Modified: Thursday, 13 November 2025 22:18 BST

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD FX Forecast: Pound Sterling Rises Despite Weak UK GDP

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) pushed higher on Thursday as an improving global risk mood helped offset the negative impact of disappointing UK GDP figures.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3154, up roughly 0.2% on the day.

The US Dollar (USD) fell on Thursday as investors moved out of safe-haven assets and back toward risk-sensitive positions following the official end of the longest US government shutdown in history.

The House of Representatives approved a funding bill late on Wednesday, with President Donald Trump signing it into law shortly afterwards.

The resolution lifted sentiment across global markets and encouraged traders to rotate out of USD, weighing on the currency.

The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, found only limited support from the softer Dollar, with gains capped by the release of disappointing UK growth data earlier in the session.

Fresh figures showed the UK economy slowed more sharply than expected in the third quarter, expanding by just 0.1%, while September’s monthly GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1%.

The weaker readings deepened concerns ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget, where speculation continues to grow over the likelihood of tax increases and further fiscal tightening.

These worries limited Sterling’s upside despite the broader risk-on backdrop.

GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Remarks in Focus

Looking ahead, GBP/USD may trade more cautiously on Friday, with no major UK or US economic releases due.

Instead, markets will turn to commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers — particularly Jeffrey Schmid, one of the more hawkish voices on the committee.

Any firm remarks on inflation risks or hints that rates may need to stay higher for longer could lend USD fresh support.

For the Pound, political unease ahead of the autumn budget and concerns over the UK’s weakening growth outlook may keep Sterling vulnerable into the weekend, especially with traders continuing to price in further Bank of England rate cuts.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts