• Data showed a higher-than-expected number of unemployment claims in the UK.

• Average UK weekly earnings minus bonuses grew by 5.7%.

• The pound has gained about 2.1% in 2024 against the dollar.

The GBP/USD outlook is slightly bearish as the pound retreats from recent highs after downbeat employment figures. However, the bullish trend might continue since the dollar is weak amid an increase in Fed rate cut expectations. 

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Data on Thursday showed a higher-than-expected number of unemployment claims in the UK in the previous month. The claimant count was 32,300, compared to estimates of 23,400. Still, this was a decline from the last reading of 51,900. If unemployment is higher than estimated, the economy performs poorer than expected. This could pressure the Bank of England to start lowering borrowing costs.

However, separate employment figures revealed that average weekly earnings minus bonuses grew by 5.7%, meeting forecasts. Furthermore, data from the previous session showed that service inflation remained high at 5.7%. Therefore, market participants have lowered the chances that the BoE will cut rates in August from 50% to 40%. 

Notably, unlike other major currencies, the pound has remained resilient against the dollar this year. So far, it has gained about 2.1% in 2024 against the dollar. The recent rally came due to increased expectations for a Fed rate cut. Inflation in the US has maintained its downtrend, giving policymakers more confidence it will reach the target. As a result, investors are placing a 100% likelihood of a rate cut in September. This has pressured the dollar, allowing the pound to rally. Retail sales data tomorrow could shed more light on the UK economy.

GBP/USD key events today

GBP/USD technical outlook: Price retreats to 30-SMA after bearish RSI divergence

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is in a bullish trend that recently made a new high. However, the price is currently pulling back and is nearing the 30-SMA support. Bulls made a solid attempt to push the price above the 1.3002 key level. 

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However, as the price made a higher high, the RSI made a lower one, indicating weakness. Consequently, the price fell back below the key level. If bears are stronger, they might take over with a break below the 30-SMA. However, if the SMA holds firm, bulls might retest the 1.3002 level and break above to make a higher high.

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• EUR/USD moves sideways above 1.0900 following Wednesday’s upsurge.
• ECB is widely expected to leave policy settings unchanged.
• ECB President Lagarde’s comments on rate outlook could influence the Euro’s valuation.

EUR/USD extended its weekly rally and touched its highest level since mid-March near 1.0950 on Wednesday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase below this level as investors wait for the European Central Bank (ECB) to announce monetary policy decisions.

The persistent selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) fuelled another leg higher in EUR/USD midweek. In the absence of high-tier data releases, dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials didn’t allow the USD to stage a rebound.

The ECB is widely expected to leave monetary policy settings unchanged after having lowered key rates by 25 basis points in June.

Investors will scrutinize the statement language and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde in the post-meeting press conference to figure out whether the ECB will lower key rates again in September.

In case Lagarde adopts an optimistic tone regarding the inflation outlook, the Euro could come under selling pressure even if she refrains from confirming a rate cut in September. On the other hand, the Euro could stay resilient against its rivals if Lagarde reiterates the data-dependent approach and voices concerns over upside risks to inflation.

The US economic docket will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which is forecast to come in at 230,000 following the 222,000 reported in the previous week. A reading above the market expectation could make it difficult for the USD to find demand, while a print below 220,000 could have the opposite impact on the USD valuation.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD stays within the ascending regression channel coming from late June and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 60, suggesting that the pair remains technically bullish.

EUR/USD could face first resistance at 1.0950 (static level, mid-point of the ascending channel) before 1.0980 (upper limit of the ascending channel), 1.1000 (psychological level, static level) and 1.1030 (static level). On the downside, the lower limit of the ascending channel forms key support at 1.0900 ahead of 1.0870 (50-period Simple Moving Average) and 1.0840 (static level).

• EUR/USD moves sideways above 1.0900 following Wednesday’s upsurge.
• ECB is widely expected to leave policy settings unchanged.
• ECB President Lagarde’s comments on rate outlook could influence the Euro’s valuation.

EUR/USD extended its weekly rally and touched its highest level since mid-March near 1.0950 on Wednesday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase below this level as investors wait for the European Central Bank (ECB) to announce monetary policy decisions.

The persistent selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) fuelled another leg higher in EUR/USD midweek. In the absence of high-tier data releases, dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials didn’t allow the USD to stage a rebound.

The ECB is widely expected to leave monetary policy settings unchanged after having lowered key rates by 25 basis points in June.

Investors will scrutinize the statement language and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde in the post-meeting press conference to figure out whether the ECB will lower key rates again in September.

In case Lagarde adopts an optimistic tone regarding the inflation outlook, the Euro could come under selling pressure even if she refrains from confirming a rate cut in September. On the other hand, the Euro could stay resilient against its rivals if Lagarde reiterates the data-dependent approach and voices concerns over upside risks to inflation.

The US economic docket will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which is forecast to come in at 230,000 following the 222,000 reported in the previous week. A reading above the market expectation could make it difficult for the USD to find demand, while a print below 220,000 could have the opposite impact on the USD valuation.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD stays within the ascending regression channel coming from late June and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 60, suggesting that the pair remains technically bullish.

EUR/USD could face first resistance at 1.0950 (static level, mid-point of the ascending channel) before 1.0980 (upper limit of the ascending channel), 1.1000 (psychological level, static level) and 1.1030 (static level). On the downside, the lower limit of the ascending channel forms key support at 1.0900 ahead of 1.0870 (50-period Simple Moving Average) and 1.0840 (static level).

• The yen rose 1.5% to above 155.5 against the dollar today, its highest level in over a month, as markets reassessed monetary policy expectations for the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, and Japan’s willingness to intervene to defend its currency.
• This increase extends the rally that occurred at the end of last week, which lifted the yen from a 38-year low of 162, as Japan is likely to have sold more than $20 billion to support the currency. 

In general, the large scale of the suspected intervention in the currency markets by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, along with the weakness of the US dollar due to weak inflation data, has prompted markets to reconsider betting against the yen, and is suspected of sparking a bout of short pressure on the currency, while the momentum of the Japanese yen has slowed economic growth. Moreover, the recovery has prompted some investors not to ignore another round of intervention by Tokyo. 

On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan is expected to announce plans to scale back bond purchases and possibly raise interest rates again at its next policy meeting later this quarter. 

On the stock exchanges front, Japan’s Nikkei index falls on tech selloff. According to trading platforms, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.43% to close at 41,098 on Wednesday, reversing gains made earlier in the session, weighed down by losses in Japanese technology stocks that followed a selloff in major U.S. technology names. Clearly, the moves came as investors continue to shift to other sectors that are expected to benefit from U.S. rate cuts, with the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 currently outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Meanwhile, the broader TOPIX index rose 0.37% to 2,915 for a second straight day. 

On the local market level, A Reuters Tankan survey showed that business sentiment among major manufacturers in Japan improved to its highest level in seven months in July, despite declining confidence among non-manufacturers amid volatile economic expectations. The losses in the technology sector led the decline, with Tokyo Electron (-7.5%), Disco Corp (-4.5%), Lazartec (-5%), Advantest (-2.6%), and Rorzy Corp (-6.1%) among the hardest hit. 

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today 

The USD/JPY pair has been in a selling position following recent intervention by the Bank of Japan, but the pair may find buyers at a key support area visible on the daily chart. Technically, the price has formed higher lows connected by an ascending trend line that has held since March 2023. Thus, the retreat to this support area shows that additional levels indicated by the Fibonacci retracement tool may attract buyers. 

Meanwhile The 38.2% Fib level appears to be holding as support around the key psychological level of 156.00, but a larger pullback to the 50% Fibonacci level at 154.00 might be appropriate. Also, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligns with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the trend line at 152.05. Regarding moving averages, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA, emphasizing that the stronger path is upward or that the uptrend is likely to gain momentum rather than reverse. In this scenario, USD/JPY could revisit the swing high around 162.00 or at least the area of interest at 160.00. 

Simultaneously, the stochastic indicator is heading south, indicating that the correction might continue, but the oscillator is also nearing the oversold region, suggesting exhaustion. Moreover, a turn to the upside would mean that buyers are ready to return. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving downwards and has some ground to cover before reaching the oversold area, so the correction might persist until that happens. 

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The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently at $103.756, up 0.05%. The pivot point is $103.658. Key resistance levels are at $103.892, $104.129, and $104.455. Immediate support levels are $103.383, $103.195, and $103.019.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is $104.439, while the 200-day EMA is $104.952. These indicators point to a bullish trend above $103.658.

A break below this level could trigger a significant selling trend, potentially driving the price towards lower support levels. Monitoring these key levels will be crucial for future movements.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD currently trades at $1.09358, slightly down by 0.05%. Key levels to watch include the pivot point at $1.09242. Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.09598, $1.09778, and $1.09955, which may cap any upside movement. On the downside, immediate support levels are $1.09059, $1.08752, and $1.08594.

Technical indicators are noteworthy, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.09029 and the 200-day EMA at $1.08351. These moving averages highlight the current trend dynamics.

A bullish outlook persists above the pivot point of $1.09242. However, a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend, leading to further declines.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Analysis: Breaking the 1.30 high is still difficult 

• The recent trades show that the progress of GBP/USD exchange rate has temporarily halted near the psychological resistance barrier of 1.30 after the release of U.S. retail sales numbers, which exceeded consensus.
• Profit-taking could extend if UK inflation numbers fall below the desired level tomorrow.
• Concurrently, the pound had fallen from its recent highs against the US dollar after the US retail sales report exceeded consensus. 

According to reliable trading platforms, the GBP/USD pair fell by 0.20% during the day to 1.2940 after retail sales recorded a flat reading of 0% on a monthly basis in June, while expectations indicated a reading of -0.3%. also, Core retail sales rose by 0.4%. Clearly, this exceeded estimates by 0.1% and represents a supportive surprise for the US dollar. 

Commenting on the event and the impact. “Today’s data is another reminder that you can never write off the US consumer,” said Ali Jafari, an economist at CIBC Capital Markets. 

According to forex trading, the pound rose 2.50% against the dollar in July, on the cusp of levels last seen at this time a year ago, supported by rising expectations of a September rate cut. It will likely take a series of strong convincing data to reverse the course of a September cut. Furthermore, analysts say “will stronger consumption change the balance of evidence for the Fed and signal that demand in the economy could be picking up? We don’t think so. The accumulation of evidence showing inflation and a slowing labor market would be more than enough to convince the Fed to cut rates in September.” 

Overall, the data shows that the exchange rate’s advance has stalled just six points short of the psychological resistance level of 1.30, which would be consistent with sell orders being placed ahead of the big mark. The July 2023 high is at 1.3142, but the pound was unable to hold these levels for very long. 

In fact, what followed this high was a three-month decline that took the pair back to 1.2037. “The 1.3000 level is acting as resistance and keeping GBP/USD lower,” says Dukascopy’s technical analysis note. 

The question now is: Will we see a repeat of the fall of 2023, or will the pound’s rally have the ability to hold on and build on recent gains?  

For now, analysts believe that any setbacks are likely to be shallow. Dukascopy’s analysis shows that the 50-hour simple moving average could provide the support needed for the price to move above 1.3000. Added, “Above 1.3000, we could face resistance at the weekly R1 level at 1.3058 and the 1.3050 level.” 

Looking ahead, the next moves in GBP/USD are likely to be driven by UK data. The risks to sterling are also asymmetric: after a strong rally, we see the GBP and other GBP-based exchange rates now in overbought territory as markets see less chance of a BoE rate cut in August this year than they did at the start of July. 

Overall, if UK inflation is below expectations, the odds of a cut on 1 August will increase again, taking more heat off the GBP rally. For now, we expect weakness to be relatively contained and consistent with easing overbought conditions. 

Furthermore, services inflation is forecast at 5.6% and CPI inflation is forecast at 2.0%. Any depreciation would increase the odds of a rate cut on 1 August and lead to a sharp drop in the GBP value from overbought territory. Meanwhile, analysts at Oxford Economics believe that the headline CPI inflation rate will be 1.8%, which would be lower than expected and would lead to a sell-off in the pound. 

Technical forecasts for the GPB/USD pair today: 

The GBP/USD exchange rate continued its strong upward march after the relatively dovish Fed statement and ahead of the upcoming UK inflation data. It has risen for three consecutive days and moved to the psychological level of 1.300, its highest swing since July 2023. The GBP/USD pair continued its strong rise after Monday’s statement by Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman. In his statement, Powell welcomed the US inflation figures over the past three months, which showed stable prices. Powell is comfortable cutting interest rates this year if inflation continues to decline, although it is still above 2.0%. Now, the Fed seems more concerned about the labor market, which has weakened in the past few months. 

The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD pair has been moving in a strong uptrend for the past few weeks. Recently, it flipped the crucial resistance point at 1.2830, which is the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Also, it rose above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement point at 1.2905. The pair also moved above the upper side of the XABCD pattern, which is a bullish signal. Technically, the price remains above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into overbought territory. Therefore, it is likely to the pair will review and retest the support at 1.2893 and then resume the uptrend. If this happens, it will eventually retest the resistance level at 1.3100. 

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• Inflation in the UK remained at an annual rate of 2% in June.
• UK services inflation came in at 5.7%.
• US sales were unchanged in June, better than economist expectations for a 0.3% decline. 

The GBP/USD price analysis shows solid bullish sentiment as the pound rallies after a higher-than-expected reading on UK inflation. Meanwhile, the dollar retreated from Tuesday’s highs as the effects of an upbeat retail sales report wore off. 

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Inflation in the UK remained at an annual rate of 2% in June, higher than expectations of a 1.9% increase. At the same time, services inflation came in at 5.7%, which was higher than the forecast of 5.6%. The upbeat figures might cause Bank of England policymakers to be more cautious. Moreover, the numbers lowered the likelihood of a rate cut in August, boosting the pound.Meanwhile, the US dollar fell after rallying on upbeat retail sales data in the previous session. Sales were unchanged in June, better than economist expectations for a 0.3% decline. The report showed that the economy was doing fairly well, and the risks of a recession were low. 

However, inflation is also in a downtrend, meaning the Fed is getting closer to its first rate cut. Last week’s soft inflation figures pushed investors to fully price in the first rate cut by September, putting significant downward pressure on the dollar. As long as inflation continues falling, policymakers will be confident enough to cut rates even if the economy remains resilient. However, if inflation pauses or spikes while the economy is strong, the Fed will delay rate cuts.

GBP/USD key events today

Neither the US nor the UK will release more key reports today. Therefore, investors will keep digesting Britain’s inflation figures.

GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls breach 1.3000 barrier

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is breaking above the 1.3000 barrier with a solid bullish candle. However, it must close well above this level to confirm this break. Notably, the price has made consistent higher highs and lows, indicating a bullish trend. At the same time, it has respected the 30-SMA as support, trading above the line. 

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However, the RSI tells a different story. The indicator has made a bearish divergence with the price, which might indicate fading bullish momentum. If the bulls are exhausted, they might fail to sustain a move above 1.3000 and pull back. 

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