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Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Rally Accelerates After $4381.44 Breakout

At 11:14 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4408.58, up $69.81 or +1.61%.

Upside Momentum Dominates Gold Market Positioning

Gold’s advance shows conviction rather than late-stage exhaustion. The metal is now up nearly 70% year-to-date, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979. Central bank accumulation, sustained portfolio hedging, and persistent geopolitical risk continue to absorb supply, keeping pauses brief and shallow.

The former resistance at $4381.44 has been decisively cleared. What capped price last week is now accepted above, reinforcing confidence that higher levels are being built on participation, not thin volume spikes.

Gold Buyers Ignore Higher Yields As Conviction Builds

A key signal today is gold’s resilience in the face of rising Treasury yields. The U.S. 10-year yield is ticking higher, yet gold shows no sensitivity. When gold rallies alongside firmer yields, it typically reflects urgency to secure exposure rather than rate-driven positioning, reinforcing the strength of current demand.

This behavior suggests positioning is being driven by capital preservation and risk hedging rather than tactical rate trades.

Rates, Policy Expectations, And Real Asset Demand Support Gold

Expectations for lower U.S. interest rates remain a core tailwind. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran reiterated that easing inflation supports rate cuts to offset labor market risks. Gold continues to benefit from lower real-rate expectations even as nominal yields firm.


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