by fragile underlying confidence.

ING commented; “We think there will be sustained support around the 1.1250-1.130 area in EUR/USD in the near term.”

According to Scotiabank; “EURUSD remains range bound, and its movement since mid-April has been limited between support in the mid-1.12s and resistance above 1.15.”

The Euro could gain some support if the trumpeted UK-US trade deal is short on content.

On a longer-term view, Natixis has an end-2025 EUR/USD forecast of 1.20; “As we anticipate a technical recession in the US economy, the dollar will resume its decline, given that it remains overvalued in terms of real effective exchange rates.”

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.50% at the May meeting, in line with strong consensus forecasts.

Chair Powell commented that inflation and unemployment are both likely to increase due to the impact of tariffs.

Powell repeated recent commented that the inflation and employment goals are liable to be in tension which will make it difficult for the central bank to set policy.

His key message, however, was that the Fed needed to be patient and wait for the economic data to judge the correct policy response.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia head of international and sustainable economics Joseph Capurso commented; “The FOMC does not want to pre-empt changes in the U.S. economy – it wants to wait for ‘hard’ economic data to guide its policy actions.”

He added; “From here, we expect communication from Chair Powell and other FOMC members to focus on making sure inflation expectations are anchored.”

There has been a sharp shift in market pricing with traders considering that the chance of a June rate cut has dipped to near 20%.

As far as US data is concerned, US initial jobless claims declined to 228,000 from 241,000 the previous week and slightly below consensus forecasts of 230,000 while continuing claims retreated to 1.88mn from 1.91mn.

According to ING; “Another hold from the Federal Reserve with an acknowledgement that uncertainty has increased with more upside risk for both inflation and unemployment. This suggests little inclination to move until they are confident of the direction the data is heading, meaning rate cuts could be delayed, but risk being sharper when they come.”

MUFG took a similar view; “We expect the Fed to resume rate cuts when evidence emerges that the US labour market is loosening in response to trade disruption and heightened policy uncertainty supporting our outlook for further US dollar weakness in the 2H of this year.”

According to the bank; “A delay to Fed rate cuts may help to offer some much needed support for the US dollar in the near-term although the link with short-term yield spreads has broken down recently.”

ING noted that the dollar still trades with a sizeable risk premium.

It added; “In EUR/USD that translates into around 4% overvaluation in our estimates, but the path to make markets comfortable with a substantially smaller risk premium isn’t going to be smooth. A constant flow of positive news on trade risk de-escalation is necessary, but probably not sufficient in the face of the damage markets think tariffs are already inflicting on the US economy.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

• The euro has rallied quite nicely during the trading session on Wednesday against the Japanese yen as we had bounced from a significant support level.
• The 200 day EMA is sitting right there right along with the 50 day EMA in fact, it looks like they are getting ready to cross and that suggests that we are going to see the golden cross soon.
• This is a market that probably tries to go higher based on this, assuming that we have the overall attitude staying in the market, which looks like it is favoring shorting the Japanese yen with some of the better performing currencies such as the Euro.

A rally from here probably opens up the possibility of a move towards the 165 yen level, which has been like a pretty significant ceiling here for some time. If we can clear that level, then we have the chance of breaking out. Underneath, if we were to break down below the moving averages, then we could move down to the 160 yen level, which is basically the middle of the overall consolidation.

Three Levels I am Watching

You’ll notice on the charts that I have the 155 yen level and the 165 yen level drawn out with the 160 yen level right in the middle, you can see where price has flipped there multiple times. The interest rate differential does favor the euro, although not drastically, but at the end of the day, that is something that matters.

Furthermore, I am starting to see the Japanese yen give up some of its grip on other currencies, so that might translate into higher prices here as well. Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan recently flinched when it came time to tighten monetary policy, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where traders forget that. I do favor the upside.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.