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Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Near Weekly Lows, Bears Hold Short-Term Edge
20-Week Moving Average Adds to Support Confluence
The lower boundary of the triangle is reinforced by the 20-week moving average (not shown), now at $3,310 on the weekly chart. This average was reclaimed in early January and has since acted as potential dynamic support. In July, it aligned with a swing low that sparked a bullish weekly reversal and proved itself as a support line.
This alignment creates a significant confluence of support between $3,303 and $3,310. A clean break below both the lower boundary and the 20-week moving average would carry greater weight, potentially triggering a stronger downside reaction. In that case, a test of the May swing lows and the 38.2% retracement would become increasingly likely, and the odds of falling below that zone would rise.
Pattern Approaches Decision Point
Gold’s price action remains confined within a tightening consolidation, with each swing high and low narrowing toward the triangle’s apex. This suggests that a resolution — either bullish or bearish — is approaching.
On the upside, a breakout is triggered on a move above the $3,438 swing high. Such a move would signal bullish trend continuation and could pave the way for a retest of $3,500. On the downside, the first trigger is a drop through the lower boundary line, followed by a break below $3,268 to confirm a bearish breakout. Until then, gold’s consolidation reflects a market in balance, but the proximity to major technical levels hints that this balance may not hold much longer.
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