Created on November 11, 2024

• At the end of last week, the Euro attempted to recover from its strong losses against the US Dollar amid the strength of the latter following Trump’s re-election as US President.
• Last Friday’s gains for the euro against the US dollar EUR/USD did not exceed 1.0805 before closing trading stable around 1.0717.
• Also, its losses in the US presidential election week extended to the support level of 1.0682, the lowest for the euro/dollar pair in more than four months.
• Today is a holiday in the US markets, which may weaken liquidity in the markets, and accordingly the euro/dollar price moves in narrow ranges until the announcement of US inflation figures.

The EUR/USD currency pair recorded a weekly decline, under pressure from the strength of the US dollar and political turmoil in Germany, as the coalition government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed in the middle of last week. In this regard, opposition leaders and businesses have called for new elections to reduce uncertainty. The week also saw the re-election of Donald Trump as US president, raising concerns in Europe about potential economic impacts, including tariffs on major industries such as cars and chemicals, as well as security and support for Ukraine.

On another front affecting the market, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, in line with expectations. The European Central Bank is expected to follow suit with a 25-basis point cut in December, with financial markets expecting a decline to 2% by June.

According to stock trading platforms, US stock indices hit new record highs. According to trading, US stocks continued their upward momentum to close at record levels at the end of last week’s trading, supported by optimism about Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s favourable interest rate cut. According to performance, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.4% to record a new record, after exceeding the 6,000 thresholds during the session. The Dow Jones also closed at a record high, adding 259 points to reach 44,000 for the first time, while the Nasdaq posted modest gains.

The best-performing sectors were utilities, real estate, and consumer staples, while materials stocks lagged. Tesla shares jumped 8.2% to $321.22, as the company achieved a trillion-dollar valuation for the first time in more than two years. Exxon Mobil shares rose 28.7% after raising revenue guidance. Obviously, the rise was driven by a 0.25% cut in US interest rates, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirming confidence in the economy.

Over the course of last week’s trading, the S&P 500 and Dow rose 4.6% and 4.8%, respectively, their strongest performance since November 2023, while the Nasdaq led the gains with a 5.8% gain.

EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:

According to the performance on the daily chart, the general trend of the Euro against the US Dollar EUR/USD is bearish. As we mentioned before, stability around and below the support level of 1.0800 will remain a catalyst for the bears to control the trend. Also, the continuation of Trump’s previous policy may expose the Euro/USD currency pair to more losses. The closest support levels in that time frame are 1.0660, 1.0580, and then 1.0400, respectively, which are sufficient levels to push all technical indicators towards strong oversold levels. On the other hand, and in the same time frame, the current trend will not be broken without stability above the resistance of 1.1000 again.

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