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USD/JPY Outlook: Economic Indicators and the BoJ

• Bullish Yen Scenario: Strong Japanese data, intervention threats, or a hawkish BoJ rhetoric could push USD/JPY toward 153. If breached, the 50-day EMA and 149.358 would be the next key support levels.
• Bearish Yen Scenario: Weak data or a dovish BoJ commentary may send the pair toward 155. A sustained move through 155 would bring the 156.884 resistance level into play.

Crucially, a rise toward 155 could raise expectations of the Ministry of Finance warning of an intervention, mirroring events in 2024. The potential for intervention will likely be the key downside risk for USD/JPY in the near-term, given that MoF warnings tend to follow sharp yen depreciation.

While Japanese economic data, BoJ forward guidance, and intervention threats will move the dial, traders should closely monitor US data, Fed chatter, and developments on Capitol Hill.

Labor Market Data, the ISM Services PMI, the Fed, and Capitol Hill in Focus

Traders may continue to face heightened USD/JPY volatility amid shifting sentiment toward the Fed and BoJ’s policy outlooks. Meanwhile, US Senate votes, economic data, and Fed commentary will also influence USD/JPY trends. Key events for the week ahead include:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (November 3): Expected to rise from 49.1 in September to 49.2 in October.
• JOLTs job openings: (November 4): Economists expect job openings to drop from 7.227 million in August to 7.2 million in September.
• ADP Employment Change (November 5): Forecast to rise by 25k in October after falling 32k in September.
• ISM Services PMI (November 5): Expected to increase from 50.0 in September to 51.0 in October.
• Initial Jobless Claims (November 6): Dependent on the US government reopening. Expected to rise from 218k week ending September 20 to 259k week ending November 1.
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November 7): Forecast to rise from 53.6 in October to 54.0 in November.
• Nonfarm payrolls (November 7): Dependent on the US government reopening. Expected to rise 55k in October after September’s 61k increase.
• Unemployment rate (November 7): Dependent on the US government reopening. Forecast to remain at 4.3%.
• Average hourly earnings (November 7): Dependent on the US government reopening. Expected to increase 3.6% year-on-year in October, down from 3.7% in September.

US Data and Fed Speakers to Drive Fed Rate Cut Bets

Weaker-than-expected US labor market data, slower service sector activity, and falling consumer confidence may revive bets on a December Fed rate cut. A more dovish Fed policy stance could push USD/JPY toward 153. A break below 153 would enable the bears to target the 50-day EMA and the 149.358 support level.

Stronger-than-expected US labor market data, a higher ISM Services PMI reading, and a pickup in consumer confidence could temper expectations of a December Fed rate cut. A more hawkish Fed rate path may drive USD/JPY toward 155. A breakout from 155 could pave the way toward the 156.884 resistance level.

Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ speeches for views on inflation, the economy, and the timing of further rate cuts.

Short-term Forecast:

• Bullish US Dollar Scenario: Strong US economic data and hawkish Fed commentary may send USD/JPY toward 156.884.
• Bearish US Dollar Scenario: Weak US data and dovish Fed rhetoric could push USD/JPY toward 149.358.

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, USD/JPY continued to trade above the 50- and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bullish bias.

A break above the October 31, 2025, high of 154.415 could pave the way toward 155 and the February 2025 high of 155.880. A sustained move through 155.880 may open the door to retesting the 156.884 resistance level.

On the downside, a drop below 153 could bring the 50-day EMA and the 150 psychological support level into play. If breached, 149.358 would be the next key support level.