Upside Targets in Focus

A decisive rally through the $3,675 record high would open the way toward higher targets. The first notable objective sits at $3,734, marked by a 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Beyond that, a key confluence zone comes into play from $3,782 to $3,812. This zone is supported by several overlapping measures, including the symmetrical triangle breakout projection at $3,786, lending greater significance to the area. The strong, low-pullback rally from the triangle breakout further supports the potential for an extension higher.

Risks of a Pullback

On the downside, a decisive decline below Thursday’s low of $3,613 could signal the start of a deeper pullback. Initial support would be seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around $3,537, while the prior trend high at $3,500 represents another key level. Below that, a broader support zone stretches from $3,451 to $3,439, aligned with the 61.8% retracement near $3,452. While a test of these lower levels would not negate the broader bullish trend, it would represent the first deeper retracement since the breakout and would be closely watched as a potential reentry point.

Bigger Picture Remains Bullish

Gold’s sharp $543 rally (18.4%) from the $3,311 swing low prior to the triangle base shows the kind of momentum still in play. A measured move of similar magnitude from the breakout suggests a potential longer-term target closer to $3,966. Even in the short term, the ability to close this week in the upper third of the range, above $3,642, highlights strong demand. The evidence continues to point toward buyers retaining control and higher targets remaining in sight.

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