Earlier this week, gold spiked to a record high of $4181.21 but failed to build on that momentum. The rejection at $4192.86 has capped upside, while today’s action below $4100.43 signals weakening near-term sentiment. A decisive break under this week’s swing bottom at $4004.28 would confirm a bearish shift and open the door to deeper support near $3846.50 and the 50-day moving average at $3756.19.

Momentum could quickly shift higher on a sustained break above $4192.86, but until then, price action favors sellers. Notably, there’s no meaningful resistance between $4192.86 and the all-time high at $4381.44, making that level a breakout trigger if bulls regain control.

Profit-Taking, Trade Easing Weigh on Gold Market

Gold’s rally has been fueled by Fed cut bets, central bank demand, and geopolitical tension. But this week’s move lower suggests a round of profit-taking. Traders who bought the breakout above $4000 are locking in gains as headlines show easing U.S.–China trade tensions. News that President Trump will meet President Xi next week has removed some near-term tail risk.

Stronger Dollar and Yields Add to Pressure

The U.S. dollar index is up 0.6% for the week, adding pressure to gold by increasing its cost for foreign buyers. Treasury yields are also firming ahead of today’s CPI report, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.012%. Higher yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like bullion, especially in the short term.

All Eyes on U.S. Inflation and Fed Policy

The September CPI report, due at 1230 GMT, is expected to show a 0.4% rise in headline inflation and a 0.3% core print. A hot reading could dampen rate cut expectations, weighing further on gold. Still, markets are pricing in a near 99% chance of a 25 basis point cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, keeping longer-term support intact.

Gold Price Forecast: Bears in Control Below $4100.43

The near-term outlook is bearish while gold remains under $4100.43, with further downside risk if $4004.28 breaks. Bulls need a strong close above $4192.86 to regain momentum. Until then, the value zone between $3846.50 and $3756.19 remains the most attractive area for new long positioning.