Measured Move Targets Upside

The next key upside zone sits around $4,305, where the advance from May’s swing low mirrors the prior 37.8% rally that peaked in April. While not a guaranteed stop, gold’s trajectory—fueled by strong buyer interest—puts this measured move firmly in play. Notably, today’s low of $4,140 successfully tested the top channel line, which flipped from resistance to support after yesterday closed right at it. This seamless transition underscores the breakout’s validity, keeping the path upward clear for now.

Overbought Conditions and Momentum Clues

Gold can grind higher while overbought, and that’s the situation here: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at elevated levels, paired with a steepening slope in the advance. Behavior near $4,305 will reveal if demand stays robust enough for further gains—watch aggressively for any softening there. If strength persists, an extension of the measured move could redefine higher targets, extending the rally’s reach.

Support Levels and Trend Endurance

Near-term support anchors at today’s low of $4,140; a failure there could spark a pullback. The rising 10-day moving average at $4,018 offers the first dynamic defense, consistently holding as support in this leg up. This marks the eighth straight week of higher highs and higher lows, a testament to the trend’s resilience but also a nod to potential exhaustion—unsustainable momentum often follows such streaks.

Outlook and Key Watchpoints

The breakout confirmation keeps bulls in the driver’s seat, with $4,305 as a logical next step. Yet, overbought readings and the trend’s maturity warrant caution; a close below $4,140 flags risks to $4,018. Today’s session will sharpen the focus—strength here sustains the ascent, while cracks could prompt a healthy breather in this run.

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