Fed Interest Rate Decision and Powell’s Press Conference

While economists speculate about the timing of a BoJ rate hike, the Fed will take center stage later on Wednesday, October 29.

Economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Unless there is a surprise 50-basis-point cut, Fed Chair Powell will set the tone for markets. Support for a December rate cut to bolster the labor market and acknowledgement that inflation has peaked could send USD/JPY toward 150 and the 50-day EMA. If breached, the 200-day EMA would be the next key technical support level.

The US government shutdown could extend to day 29, leaving the Fed flying blind on crucial labor market data. Fed Chair Powell had already taken a more dovish stance before the shutdown as labor market data signaled weaker conditions.

Beyond Fed Chair Powell’s views on interest rates, there is also the potential winding down of Quantitative Tightening (QT).

On October 14, 2025, Fed Chair Powell gave his strongest signal on QT, stating:

“Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions.”

He also noted that there were early signs of tightening liquidity conditions.

Notably, winding down QT would also narrow the US-Japan rate differential, favoring the yen, potentially being compounded by a hawkish BoJ policy stance. This scenario could trigger a market event similar to the yen carry trade unwind on July 31, 2024.