Created on April 01, 2025

• Currency experts predict that the euro/US dollar exchange rate may reach 1.09 during the key tariff week.
• Currently, the euro continues to attract buying interest during periods of weakness.
• Financial markets are generally tense ahead of the tariff announcements on April 2, but the euro is not showing this and is likely to make further gains in the coming days.
• According to licensed trading platforms, the EUR/USD price is stabilizing around 1.0805, and as expected, it will remain range-bound with its current downward bias until we react to important and influential events.

Caution Dominates Financial Markets

Dear reader, beware of the “sell the rumours and buy the facts” reaction, which could support the US dollar if the US stock market recovers, as investors believe we are reaching the limits of negative US tariff headlines. However, the tariff headlines have not helped the US dollar. Despite these potential reactions, it’s clear that the US dollar will face difficulties in 2025, as Trump’s tariffs and other policy announcements have proven ineffective for the US economy.

If this trend continues, a tough tariff announcement could test the EUR/USD pair and break the 1.09 level in the coming days. Sometimes, simplification is the best approach in times of uncertainty.

Trading Tips:

The EUR/USD will remain bearish until the reaction to the US jobs data releases and the reaction to Trump’s tariffs is over.

US Data vs. Tariffs

This important week, important US economic data may overshadow the tariff headlines. It’s an eventful week in the US, as we get clear indications of how resilient the economy is in light of Elon Musk’s DOGE cuts, policy volatility, and tariffs. Surveys are pointing to a sharp deterioration in sentiment, and we’ll be interested to see if this will impact other data.

If the answer is yes, the possibility of the US dollar declining and the EUR/USD pair rising to 1.09 and above becomes a real possibility. In fact, some analysts believe that the data will be more significant for the US dollar than the tariff news.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

After retreating from its recent highs, the EUR/USD pair found renewed demand last week, confirming strong buying interest during periods of weakness. Simply put, the EUR/USD exchange rate is in an upward trend, and we expect the recent resilience to continue as a result. For this simple reason, the 1.09 level will be present over the next five days. The EUR/USD pair is trading above its nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.0815, while momentum has rebounded, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with the index pointing to a new high of 59. It is also above its 21-day EMA (1.0770), where last week’s heavy selling found strong support.

However, the situation could turn upside next Wednesday when Trump announces his “Liberation Day” tariffs, which are expected to see significant increases on EU imports. Commenting on this, some major investment bank analysts believe the decision could hinder global growth, hurt stock markets, and boost the dollar.

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April 1, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/EUR Forecast Today: Pound Euro Ticks Up as German CPI Declines

The Pound to Euro exchange rate firmed on Monday after Germany released its latest inflation reading.

At the time of writing, the GBP/EUR was trading at around €1.1972, up roughly 0.2% from Monday’s opening levels.

Despite weakening against the Pound (GBP), the Euro (EUR) managed to hold steady and even strengthen against several of its peers on Monday following the release of Germany’s latest CPI data.

The figures showed that the headline inflation rate for March declined in line with market expectations, dropping from 2.3% to 2.2%.

Germany’s harmonised inflation rate, which is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) preferred measure, also fell, coming in at 2.3% – below the market forecast of 2.4% and down from the previous reading of 2.6%.

While the data increased expectations of an ECB interest rate cut, the Euro benefited from the day’s downbeat trading conditions, which bolstered its status as a safe-haven currency and kept it afloat.

At the start of the week, the Pound experienced some volatility, gaining strength against riskier currencies while maintaining a relatively steady position against others, despite a lack of major economic news from the UK.

Sterling’s performance was largely driven by the negative trading environment on Monday.

The Pound’s increasing sensitivity to risk allowed it to advance against its riskier peers, while it remained largely stable against safe-haven currencies.

With limited economic data from the UK, GBP exchange rates were predominantly influenced by broader market sentiment during most of Monday’s European trading session.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, the primary factor influencing the Pound Euro exchange rate will likely be the release of the Eurozone’s inflation data and its latest unemployment figures.

If the Eurozone’s CPI reading cools as expected, it could further pressure the Euro, especially if the data reinforces expectations of an ECB interest rate cut.

Additionally, the Eurozone will release its latest unemployment rate, which could provide some modest support to EUR exchange rates if it remains unchanged as expected.

For the Pound, the only significant data release on Tuesday will be the UK’s final manufacturing PMI data for March.

Should the index confirm a decline in the manufacturing sector for this month, GBP exchange rates could weaken following the release.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

Created on April 01, 2025

• The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Monday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
• The market is currently hanging around a range between the 1.30 level above and the 1.2880 level or so below.
• At this point, the market is trying to work off some of the excess froth, and that does make a certain amount of sense considering that we had rallied so hard to get here.

Now we have a lot of questions about tariffs and the recession in the United States if it shows up. And of course, the Bank of England remains very hawkish. So, this does help with the British pound strengthening. The question now is, can we finally break above the 1.30 level on a strong daily close? So far, we have not been able to do so. Therefore, I think we’re somewhat stuck in this range at the moment. Changing this will take a certain amount of momentum to reenter the markets.

On a Break Lower…

If we break down below the 1.2875 level, it’s possible that we could drop from there and go looking at the 1.2750 level where the 50-day EMA currently resides. That being said, I think you still have a market that overall is very bullish, and therefore you’re looking at pullbacks as potential opportunities. While the US dollar is a bit of a mixed bag, the one thing that’s been the case for some time now is that while other currencies were falling against the US dollar, the pound was at least somewhat resilient at times and definitely much stronger than a lot of other currencies. So, if we do see the US dollar get slammed again, it would make sense that the British pound is one of the main victors in that battle.

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