Softer wage growth, a sub-100k increase in nonfarm payrolls, and a higher unemployment rate could raise bets on a December rate cut. On the other hand, strong data could temper expectations for a December Fed rate cut.

In summary, rising bets on a December Fed rate cut on weak labor market data could drag the USD/JPY pair below 147.5. Conversely, upbeat labor market data may drive the pair toward 155.

Other US data include finalized private sector PMI and consumer sentiment numbers. However, barring marked revisions, they will likely play second fiddle to the labor market reports.

Short-term Forecast:

Near-term USD/JPY trends will hinge on upcoming Japanese and US data. Monetary policy divergence favoring the Japanese Yen could drive the USD/JPY below 147.5, while falling bets on a Fed rate cut or BoJ rate hike may push the pair toward 155.

Investors should stay alert, monitoring real-time data, central bank views, and expert commentary to adjust trading strategies accordingly. Don’t miss crucial market movements. Follow our real-time FX updates and stay ahead in the markets here!

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

The USD/JPY sits below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.

A USD/JPY break above the 200-day EMA could signal a move toward the 50-day EMA and the 151.685 resistance level. A breakout from the 151.685 resistance level may enable the bulls to target the trend line.

Investors should consider the economic indicators and central bank commentary, potentially affecting USD/JPY price trends.

Conversely, a drop below the 148.529 support level could bring the 147.5 level into play. A fall through 147.5 may give the bears a run at the 145.891 support level.

The 14-day RSI at 38.45 suggests a USD/JPY drop below the 148.529 support level before entering oversold territory (RSI< 30).