• Silver price corrects to near $32.50 as the US Dollar attracts some bids on progress in US-Japan trade talks.
• Fed Powell supports interest rates remaining unchanged until the central bank gains greater clarity.
• The US-China tariff war will keep the downside in the Silver price limited.

Silver price (XAG/USD) falls sharply to near $32.50 in Thursday’s European session after failing to extend a 10-day rally above the key resistance of $33.00. The white metal corrects as the US Dollar (USD) strives to gain ground near its recent lows. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, attracts some bids near its three-year low of 99.00.

The USD Index rebounds slightly as decent progress in negotiations on a trade deal between the United States (US) and Japan has eased some uncertainty over the domestic economic outlook. “A Great Honour to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!” US President Donald Trump wrote in a post on Truth.Social platform on Wednesday.

This appears to be a meaningful sign that Trump wants favorable bilateral trades over hefty reciprocal tariff policies. More positive outcomes of trade negotiations by Washington with other trading partners will be favorable for the US Dollar. Such a scenario will diminish the global economic uncertainty, which would lead to a decline in demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Additionally, slight hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell on the monetary policy outlook has also forced traders to book profits in the Silver price. On Wednesday, Powell said in a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago that the Fed seeks more clarity on the economic outlook before making any policy adjustments. Fed’s support for a restrictive monetary policy stance bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Meanwhile, the escalated trade war between China and the US will keep the downside in the Silver price limited. Beijing has shown a willingness for trade talks with Washington, but with respect and mutual understanding.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.28, suggesting that the near-term outlook is bullish. The white metal aims to revisit the October 22 high of $34.87.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) delivers a V-shape recovery after turning oversold below 30.00. The momentum oscillator is expected to find resistance near 60.00.

A fresh upside would appear in the counter if the Silver price breaks above the April 16 high of $33.12. The move will unlock targets of the October 22 high of $34.87 and an over-decade high of $35.50.

On the flip side, a downside move by the Silver price below the April 14 low of $31.74 will expose it to the April 11 low of $30.90, followed by the psychological level of $30.00

Silver daily chart

The

EURCAD provided bullish trading recently, to settle above the previously broken bullish channel’s support at1.5625 and record some gains by its stability near 1.578

The price success to settle above the mentioned support and stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum, will increase the efficiency of the bullish track, to expect attacking the barrier at 1.5880 soon, and surpassing it will ease the mission of recording new gains that might begin at 1.5980, while the price return to settle below the bullish channel’s support will cancel the bullish suggestion, which pushes the price to suffer several losses by reaching 1.5510 and 1.5390.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.5700 and 1.5880

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price provided a positive signal this morning by hitting the $4,7200 level, but its neediness to the positive momentum pushed it to return to provide new sideways fluctuated moves below 50%Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600.

Breaching the current barrier is important for reinforcing the chances for resuming the bullish attack, which might target $4.7500 level, reaching 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $4.8200.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5800 and $4.7500

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver price faces pressure amid improving global risk sentiment following Trump’s announcement of exemptions on technology products from “reciprocal” tariffs.
• Trump simultaneously initiated a probe into potential tariffs on critical minerals, intensifying trade tensions with China.
• Safe-haven demand for Silver is supported by ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session, paring some of its gains from the previous day. The precious metal is under pressure as global risk sentiment improves following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of exemptions for key technology products from newly proposed “reciprocal” tariffs.

The exemptions, which cover smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, and flat-panel displays, primarily benefit goods manufactured in China. However, Silver’s downside remains limited as Trump simultaneously launched a probe into potential tariffs on critical minerals, further escalating trade tensions with China. The investigation also extends to sectors like copper, pharmaceuticals, lumber, and semiconductors, highlighting the US’s limited domestic production capacity in these areas.

Safe-haven demand for Silver is also underpinned by persistent uncertainty around US trade policy, along with subdued demand for the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury securities. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around 99.50, while yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury notes stand at 3.80% and 4.30%, respectively.

Meanwhile, dovish signals from major central banks continue to support non-yielding assets like bullion. Softer-than-expected inflation in the US, Canada, UK, India, and the Euro Area in March—alongside the PBoC’s potential rate cut this quarter—further bolsters the case for precious metals.

• Gold price hits fresh record highs of $3,358 early Thursday, then retreats.  
• US-Japan trade optimism lifts risk sentiment and the US Dollar alongside.
• Heavily overbought RSI on the daily chart continue to caution XAU/USD buyers.

Gold price has paused its record run to near the $3,360 region early Thursday as buyers digest this week’s tariff play by US President Donald Trump heading into a light Holy Friday.

Gold price could extend the pullback on profit-taking

This week, the resumption of the Gold price record-setting rally could be mainly linked to the escalation of US-China trade war and the uncertainty over US tariffs’ implementation across all its major trading partners.

Increased demand for safe-haven assets and unabated fears over a potential recession in the United States (US) continued to power Gold price advance.

“Chip stocks across the globe were pummelled on Wednesday after Dutch giant ASML warned that tariffs were increasing uncertainty around its outlook for 2025 and 2026. Also weighing on sentiment was the American artificial intelligence (AI) pioneer Nvidia warning of a $5.5 billion hit after Washington restricted exports of its AI processor tailored for China,” per Reuters.

Aggravating US-Sino trade tensions, China reportedly instructed its airlines not to take any more deliveries of Boeing Co planes, Bloomberg reported. 

However, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious stance on the interest rate outlook and the US-Japan constructive trade talks remain a headwind for the bright metal, providing some reprieve to the US Dollar (USD).

At the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday, Powell said, “for the time being, we are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” Powell warned of increased stagflation risks due to the likely impact of the US tariffs.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Thursday that talks with the US were constructive, adding that the government will continue to consider trade negotiations a top priority.

In the day ahead, Gold price could see a corrective decline as traders might take profits off the table on their Gold longs ahead of the Good Friday holiday-thinned markets. Amid tariffs uncertainty, markets will prefer to reposition, gearing up for more tariff headlines next week.

In the meantime, the focus will remain on the meeting between Trump and Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni, due later on Thursday. Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that the European Union (EU) expects most of the US import tariffs to remain in place after little progress was made in the latest talks.

Meanwhile, Gold traders will also take cues from the mid-tier weekly US Jobless Claims and housing data.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays heavily overbought, currently near 75, hinting at a likely correction.

However, if Gold buyers find acceptance above the $3,350 level on a daily closing basis, the next upside target will be seen at the $3,400 threshold.

Conversely, the corrective decline could initially test the $3,300 demand area, below which the $3,250 psychological level could come into play.

Further south, Gold sellers will keep sight on the $3,200 mark.

Holding Potential Support Zone

Although a minor bearish trend continuation signal triggered today, there remains a possibility that support around the 88.6% retracement at $3.21 could hold. Notice that the lower end (25% extended) of a descending trend channel (blue lines) is nearby, and it represents an area of potential support as well. That would change on a decisive drop below today’s low. Notice that today’s high found resistance at the bottom of a lower channel line, in blue. Since that line was previously identifying support, today’s price action recognized it as resistance. This is a bearish sign as a downtrend typically progresses in this manner.

Rally Above $3.32 Could Change Bearish Outlook

A one-day bullish reversal above today’s high of $3.32 may start to change the near-term bearish outlook if it leads to a daily close above that price level. Otherwise, a decline below today’s low signals another continuation signal and improves the chance that the next lower potential support zone is tested. It starts with the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at $3.08. That is where the change in price in the two downswings of the current correction match. Once there is a match, a potential pivot level is identified, in this case support.

200-Day Moving Average Target

The 200-Day MA is slightly below that target at $3.06 and is rising. Therefore, it could converge with the ABCD pattern target upon approach. Since the 200-Day MA is a long-term trend indicator, it takes priority over the pattern target. But if the two indicators identify the same or a very similar price level, that price level gains in significance. Since the 200-Day MA hasn’t been approached as support since October 2024, it should do so if touched soon. Bearish momentum has dominated since the lower swing high (C), so natural gas would be approaching that potential support area potentially near the end of the trend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.