Dogecoin price could reach new all-time highs if DOGE captures between 25% to 40% of Bitcoin ETF inflows following its ETF approval.

The crypto market is currently witnessing a period of sustained downtrend, and Dogecoin (DOGE), the original meme coin, has not been spared in the bloodbath. DOGE is already down 20% this month following a 38% collapse in February.

Dogecoin ETF Progress Sustains Long-Term Bullishness 

Despite the downward trend, with Dogecoin now trading at a pre-Trump presidency low of $0.16, long-term sentiments remain bullish. One of the motivations behind this sustained bullishness is the potential approval of Dogecoin ETF products, especially amid progress with the recent change in SEC leadership.

For instance, the securities regulatory agency acknowledged Grayscale’s filing for a Dogecoin ETF last month. While this acknowledgement did not translate to an outright approval, it set things in motion for the investment product. In addition, last week, the NYSE Arca submitted a 19b-4 filing for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF. 

As asset managers continue to make progress in their Dogecoin ETF filings, the potential impact on Dogecoin price if these products secure approval would depend largely on how they perform. Notably, Ethereum’s price did not react favorably to the launch of ETH ETFs due to low capital inflows. 

However, this was not the case with Bitcoin, as the launch of Bitcoin ETFs last year triggered an impressive price run for the firstborn crypto, leading to a new all-time high before the next halving for the first time in the asset’s history. For context, data from Sosovalue confirms that BTC ETFs have commanded up to $35.4 billion in inflows at press time.

Dogecoin Price if DOGE ETFs Secure up to 40% of Bitcoin ETF Inflows

Accordingly, if the Dogecoin products secure approval and replicate even a fraction of Bitcoin’s performance, the impact on Dogecoin price could be massive. For this assessment, The Crypto Basic considers just 25% to 40% performance.

Notably, if Dogecoin ETFs get 25% of Bitcoin ETF inflows after a year in the market, they would command positive netflows worth around $8.85 billion. Applying the Bank of America inflow-to-valuation multiplier of 118x would yield a market cap increase of $1.044 trillion for Dogecoin.

An increase of $1.044 trillion to the meme coin’s already existing market cap leads to a new valuation of $1.067 trillion. With Dogecoin’s circulating supply currently sitting at 148.39 billion tokens, this new market cap translates to a Dogecoin price of $7.1.

Meanwhile, if Dogecoin secures 40% of Bitcoin ETF inflows, it would boast netflows worth $14.16 billion. This inflow would lead to a massive $1.67 trillion increase in market cap when applying the BoA multiplier. Currently, DOGE has a market cap of $23 billion. An additional $1.67 trillion valuation leads to a new market cap of $1.69 trillion.

Now, considering the current circulating supply of 148.39 billion tokens, this new market cap translates to a Dogecoin price of $11.41. Nonetheless, these assessments remain speculative, as there is no guarantee Dogecoin ETFs could secure this much capital inflow.

Interestingly, while these projections remain ambitious, market analyst Ali Martinez predicts a more audacious Dogecoin price of $15 after ETF approval. At press time, Dogecoin currently changes hands at $0.1617, down 19% over the past week.