Meanwhile, US economic data and FOMC members have fueled speculation of a December Fed rate cut, signaling a potential narrowing of US-Japan rate differentials, and favoring the yen. Monetary policy divergence could materially alter USD/JPY’s recently bullish trajectory, placing a greater emphasis on incoming data.

Japan Leading Economic Index in Focus

On Wednesday, November 26, Japan’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) will provide insights into business and consumer sentiment at the end of the third quarter. Economists expect the LEI to rise from 107.0 in August to 108.0 in September.

A higher LEI reading could point to increased business investment and higher wages, aligning with updates from wage negotiations. Crucially, higher wages could boost households’ purchasing power, leading to higher spending and rising demand-driven inflation. Furthermore, improving consumer sentiment may also translate into an upswing in private consumption.

For context, the LEI dropped to 104.2 in April, its lowest level in two years before edging higher. LEI trends reflected trade developments. These trends suggest a September pickup, given that the US lowered tariffs on Japanese goods to 15% in September. The softer yen could also lift sentiment, given that USD/JPY strength would offset the effect of tariffs on company profit margins.