• The GBP/USD weekly forecast remains elevated despite a pullback from the weekly highs above 1.3400.
• Fed rate cut, dismal jobless claims, and dovish tone lent fair support to the pound.
• Next week’s BoE rate decision and US CPI and NFP remain the key events to watch.

The GBP/USD price traded in a positive zone, briefly challenging the levels around 1.3400 as markets reacted to shifting monetary policy expectations and economic data. The British pound remains bid against the US dollar, despite softer UK economic data, mainly due to renewed expectations of rate cuts by the Fed in 2026.

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Sterling remained resilient as the markets broadly positioned rate differentials, favoring the GBP over a subdued USD. The GBP/USD marked multi-week highs near 1.3430 before correcting lower to 1.3360 by the end of the week. However, the pair stays underpinned amid the Fed-BoE rate differential.

The Fed rate cut and dovish signals to cut rates further into 2026 gave the pound a decisive push above key levels. Meanwhile, Thursday’s US Jobless Claims figures reflected an increase of 44k claims, adding more weight to the “labor market cooling” narrative. However, the UK GDP data on Friday surprisingly showed a contraction of 0.1%. The weak print intensified the odds of a BoE rate cut in the December meeting. However, the pound briefly dipped without sabotaging the uptrend.

Moving ahead to the next week, the GBP/USD will remain sensitive to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, the MPC vote split, and its accompanying statement. The markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a 25 bps rate cut.

From the US, NFP and US inflation will be key events to watch, as strong US jobs or elevated inflation figures could boost the US dollar, weighing on the GBP/USD. Meanwhile, softer data could offset the BoE’s rate cut pressure on the pound.

Major Releases to Watch Next Week:

• UK PMIs
• BoE Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Summary
• UK Average Earnings / Unemployment data
• US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
• US Retail Sales and PMI data

GBP/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Bullish Above 1.3350

The GBP/USD daily chart shows a strong uptrend, supported by the confluence of 100- and 200-day MAs around 1.3350. Meanwhile, the RSI remains near the 60.0 level, suggesting further room for an upside. However, a doji candle presents a mild selling pressure, attributed to profit-taking, which could resist further upside beyond the weekly highs of 1.3438. A clear breakout of this level could gather enough strength to test 1.3470.

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On the flip side, immediate support emerges at 100- and 200-day MAs near 1.3350 ahead of a demand zone near 1.3280, and then the 20- and 50-day MAs confluence near 1.3200.

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