Technically, gold held the level it needed to. The settlement at $4,198.68 is comfortably above the $4,133.95 pivot — the 50% retracement of $3,886.46 to $4,264.70. Staying above that zone keeps buyers in control and keeps a retest of $4,264.70 in play. A breakout through the weekly high would open the door to $4,381.44, the record high.

If sellers push through $4,133.95, the first real support sits at $4,075.58. A deeper pullback would target $3,886.46 — the main bottom that halted October’s slide and matches the top of the $3,846.50–$3,720.25 intermediate retracement zone. That zone remains the best long-term value area, though reaching it would require the narrative to shift materially.

Fed Week: Will Powell Reinforce the Gold Rally or Stall It?

Next week’s FOMC meeting is the entire focus. The committee is split, and Powell has avoided committing to a move. Doves like Williams and Waller argue for more easing; hawks like Collins want to hold steady. Desks expect at least two dissents — rare, and a reminder that the policy debate is far from settled.