Modified: Thursday, 25 September 2025 22:45 BST

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Slides on CBI Miss, Dollar Surges on Robust GDP

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell on Thursday as stronger US data contrasted with weaker UK releases.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3377, down around 0.5% from the session open.

The US Dollar (USD) advanced after a string of upbeat indicators. Durable goods orders for September jumped from -2.8% to 2.9%, far surpassing forecasts of -0.5%.

Meanwhile, final second-quarter GDP surged to 3.8% from -0.5%, above the 3.3% consensus.

Initial jobless claims also fell to 218,000, underscoring labour market resilience.

The combination of stronger data boosted the Dollar across the board, reinforcing demand for the Greenback during Thursday’s European session.

The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, weakened after the UK’s CBI distributive trades survey underwhelmed. September’s reading edged up only from -32 to -29, missing expectations for -26.

The disappointment left Sterling under pressure and struggling to gain traction through the session.

GBP/USD Forecasts: US Inflation Gauge in Focus

Looking ahead to Friday, markets will watch the release of the US core PCE price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

A steady reading of 2.9% could bolster the Dollar by dampening bets on near-term Fed rate cuts.

For Sterling, a lack of fresh domestic releases leaves the Pound without direction, making it more vulnerable to broader market sentiment.

As the week closes, GBP/USD may remain driven by external factors and the strength of the US data pulse.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts