Created on March 28, 2025

• The euro initially pulled back a bit from the 200 day EMA during the trading session on Thursday only to turn around and rally against the Japanese yen.
• The 200 day EMA is currently sitting just below the 162 yen level which is an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to.
• If we were to break down blow there, then I think you have a very real possibility of a drop to the 160 yen level, which is also backed up by the 50 day EMA as well as the fact that we’ve seen a lot of noise back and forth in this market.

On a Move Higher

To the upside, have the 165 yen level, which offers a bit of a ceiling. But if we were to break above there, then I think you do see the Japanese yen get absolutely hammered, probably against multiple other currencies, not just this one. A breakdown below the 160 yen level means that the yen is starting to strengthen against probably most currencies. And we could drop down to the 155 yen level. This is an area that has been very important for some time and should continue to be.

The size of the candlestick is pretty impressive, but I do recognize that there is a lot of noise above that you will have to deal with. So therefore, I do think that waiting for short-term pullbacks could be a nice buying opportunity and probably the way to go with this market. I have no interest in shorting it, at least not until we break down below the 160 yen level, which is something that would be somewhat difficult to do in this short-term environment. This is a market that will continue to be very choppy to say the least.

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March 28, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Today: GBP/EUR Rate “Subdued” amid Trump Tariff Threats

The Pound was rangebound on Thursday following US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement.

At the time of writing, the Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trading at around €1.1992, virtually unchanged from Wednesday’s opening levels.

On Thursday, the Euro (EUR) wavered against most of its major counterparts.

While it strengthened against some currencies, it weakened against others, even though the economic calendar was relatively quiet.

Despite the lack of significant data releases, the Euro managed to gain ground against several of its peers following US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement.

On Wednesday, Trump declared a 25% tariff on all non-American cars, which led to a weakening of the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, allowing the Euro to benefit from its inverse relationship with USD.

However, concerns about potential additional tariffs on the Eurozone likely limited the Euro’s upward momentum and caused it to decline against several other currencies.

On Thursday, the Pound (GBP) traded within a narrow range against most of its major counterparts, following the Spring Statement on Wednesday.

The budget included several spending cuts and a substantial downgrade of the UK’s growth forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which revised the projection from 2% to 1% for 2025.

Despite the Pound recovering most of its losses on Thursday, GBP exchange rates were unable to gain ground due to concerns over Trump’s tariff announcement on cars, which sparked fears about the future economic health of the UK.

Looking ahead to Friday, the primary driver of movement for the Pound Euro exchange rate will likely be several key economic releases from both the UK and the Eurozone.

For the Pound, the UK is set to release its February retail sales data, where the index is forecast to drop from a previous reading of 1.7% to -0.3%.

If the data meets these expectations, it could put downward pressure on GBP exchange rates, potentially closing the week on a weaker note.

On the Euro side, Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, will publish its latest GfK consumer confidence index and jobs data.

Additionally, the Eurozone is expected to release its latest economic sentiment reading.

Any negative surprises from these reports could introduce fresh headwinds for the Euro, impacting its performance against the Pound and other major currencies.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

• GBP/USD trades in a tight range near 1.2950 after posting gains on Thursday.
• Retail Sales in the UK rose at a stronger pace than expected in February.
• February PCE inflation data from the US will be scrutinized by market participants.

GBP/USD gathered bullish momentum and closed in positive territory on Thursday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase near 1.2950 in the European session on Friday as markets await the next key data release from the US.

The broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness helped GBP/USD gain traction on Thursday as the auto tariffs announcement by US President Donald Trump revived concerns over an economic slowdown.

Early Friday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported that Retail Sales rose by 1% on a monthly basis in February. This reading followed the 1.4% increase (revised from 1.7%) recorded in January and came in better than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.3%.

Although the upbeat UK data helped Pound Sterling find demand with the immediate reaction, the risk-averse market atmosphere seems to be making it difficult for the pair to stretch higher. As of writing, US stock index futures were losing between 0.2% and 0.4% on the day.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, for February. On a monthly basis, the core PCE Price Index is forecast to rise by 0.3%. A stronger-than-expected increase could support the USD with the immediate reaction and cause GBP/USD to stretch lower heading into the weekend. On the flip side, a soft reading of 0.1%, or lower, could help the pair stretch higher. Unless the risk mood improves, however, the pair’s upside is likely to remain capped.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD manages to hold above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays slightly above 50, reflecting a lack of bearish momentum.

On the downside, 1.2930 (20-day SMA) aligns as immediate support before 1.2900 (lower limit of the ascending regression channel) and 1.2800 (200-day SMA). Looking north, resistances could be spotted at 1.3000 (static level, round level) and 1.3040 (mid-point of the ascending channel).

The USD/JPY pair edged lower in latest intraday trading, after the pivotal resistance of 150.95 held on, especially as the price finished a negative harmonic pattern there, the Gartley pattern, with negative signals emerging from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels.

It comes as the price trades within an upward correctional price channel that guided recent short-term trading.