NEW YORK, March 22, 2026, 2:24 PM EDT

U.S. natural gas opens the week trading close to $3.10 per mmBtu, following Friday’s settlement for the front-month April Henry Hub contract at $3.095. The main issue up ahead: will renewed U.S.-Iran tensions targeting Gulf energy sites send gas prices higher along with the broader energy sector as trading kicks back in? MarketWatch

Timing’s in play here. Henry Hub heads into the spring shoulder season—right between peak winter heating and the ramp-up for summer cooling—just as the global LNG crunch gets sharper. After Thursday’s price jump, Reuters said Saturday that the EU pushed members to scale back gas-storage refill goals to 80% from 90%. Officials, it seems, want to avoid fueling more upside. Reuters

Right now, U.S. weather looks mild. NOAA’s new 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts show most of the lower 48 heading for warmer-than-average temperatures, except the Northeast, which still stands apart. That mix suggests heating demand should ease off heading through late March into early April. Climate Prediction Center

Storage numbers are pointing in that direction. The Energy Information Administration logged a 35 billion cubic feet injection for the week ending March 13, taking total inventories up to 1.883 trillion cubic feet—2.6% higher than the five-year average. The next update lands March 26. EIA Information Releases

The bullish factor is coming from abroad. On Thursday, Reuters reported that Iranian strikes have taken out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity — that’s 12.8 million tonnes per year — and repairs could stretch from three up to five years. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said force majeure might have to be declared on some long-term supply deals to Europe and Asia, a move that would let the company suspend deliveries after such disruptions. Reuters

Analysts aren’t ignoring the risks. Saul Kavonic at MST Financial described the situation as a “doomsday gas-crisis scenario.” Tom Marzec-Manser of Wood Mackenzie added that gas prices in Europe and Asia are set to “remain elevated for longer,” as power generators and industrial players look to alternative fuels when possible. Reuters

Politics over the weekend just added to the confusion. On Sunday, Reuters said President Donald Trump warned he’d destroy Iran’s power infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz was cleared for shipping in 48 hours. Iran, for its part, fired back, threatening energy and desalination facilities across the Gulf. IG analyst Tony Sycamore labeled the standoff a “48-hour ticking time bomb” for markets. Reuters

Domestic supply isn’t looking tight enough yet to spark a breakout. U.S. gas rigs fell by two to 131 this week, according to Baker Hughes—the lowest count since early February. Even so, the EIA projects U.S. gas output will climb, reaching 109.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 from 107.7 bcfd in 2025. Reuters

That’s part of the reason gas-linked stocks can move out of sync with prompt futures. Cheniere and Venture Global both jumped after Qatar revealed the extent of the damage, while Reuters noted buyers are putting more focus on supply outside the Middle East. Companies like NextDecade and Sempra are increasingly seen as players in the longer-term replacement mix. Reuters

The week sets up for a clear divide. No new Gulf gas or LNG disruptions? Traders may pivot back to the mild U.S. forecast and the early pace of storage injections. But if weekend threats materialize and outages crop up, Henry Hub might begin tracking global moves more closely than it has recently. Climate Prediction Center

Summer’s still in focus on the strip. CME quotes put May at about $3.07 per mmBtu, with June bumped up to $3.20, July holding $3.47, and August at $3.56. Each contract remains above April’s $3.10. Traders are watching three things to break the standoff: Thursday’s storage print, the latest weather models, and any sudden headlines from the Gulf. CME Group