July 3, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Under Pressure vs Dollar ahead of US Jobs Data

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) edged lower on Wednesday, slipping toward $1.3640 as markets awaited key US labour market data.

While the Pound Sterling lacked direction amid a quiet UK economic calendar, the US Dollar (USD) clawed back earlier losses following stronger-than-expected JOLTs job openings.

Optimism over US employment trends helped stabilise the Greenback, which had initially come under pressure from fiscal concerns surrounding President Trump’s proposed $3.3 trillion spending bill.

With attention turning to upcoming releases including non-farm payrolls, unemployment figures, and the UK services PMI, both GBP and USD face potential volatility as fresh data shape the near-term currency outlook.

The US Dollar (USD) regained ground during Wednesday’s European session, recovering much of its earlier losses following market anxiety over President Donald Trump’s proposed spending bill on Tuesday.

The ‘big beautiful bill’, projected to add $3.3 trillion to the US national debt, had initially dragged the Dollar lower on Tuesday, as concerns grew over long-term fiscal stability.

However, the release of stronger-than-expected JOLTs job openings data later in the day helped restore confidence in the US economy, allowing the ‘Greenback’ to rally into mid-week trade.

That said, with the latest ADP employment report still to come, the US Dollar remained vulnerable.

A surprise downside in the upcoming jobs data could undermine USD strength and shift momentum as the session unfolds.

The Pound (GBP) drifted sideways on Wednesday, with a lack of fresh UK economic data leaving markets with little to respond to.

Following some early-week losses, partly linked to growing political uncertainty around the Labour Party, Sterling stabilised as trading progressed.

However, without any new domestic releases, the Pound remained largely directionless.

With market sentiment providing limited support, GBP exchange rates hovered in a tight range, unable to generate any momentum.

Looking ahead to Thursday’s European session, movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to hinge on the release of key US labour market data.

Markets will be closely watching June’s non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, both of which are expected to print below expectations.

Forecasts point to a slowdown in job creation and a slight uptick in unemployment, which could reignite concerns over the resilience of the US economy.

If the data underwhelms, the US Dollar may come under renewed pressure.

Meanwhile, in the UK, attention will turn to the finalised services PMI for June.

The index is expected to rise slightly from 50.9 to 51.3, signalling a modest but continued expansion in the UK’s largest economic sector.

If confirmed, the reading could offer some support to the Pound by reinforcing signs of steady growth.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts