Copper price engaged in some correctional trading on Friday before settling near $5.080, while trying to approach the major barrier of $5.1700 which still represents the door towards more upcoming gains.
As the price continues to be rebuffed at this barrier, while the Stochastic is attempting to exit overbought saturation levels, the chances of a downward correctional will rise, with the price potentially heading towards $4.900, however, a breach of the barrier would send the price towards $5.2900.
Expected trading range for today is between the $4.900 support and the $5.1500 resistance.
Today’s price forecast: Bearish as the barrier holds
The recent selloffs experienced by the GBP/USD currency pair did not take it out of the upward channel that was recently formed and supported the pair’s move towards the 1.3015 resistance level, the highest for the pair in more than four months.
The recent selling losses did not exceed the 1.2888 level before closing the week’s trading stable around the 1.2916 level.
As we mentioned before, the 1.3000 psychological resistance will remain the most important for bulls to control and prepare for stronger upward breakouts.
Bank of England Cautious in Making Any Changes
Last week, the Bank of England kept the main interest rate in Britain unchanged at 4.50%, despite weak British economic growth and the country facing further uncertainty in light of the tariff policies approved by the Trump administration in the United States. In general, the decision of the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee was widely expected and came a day after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.
The meeting minutes showed that eight members voted to keep the policy unchanged, with one member supporting a quarter-percentage-point cut. The interest rate-setting committee reduced the Bank of England’s main interest rate from its 16-year high of 5.25% by a quarter-percentage-point on three occasions since last August, the most recent being in February, after inflation fell from its multi-decade highs, which exceeded 10%, reached in the wake of the sharp rise in energy prices following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
However, UK inflation, at 3%, remains above the Bank’s 2% target and is expected to rise further in the coming months, even without taking into account any tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Many economists believe it could rise to 4% in the coming months, as companies raise prices due to the large increase in the minimum wage and higher payroll taxes. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated, “There is considerable economic uncertainty at the moment. We continue to believe that interest rates are on a gradual downward trajectory, but we have kept them at 4.5% so far.”
In general, if policymakers continue their recent gradual approach, another cut is likely in May, when they will see the bank’s latest economic forecasts. Bailey added that rate-setters “will closely monitor the development of global and domestic economies” and that whatever happens, “it is our duty to ensure that inflation remains low and stable.”
Trading Tips:
The Pound Sterling is still in a strong and good position compared to other European currencies, as Britain avoiding US tariffs will support the Pound’s gains against other major currencies.
The British economy, the sixth largest in the world, achieved modest growth of 0.1% in the last quarter, a very disappointing result for the new Labor Party government, which made boosting growth its primary economic policy. Since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009, British economic growth has performed significantly below its long-term average.
Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:
According to the daily chart performance, and as we mentioned before, the 1.3000 psychological resistance will remain the most important for the upward reversal of the GBP/USD pair, which is closest to the level. Technically, the current upward trend will not be breached without the bears moving the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.2860 and 1.2745 support levels, respectively. So far, the direction of the technical indicators, the RSI and MACD, is upward. The GBP/USD pair will react today to the announcement of the PMI readings for the manufacturing and services sectors for both Britain and the United States, followed by new statements from the Governor of the Bank of England. Not to mention the extent of investors’ risk appetite.
US crude oil prices expanded the gains in latest intraday trading and confirmed the breach of the pivotal resistance of $68.00, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term as the price trades alongside the trend line, with ongoing support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.
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The USD/CAD forecast shows caution ahead of more US tariffs.
Data on Friday revealed weaker-than-expected consumer spending in Canada.
Experts believe the dollar will recover with more tariffs.
The USD/CAD forecast shows caution as market participants await clarity on Trump’s next tariff moves. The Canadian dollar ended last week higher but remains vulnerable as traders prepare for a 25% tariff on Canadian goods starting in April. Meanwhile, experts believe the dollar might rebound with more tariffs, supporting Treasury yields.
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The loonie fell on Friday after data revealed weaker-than-expected consumer spending in Canada. Retail sales dropped by 0.6% compared to estimates of a 0.4% decline. The poor report increased expectations of more Bank of Canada rate cuts. At the same time, uncertainty about looming Trump tariffs weighed on the Canadian dollar last week. Trump suspended a 25% tariff on Canada until April. With the start date looming, the outlook for Canada’s economy is dimming.
However, there was some relief for Canada’s currency as Wall Street rebounded amid hopes of a softer tariff stance. Trump said he might be open to some flexibility on tariffs.
On the other hand, experts believe the dollar will recover with more tariffs. Last week, the greenback rebounded after the Fed meeting, which revealed caution among policymakers. More tariffs will likely support Treasury yields, allowing the dollar to recover.
USD/CAD key events today
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Flash Services PMI
USD/CAD technical forecast: Price pauses near the 30-SMA support
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is facing the 30-SMA line after finding resistance at the 1.4400 resistance level. However, bulls are still in the lead because the price trades slightly above the SMA.
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On a larger scale, the price is trading in a range between the 1.4275 support and the 1.4525 resistance levels. Moreover, the range has a strong midpoint at the 1.4400 key level. USD/CAD recently retested the range support, which held firm. After this, the price broke above the SMA but paused at the range midpoint.
If the price breaks below the SMA, bears will make another attempt at the range support. A breakout will signal the start of a bearish trend. On the other hand, bulls might return to push the price off the 30-SMA and above the 1.4400 resistance. This would allow a retest of the range resistance.
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Gold price keeps the corrective downside intact toward $3,000 early Monday.
Upbeat mood on WSJ’s US tariffs report and Ukraine peace deal optimism weigh on Gold price.
Gold price stays a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade on the daily chart so long as $2,950 is defended.
The gold price is trading on the back foot early Monday, looking to continue Friday’s correction from its all-time high of $3,058. Gold price bears the brunt of a risk-on market profile, diminishing its safe-haven appeal.
Gold price finds fresh sellers; what’s next?
At the onset of a new week, the Gold price maintains its corrective downside as markets shift back to riskier assets amid renewed optimism over US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, hopes for Chinese stimulus, and a potential Ukraine peace deal.
According to the latest report carried by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the White House is expected to narrow its list of tariffs due to take effect on April 2, likely omitting a set of industry-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal tariffs aimed at countries with significant trade ties to the United States (US).
Additionally, recent news that China is looking to boost consumption remains supportive of the risk flows, as markets remain hopeful of a likely end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict following Sunday’s meeting between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that the talks on Sunday in Saudi Arabia were “productive and focused.”
Attention now turns to separate talks between Russian and US delegates on Monday regarding the Ukraine peace deal, as traders brace for the preliminary readings of global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) gauges, which will likely shed light on the prospects of the global economy in the face of Trump’s tariff-induced recession fears.
Furthermore, markets will closely monitor any developments surrounding Trump’s plans to implement global reciprocal tariffs starting April 2, which drive risk sentiment and the Gold price action in the near term.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Technically, the Gold price maintains its ‘buy-the-dips’ status amid the confirmed breakout from the ascending triangle earlier this month.
However, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing south at the time of writing, a further retracement appears to be on the cards. That said, as long as the RSI holds above the midline, any pullbacks in the Gold price will be quickly bought back into.
On the extension of the latest leg down, Gold price could test Friday’s low of $3,000, below which the previous week’s low of $2,982 will be tested.
Further south, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the triangle support confluence at $2,950 will be a tough nut to crack for sellers.
Conversely, if buyers jump back into the game, Gold price could retest the record high of $3,058 if buyers regain poise. The door will then open up to test the triangle target measured at $3,080.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Despite recent hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who pointed to a strong labor market and inflation nearing target, the dollar is struggling to maintain momentum. Powell’s remarks reinforced the Fed’s cautious tone but did little to lift the dollar amid conflicting policy signals.
President Trump’s tariff policy remains a source of uncertainty. Earlier this month, his administration proposed imposing significant fees on China-linked shipping, a move that has disrupted supply chains and pressured key U.S. sectors, including agriculture and energy.
Investors are now waiting to see if these trade stances soften following reports of renewed talks with Chinese officials.
Geopolitical Talks Ease Tensions, but Dollar Remains Vulnerable
Geopolitical developments have offered some support to risk sentiment, but not enough to drive sustained strength in the dollar. Over the weekend, U.S. and Ukrainian officials met in Riyadh, with the Biden administration pushing for a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict.
Further discussions between U.S. and Russian representatives are expected later today. While these talks reduce short-term geopolitical risk, the dollar remains under pressure amid persistent concerns around trade policy and global economic growth.
Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. PMI readings and a scheduled speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at 6:00 PM GMT for further direction.
Silver price remains steady as the US Dollar weakens amid growing concerns over a potential US economic slowdown.
Silver may encounter resistance as the Federal Reserve holds its outlook for two rate cuts later this year.
Improved risk sentiment and the White House’s revised tariff strategy could exert downward pressure on Silver prices.
Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher on Monday, trading around $33.10 per troy ounce during Asian hours after three consecutive sessions of losses. The rebound is driven by a weaker US Dollar as concerns over a potential US economic slowdown grow due to trade policies under President Donald Trump.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the USD against six major currencies, halts its three-day winning streak and trades lower near 104.10. Meanwhile, market participants await the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March.
However, Silver may face headwinds as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its outlook for two rate cuts later this year, following its decision to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5% during its March meeting. The Fed’s stance, aligning with forecasts of slower GDP growth and higher unemployment, helps counterbalance inflation concerns, which may be exacerbated by aggressive tariffs imposed by President Trump.
Additionally, Silver prices could come under pressure from safe-haven flows amid improved risk sentiment as the White House revises its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 implementation. According to the Wall Street Journal, the administration is expected to drop some industry-specific tariffs while imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries with strong trade ties to the US.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions ease following talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh on Sunday. Efforts to broker a ceasefire continue, with President Trump advocating for an end to the three-year war. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov discussed measures to safeguard energy and critical infrastructure, while US and Russian delegates are set for separate talks on Monday, according to Bloomberg.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced fluctuating intraday trading in continuous attempts to find an upward base that provides the necessary positive momentum for recovery. In these attempts, it relied on a strong support wall, namely its 50-period simple moving average, which contributed to the formation of positive candles indicating an imminent recovery. This scenario is further reinforced by the emergence of positive signals from the Relative Strength Index after it reached extremely oversold levels, along with the price trading along an ascending corrective trendline.
Our outlook remains positive for a rise in Bitcoin’s price in the upcoming intraday sessions, provided that the support level at $82,000 holds, so as to target the main resistance level at $90,000.
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The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar (NZD/USD) fell in its recent intraday trading, breaking out of an ascending price channel that had previously bounded its short-term trading, thereby signaling the continuation of that bearish corrective wave, especially with the negative pressure from the 50-period simple moving average and the influx of negative signals from the Relative Strength Index, after the pair succeeded in offloading its oversold condition.
Accordingly, our forecast indicates further declines in the NZD/USD price in its upcoming intraday trading, as long as the resistance at 0.5765 holds, targeting the key support level at 0.5690.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced fluctuating intraday trading in continuous attempts to find an upward base that provides the necessary positive momentum for recovery. In these attempts, it relied on a strong support wall, namely its 50-period simple moving average, which contributed to the formation of positive candles indicating an imminent recovery. This scenario is further reinforced by the emergence of positive signals from the Relative Strength Index after it reached extremely oversold levels, along with the price trading along an ascending corrective trendline.
Our outlook remains positive for a rise in Bitcoin’s price in the upcoming intraday sessions, provided that the support level at $82,000 holds, so as to target the main resistance level at $90,000.
To get our more detailed analysis and 100% accurate signals provided by Best Trading Signal, subscribe to Economies.com VIP Club through the link below!
