Technically, the main trend is up. A trade through $4,550.15 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down according to the weekly swing chart if $3,886.46 is taken out with conviction.

In between these two points is a retracement zone at $4,218.30 to $4,139.99. Trader reaction to this area should set the near-term tone. If buyers come in on the first test of this zone, then a new secondary higher bottom could form, eventually leading to a test of the record high at $4,550.15.

On the flipside, a failure at $4,139.99 will be a sign of weakness and lower prices to follow. This could create the downside momentum needed to drive XAUUSD into the main bottom at $3,886.46.

Long-Term Value Zone: Where the Smart Money Waits

For longer-term traders looking for the best value zone, the weekly chart is flashing a support cluster at $3,543.50 to $3,471.98. The first support is 50% of the rally from the November 2024 bottom at $2,536.85, and the second is the 52-week moving average at $3,471.98. The moving average is the long-term trend indicator. As long as this indicator holds as support, the market will remain in “buy the dip” mode.

Venezuela Crisis Injects Fresh Uncertainty

Fundamentally, news over the weekend injected a fresh dose of geopolitical uncertainty into the gold market. Throughout the week, gold traders will be monitoring new developments in Venezuela after the U.S. launched a military strike and “arrested” President Nicolás Maduro on criminal charges.