Brent crude oil price declined in its recent intraday trading, attempting to gain positive momentum that may help the price breach the current resistance at $64.80. At the same time, it is working to relieve the clear overbought conditions indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), supported by the strong rally seen in yesterday’s session, announcing the start of a bullish corrective wave.
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The US dollar plunged early during the trading session on Wednesday, breaking well below the crucial ¥145 level.
That being said, it looks like the buyers are coming into at least trying to support the US dollar against the Japanese yen, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.
The interest rate differential still favors the US dollar, and the way the bond market has been behaving, that’s only going to get more aggressive.
Nonetheless, the Japanese and the Americans are much more likely to come to some type of an agreement then the Chinese and Americans, so do keep that in mind. In other words, it’s very likely that the trade situation in the United States and Japan will probably normalize before it’s all said and done. However, the Japanese yen is also considered to be a major safety currency, and I think that’s part of what you are seeing here. That being said, I think we remain in a downtrend more than anything else, so you probably need to pay close attention to that.
Technical Analysis Still Looks Rough
Technical analysis in this market still looks very rough, so keep that in mind. Ultimately, this is a market that given enough time, will have to come to some type of resolution, and if we break down below the bottom of the range for the Wednesday session, we could then see the US dollar trading down to the ¥142 level. However, I also recognize that this is a longer-term “carry trade pair” for those who are willing to step in and take advantage of it. At this point though, it’s obvious that things are way too dangerous for people to think about at the moment, so with that being said, most traders I know are simply sitting on their hands.
The Japanese yen probably continues to do fairly well against most currencies in this environment, and the US dollar itself is going to be a bit of a mixed bag, because there is money leaving the United States, but at the same time, the bonds continue to show higher yields. That interest rate differential is only getting bigger.
So, with all of that being said, I think you have a situation here where you very well could see natural gas continue to be noisy, but I think ultimately the real question is, can we break down below the $3.50 level? Because if we do, then I think you have a real shot at natural gas breaking down for the season, which is what I would expect given enough time, at least in normal years, that’s what you typically see.
So, with all of that being said, I find this a market that I’m looking for signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies to start shorting. I think the $4 level will now start to act as a bit of a ceiling. And if we can break above the $4.20 level, then we could go to the $4.50 level, which I think is even more resistive. So, I’m looking for a short-term pop, signs of exhaustion, and then I short, that’s how I’ve been playing this for a couple of weeks now.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The EURJPY pair faced to resume the negative attack by attacking extra support at 159.60 level, which forces it to delay the negative attack and providing mixed trading, to settle near the moving average 55 at 161.00.
Note that the continuation of the trading stability below the bearish channel’s resistance at 163.25 that appears in the above image represents a main factor that confirms the continuation of the negativity in the upcoming trading, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering extra momentum that allows it to break the support at 157.60, then wait for reaching the negative stations near 158.90 and 157.40.
The expected trading range for today is between 159.60 and 162.20
President Trump announced an immediate tariff hike on Chinese imports to 125% shortly after China raised duties.
China’s Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% YoY in March, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase and extending February’s 0.7% drop.
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to climb for the second straight day, trading near $31.10 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session. The grey metal surged nearly 4% in the previous session, fueled by renewed safe-haven demand following escalating US-China trade tensions.
US President Donald Trump announced an immediate hike in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, shortly after China raised reciprocal duties on US goods to 84%. This tit-for-tat escalation overshadowed a broader trade de-escalation effort, where the US had temporarily lowered tariffs to 10% for 90 days to facilitate negotiations with other countries.
Meanwhile, markets are digesting the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which suggested near-unanimous concern among policymakers over the dual threat of rising inflation and slowing growth—highlighting potential “difficult tradeoffs” for the Fed.
The non-yielding Silver metal may attract fresh buying interest following the release of China’sthat Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which reinforces dovish expectations for the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) policy outlook. China’s CPI fell 0.1% year-over-year in March, missing forecasts of a 0.1% rise and following a 0.7% drop in February. On a monthly basis, CPI declined 0.4%, steeper than both February’s 0.2% decrease and market expectations. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) slipped 2.5% year-over-year, exceeding the previous 2.2% drop and the projected 2.3% decline, signaling continued deflationary pressures in the economy.
Despite intensifying trade frictions, Fed officials emphasized a data-dependent approach to policy. The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a rate cut at next month’s meeting. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming US CPI and PPI data on Friday for further clarity on the Fed’s rate path.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Platinum price continued forming the bullish correctional trading, surpassing the obstacle at $920.00, to begin recording some of the gains by reaching $930.00, getting advantage from the continuation of the positive momentum that come from stochastic, which approaches from 50 level.
Reminding you that the bullish suggestion on the current trading will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support at $895.00, to expect reaching 50%Fibonacci correction level at $950.00, and surpassing it will lead the price to test the resistance at $961.00
The expected trading range for today is between $920.00 and $950.00
Gold price consolidates the previous rebound after testing $3,100 early Thursday.
Deepening US-China trade war and renewed US Dollar downtick support Gold price.
Gold price broke the range to the upside as the daily RSI reclaimed the 50 level.
Gold buyers look forward to the US CPI data for the next trading impetus.
Gold price is biding time near $3,100 in Asian trading on Thursday, gathering strength for the next push higher. The further upside in the Gold price depends on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Gold price braces for US CPI amid US-China trade woes
Despite the latest pause in the Gold price turnaround, the US-China trade war escalation will likely keep the demand for safe havens such as Gold intact. The tit-for-tat game for the US and China is just getting bigger, with Beijing preparing to deepen the China-EU trade, indirectly taking aim at American companies, per the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
This report came after US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday a 90-day ‘pause’ on reciprocal tariffs of 10% for all countries except for China. Trump raised the tariff rate for China to 125%, effective immediately.
Earlier on Wednesday, Beijing hit back at Trump’s 104% tariffs with its own additional tariffs of 84%, up from the previous 34%, on all American goods. Amidst tariff headlines still driving markets, investors continue to remain unnerved and prefer to hold on to the traditional store of value, Gold, heading toward the US CPI inflation showdown.
Increased expectations that the Trump-inflicted global trade war would cause higher inflation and tip the economy into recession keep the odds for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) elevated. Dovish Fed bets remain supportive of the Gold price upside.
Therefore, it remains to be seen if the US March CPI report signals rising inflationary pressures, calling for the Fed’s prudence on future rate cuts. The non-interest-bearing Gold price will likely resume its corrective downside in such a scenario. However, any reaction to the US CPI data could be short-lived as tariff headlines will continue to play a pivotal role.
The US CPI is expected to rise 2.6% annually in March after increasing 2.8% in February. The core CPI inflation is seen a tad lower at 3% in the same period versus February’s 3.1%. On a monthly basis, the CPI and core CPI are forecast to rise 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, in March.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The technical setup on the daily time frame favors Gold buyers, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding firm above the midline, currently near 60.
On Wednesday, Gold price settled above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $3,036, breaking out of this week’s range and opening the door for more upside.
Softer-than-expected US CPI readings would ramp up odds for a May Fed rate cut, bolstering the Gold price recovery to test the $3,150 psychological barrier.
The record high of $3,168 will be next on buyers’ radars, above which the $3,200 round level will be challenged.
If the US inflation data comes in hotter-than-expected, it would imply another pause by the Fed next month, smashing the yieldless Gold.
Gold price could find immediate respite at the 21-day SMA resistance-turned-support, now at $3,048.
Additional declines could threaten the $3,000 mark, below which a test of the 50-day SMA at $2,960 will be inevitable.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Platinum price continued forming the bullish correctional trading, surpassing the obstacle at $920.00, to begin recording some of the gains by reaching $930.00, getting advantage from the continuation of the positive momentum that come from stochastic, which approaches from 50 level.
Reminding you that the bullish suggestion on the current trading will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support at $895.00, to expect reaching 50%Fibonacci correction level at $950.00, and surpassing it will lead the price to test the resistance at $961.00
The expected trading range for today is between $920.00 and $950.00
Platinum price continued forming the bullish correctional trading, surpassing the obstacle at $920.00, to begin recording some of the gains by reaching $930.00, getting advantage from the continuation of the positive momentum that come from stochastic, which approaches from 50 level.
Reminding you that the bullish suggestion on the current trading will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support at $895.00, to expect reaching 50%Fibonacci correction level at $950.00, and surpassing it will lead the price to test the resistance at $961.00
The expected trading range for today is between $920.00 and $950.00
Foreign exchange analysts at Rabobank have raised their exchange rate forecasts for the Euro versus the Pound Sterling.
Recent US tariff concerns have driven investors towards currencies backed by current account surpluses, benefiting the Euro (EUR).
“The Eurozone’s current account surplus appears to be a source of support for the EUR currently.”
The Euro’s resilience as a temporary safe haven reflects investors’ preference to hold cash amid market uncertainty.
“Investors appear to be sitting on cash in CHF, JPY and EURs while waiting for current fog of uncertainty to clear.”
The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains vulnerable due to the UK’s persistent current account deficit, especially when domestic fundamentals weaken.
“The UK’s current account deficit can leave GBP exposed when UK fundamentals turn sour and international investors look for the exits.”
Germany’s shift towards increased public spending, notably in defence and technology, further boosts the Euro’s attractiveness.
“Investors had already been looking for fresh opportunities in Europe, so sitting on cash in EURs may seem like a reasonable position.”
Consequently, Rabobank has raised its EUR/GBP forecast to 0.85 for the six-month horizon.
“We have adjusted our EUR/GBP forecasts higher and now see the currency pair at 0.85 on a 6 month vs. compared with a previous forecast of 0.83.”
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