Domestic Legislation Tackles Copper Theft Crisis

While tariffs and mining challenges dominate international copper headlines, the U.S. faces domestic supply pressures from theft. In California, Assembly Bill 476 was introduced to curb rampant copper wire thefts that have blacked out public infrastructure across Los Angeles. The bill, which passed committee by an 18-0 vote, would enforce stricter licensing for copper sellers, mandate reporting by recyclers, and revise penalties to reflect the full cost of damages. For utilities already squeezed by high copper prices, this legislation could provide a safeguard against mounting operational losses. The theft issue underscores how copper’s surging value, now flirting with all-time highs, has spilled into social and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Strategic and Market Outlook

The convergence of a 50% U.S. tariff baseline, production disruptions in Chile, institutional repositioning in Brazil, and rising domestic theft in the U.S. has created a rare cocktail of volatility for HG=F copper futures. The divergence between COMEX at $13,000 per ton and LME prices under $10,000 shows just how fractured global copper pricing has become under tariff pressure. Investors must weigh whether these conditions justify further upside, or if the arbitrage window signals a corrective phase ahead. With Ero Copper beating on profits but facing selling from one of its largest institutional holders, and Capstone Copper balancing short-term operational strain against long-term project optimism, the equity side of the copper trade offers selective opportunity but rising risk.

Given the policy backdrop, copper’s outlook leans bullish in pricing but fragile in fundamentals. The tariff regime is poised to elevate costs across supply chains, but also incentivizes domestic investment. For investors in miners like FCX, ERO, and CS, the key question is whether operational execution can match market enthusiasm. At current levels, copper equities demand close scrutiny, with valuations likely to stretch further if tariffs translate into sustained price floors above $11,000 per ton on COMEX.

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