Crude prices recovered from their worst level after weekly EIA crude inventories fell more than expected.  Also, heightened geopolitical tensions are supportive for crude after the US seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker for sanction violations.  In addition, today’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high shows confidence in the economic outlook that is supportive of energy demand,

Concerns about energy demand are negative for crude prices after Saudi Arabia on Monday cut the price of its Arab Light crude for February delivery to customers for a third month.  

Morgan Stanley predicted that a global oil market surplus is likely to expand further and peak mid-year, pressuring prices, as it cut its crude price forecast for Q1 to $57.50/bbl from a prior forecast of $60/bbl, and cut its Q2 crude price forecast to $55/bbl from $60/bbl.

Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -3.4% w/w to 119.35 million bbl in the week ended January 2.

Strength in Chinese crude demand is supportive for prices.  According to Kpler data, China’s crude imports in December are set to increase by 10% m/m to a record 12.2 million bpd as it rebuilds its crude inventories.

Crude garnered support after OPEC+ on Sunday said it would stick to its plan to pause production increases in Q1 of 2026.  OPEC+ at its November 2025 meeting announced that members would raise production by +137,000 bpd in December, but will then pause the production hikes in Q1-2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus.  The IEA in mid-October forecasted a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026.  OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 1.2 million bpd of production left to restore.  OPEC’s November crude production fell by -10,000 bpd to 29.09 million bpd.

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries over the past four months, limiting Russia’s crude oil export capabilities and reducing global oil supplies.  Also, since the end of November, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers attacked by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea.  In addition, new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have curbed Russian oil exports.

Last month, the IEA projected that the world crude surplus will widen to a record 3.815 million bpd in 2026 from a 4-year high of over 2.0 million bpd in 2025.

Last month, OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, as US production exceeded expectations and OPEC also ramped up crude output.  OPEC said it now sees a 500,000 bpd surplus in global oil markets in Q3, versus the previous month’s estimate for a -400,000 bpd deficit.  Also, the EIA raised its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd from 13.53 million bpd last month.

Today’s weekly EIA inventory report was mixed for crude and products.  On the negative side, EIA gasoline supplies rose +7.7 million bbl to a 10-month high, a larger build than expectations of +2.0 million bbl as US gasoline demand tumbled to a 1-year low of 8.17 million bpd.  Also, EIA distillate stockpiles rose 5.59 million bbl to a 1-year high, a larger build than expectations of +1.1 million bbl.  In addition, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose by +728,000 bbl.  On the positive side, EIA crude inventories fell by -3.83 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -1.0 million bbl.

Today’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of January 2 were -4.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +1.6% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -3.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending January 2 was down -0.1% w/w to 13.811 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd from the week of November 7.

Baker Hughes reported last Tuesday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended January 2 rose by +3 rigs to 412 rigs, recovering from the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in the week ended December 19.  Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022. 

NEW YORK, Jan 9, 2026, 15:33 EST — Regular session

• Freeport-McMoRan shares were up about 4% in afternoon trading, following stronger copper prices.
• JPMorgan bumped up its FCX price target to $68, while Goldman increased its first-half copper forecast.
• Dividend record date is Jan 15, and investors are also bracing for the Jan 22 earnings report.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) shares were up $2.37, or 4.4%, to $56.59 in afternoon trading on Friday. The stock has moved between $54.22 and $56.71 and is sitting within about 1% of its 52-week high of $57.12. (Freeport-McMoRan Investors)

Copper prices climbed, lifting miners that tend to track the metal’s ups and downs. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) — a global reference price — was up about 1.8% at $12,943 a metric ton. (Business Recorder)

A day earlier, JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson lifted his price target on Freeport to $68 from $58 and reiterated an “Overweight” rating. A price target is the level an analyst expects a stock could hit; “overweight” is a bet it will beat its peers. (TipRanks)

Goldman Sachs got more upbeat on the metal this week, raising its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 to $12,750 a ton. The bank said prices have “overshot” its view of fair value, while pointing to U.S. refined-copper tariff policy as a major near-term unknown.

Macro remains a back-seat driver for metals, with traders watching the dollar and shifts in U.S. rate bets. “The bulk of the U.S. economy is trimming employment,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, after Friday’s U.S. jobs report. (Reuters)

Deal chatter in mining piled on. Rio Tinto said it’s in early talks to buy Glencore, a potential mega-merger that’s yanked the sector back into the spotlight; Rio’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.5% while Southern Copper jumped 5.9%. (Reuters)

Freeport investors have a dividend date coming up, too. On the company’s website, it lists a Jan 15 record date for a total cash dividend of 15 cents per share — made up of a 7.5-cent base payout plus a 7.5-cent variable dividend that can rise or fall with cash generation — payable on Feb 2. (Freeport-McMoRan Investors)

Earnings are up next. Freeport reports quarterly results on Jan 22, with traders zeroing in on realized copper prices and costs, plus any change in tone around 2026 output and capital spending. (Barron’s)

Still, it’s a two-way setup. Copper has been volatile even at these elevated levels, and a steeper pullback — or a policy turn on U.S. copper tariffs — would likely smack miners quickly.

For Freeport, the next dates to watch are the Jan 15 dividend record date and the Jan 22 earnings report. Until then, the stock is likely to keep tracking copper prices and whatever new twists emerge in the mining deal chatter.

Platinum price kept its stability below $2320.00 level, to confirm the stability of the bearish corrective scenario by hitting the target at $2180.00, to form some mixed waves by its fluctuation near $2260.00.

Note that the continuation of providing negative momentum by stochastic will push the price to renew the corrective attempts, to expect reaching $2180.00. breaking this barrier will extend the trading towards $2130.00, representing the next target of the current trading, while breaching $2320.00 level will cancel the negative scenario, which allows it to form new bullish waves to press again on the historical high at $2460.00 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $2180.00 and $2305.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

The market is currently straddling the key short-term support zone at $77.05 to $78.70. We’ve been watching this area all week and believe it is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

A sustained move over the upper level at $78.70 will indicate the presence of buyers. If they can build on this move with strong volume, they should have an easy time taking out the two tops standing in the way of another record high.

Key Downside Levels to Watch

If the lower or 50% level at $77.05 fails, then prices could retreat all the way back to the uptrend line that has been leading the market higher since the main bottom at $48.64 on November 21. The trendline comes in at $74.83 today. It was successfully tested earlier in the week at $73.84.

This technical indicator is important to the intermediate trend. If it is taken out with conviction then prices could retreat all the way back to a pivot at $72.41 and eventually the main bottom at $70.07.

Weak Jobs Data Ignites 6% Intraday Rally

XAGUSD jumped on Friday as investors reacted to weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs growth, tightening global supply, and rising geopolitical uncertainty. Today’s more than 6% gain at the top represented another large single-day gain that has been the norm lately and followed a volatile trading week that saw silver swing from a near-record high to nearly a one-week low.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

The market was trading nearly flat earlier today ahead of a U.S. jobs report and a widely expected ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court. A rebound began after fresh U.S. labor market data showed the economy added only 50,000 nonfarm jobs in December, far below recent monthly averages. The softer hiring numbers strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may accelerate interest-rate cuts in 2026, a move that is likely to weaken the dollar and consequently strengthen demand for dollar-denominated silver.